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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk August 3

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Sep. corn contract settled 16 cents higher at $8.10, while the Dec. futures corn contract closed 11 3/4 cents higher at $8.07 1/2. The August soybean contract finished 3 1/4 cents higher $16.56 1/4, Nov. soybean futures closed 12 1/4 cents higher at $16.28 3/4. Aug. soyoil futures trade $0.50 higher at $52.04. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $7.90 higher at $531.60. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.71 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 207 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

The Sep. corn contract is trading 15 1/2 cents higher at $8.09 1/2, while the Dec. futures corn contract is trading 13 1/2 cents higher at $8.09 1/4. The August soybean contract is trading 2 1/2 cents higher $16.55 3/4, Nov. soybean futures are 7 cents higher at $16.23 1/2. Aug. soyoil futures trade $0.66 higher at $52.20. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $6.50 higher at $530.20. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.89 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 249 points higher.

 

One analyst says, "We are higher on the weaker US Dollar and also on the low production estimates that we have seen this morning.  Wheat has been the leader, and Chicago Dec found stops above 900 to take it to its highs.  Pretty impressive market action, but the fundamentals of low production still support high prices. There has been some small farm-selling on the rally here and in South America.  Most of the buying seems spec to me.  Very little demand news, but Darrell Good talking about ethanol demand remaining high is helping demand ideas as it runs against the grain.  But, I agree with his analysis, the prices are high enough to keep crushing either way.  We are exporting the stuff after all. So, the mandate might not change much, especially if a storm does in fact impact production of crude etc., next week.  Prices up sharply in petroleum area today on the storm ideas and maybe on ideas someone might bomb Iran."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Sep. corn contract opened 9 cents higher at $8.03, while the Dec. futures corn contract opened 9 cents higher at $8.05. The August soybean contract is trading 12 cents higher $16.65 3/4, Nov. soybean futures are 11 cents higher at $16.27. Aug. soyoil futures trade $0.46 higher at $52.00. The Aug. soymeal futures opened $5.30 higher at $529.00. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.98 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 232 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

At 7:35am:

Here are estimates from Alpari LLC ahead of next Friday's August Crop Report:

 

Corn= 11.75 billion bushel crop, with a 134 bu./acre average yield

Soybeans=2.89 billion bushel crop, with a 38.8 bu./acre average yield.

All-Wheat=  2.160 bill. bu. crop, with a 45.20 avg. yield.

 

Ending Stocks

U.S. corn=915 million for 2011/12, and 750 million for 2012/13.

U.S. soybeans=165.00 million bushels for 2011/12 and 115 million bushels for 2012/13.

U.S. wheat=743 million bushels for 2011/12, and 664 million bushels for 2012/13.

 

 

Any thoughts on those corn and soybean yield estimates? I heard, yesterday, that some believe Iowa's soybean yield avg. could be as low as 20 bu./acre.

 

Mike

---------

At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 5-7 cents lower, soybeans 8-9 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher. 

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.96 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, as the market awaits the U.S. Monthly Jobs Report and July's Unemployment Rate Report.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mixed, Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 3

[ Edited ]

Southern Indiana and southern Illinois received better-than-expected rains overnight. Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota crops are the recipients of this morning's rainfall, according to the lastest Freese-Notis Weather Inc. radar:

 

InterRAD-2.gif

 

Otherwise, I've heard that rain has been taken out of the Midwest forecast for the weekend. We could see a wild Sunday night market, don't you think?

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 3

i wish I knew what my beans would make, I'd roll them up for hay otherwise.   thats a really low bean carry out for 2013 isn't it? 

 

I was a little afraid that we might slip into a world depression, but with the jobs slowly coming back think we have avoided this? 

I know that a good urban ecnomy usually means higher interest rates which can be bad for farms economy but you got to take the good with the bad right?  

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 3

Farm Futures pegs corn crop at 9.86 bln bu w avg yield of 117.6 based on producer survey & other analysis

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 3

Farm Futures survey - soybean crop just under 2.7 bln bu on yield of 35.8 bpa matching yield mode

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 3

Fits our findings RT WeydertAgrivisor ArlanFF101lanworth out this morning with a barely 10 bbu crop for their mean guess

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk August 3

Mike, that sounds like a close estimate of what the USDA report will say.  I don't think it's a close estimate  as far as what the real numbers are gonna end up.   I would sooner believe Arlan Suderman......

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,034
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk August 3

I believe the USDA passed out the rose colored glasses early and is still wearing them.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Frequent Contributor
mid-west
Posts: 26
Registered: ‎10-01-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk August 3

The weather has backed the USDA into a dark corner. The sun glasses have to come off soon.
Advisor
Red Steele
Posts: 4,565
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 3

Over the years, Arlan Suderman has been right more than most of the high priced marketing advisors. I tend to agree with his current assessment and that is still going to be a lot of corn and soybeans. Market forces will be able to allocate 10 billion bushels of corn and 2.7 billions bushels of soybeans without chaos but some are going to get a pretty good haircut when they find out they were on the wrong side of this market. This is NOT going to be a 135 bpa corn and 40 bpa soybean scenario. Not unless they find out a way to spin straw into gold in the next few weeks.

"Peace on earth would mean the end of civilization as we know it" Joseph Heller