08-06-2012 06:15 AM - edited 08-06-2012 03:06 PM
After the close:
USDA drops corn, soybean ratings by 2% Monday. Corn falls to 46% very poor-poor, soybeans to 35% very poor-poor.
Good/excellent for corn has been dropped by 1% to 23%, and soybeans unchanged at 29%.
What do you think? Soybeans received enough moisture to stabilize?
At the close:
The Sep. corn contract closed 7 cents lower at $8.03, while the Dec. futures corn contract finished 2 1/2 cents lower at $8.05. The August soybean contract closed 48 3/4 cents lower $16.07 1/2, Nov. soybean futures settled 44 cents lower at $15.84 1/4. Aug. soyoil futures finished $0.56 lower at $51.48. The Aug. soymeal futures closed $13.30 lower at $518.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.73 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 72 points higher.
The Sep. corn contract is 9 1/4 cents lower at $8.00 1/4, while the Dec. futures corn contract is trading 6 3/4 cents lower at $8.00 3/4. The August soybean contract is trading 28 3/4 cents lower $16.27 1/2, Nov. soybean futures are 33 3/4 cents lower at $15.95. Aug. soyoil futures trade $0.49 lower at $51.55. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $8.20 lower at $523.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.31 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 69 points higher.
One analyst says, "Traders are pricing in the weather, regarding the areas that saw better-than-expected rain over the weekend. "Most of the heavy rain was in the eastern Crain Belt.
Today's low could hold as a low for the next three days as traders will begin to get positioned for Friday's USDA Crop Repor. "No one will want to be short Friday. So ,expect short covering and speculators will be buyers, fearing another bullish report on lower production and ending stocks," he says.
Yet another analyst agrees that weather is driving the markets lower.
"Yes, improvement in Iowa and points east, although some got skipped. Hearing definite improvement in eastern Corn Belt soybeans, with new growth and lots of flowers," he says.
At the open:
The Sep. corn contract opened 11 3/4 cents lower at $7.98 1/4, while the Dec. futures corn contract opened 9 1/4 cents lower at $7.98. The August soybean contract is trading 39 cents lower $16.16, Nov. soybean futures are 40 cents lower at $15.88. Aug. soyoil futures trade $0.63 lower at $51.41. The Aug. soymeal futures opened $12.00 lower at $519.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.52 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 88 points higher.
--USDA announces Monday that China bought 106,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.
What to Watch:
From this department, Friday's August USDA Report will be the main attraction this week. Also, Wednesday, Russia holds a meeting on food security. Demand is being eyed. Darrell Good, University of Illinois, wrote a paper last week that says a lot of things about ethanol. But, one of the points that I picked up on is that because the petroleum companies have switched to using ethanol to get their product to a certain octane level, eliminating its use will be tough and unlikely anytime soon. For this reason, don't expect demand destruction in ethanol, the paper seemed to be saying.
--China's Grain & Oils Center says its country's soybean imports could drop in August to 4.5 mmt, and below 4.0 mmt in Sept., according to a Dow Jones Newswire story. The fall in imports is due to higher CBOT soybean futures prices.
The trade sees a 1-2% decline in this afternoon's Crop Progress Reports. Also, don't look now but we may be seeing August weather that could be wetter and cooler. If corn is anything like me, it sure enjoyed yesterday!
Technically speaking, Tom White, FutureRoad.net analyst and CME Group corn pit floor trader, says the corn market looks 'wedgy'.
"The market traded in both directions last week, but generally remained biased to the long side. While there were several reversal patterns which contributed to a bearish intra-day bias on several occasions, the fact that we still show positive reversal potential on the daily charts continues to keep the influence to the long side. While we were unable to penetrate the early week $8.20 3/4 high on the move higher on Friday, positive reversals still remain to $8.26, $8.33, $8.39, if we get a resumption of buying this week. The counter-argument is that the market is looking “wedgy” and forming a triangle on the top and that RSI is topping around the 60 level on the 2 and 4-hour charts. These are indicators of a potential change of direction. As stated above, our bias remains to the long side, but we will keep our eyes open to whether the topping patterns will win out."
Early calls: Corn 5-7 cents lower, soybeans 25-28 cents lower, and wheat 5-7 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.59 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, as Europe shows signs of hope that eurozone goc't bond purchases will happen in time to help curb a financial crisis.
More in a minute,
08-06-2012 09:05 AM
I don't believe China will slack off on buying soy. They are over 55 million MT a year. IF they do they will go to reserves, and their reserves always get replaced. This keeps the pressure on.
08-06-2012 09:45 AM
.... continues to be downgraded. Their TOTAL grain crop will likely end up at 70 MMT. Just India's rice is 170 + MMT. They are now facing lower prospects due to a low monsoon rail total, especially in some areas. The may return to an embargo on rice if the trends continue.
08-06-2012 06:13 PM
(Page 1 of 7)
OMAHA (DTN) -- Half of the nation's corn crop was rated poor to very poor as of Sunday, Aug. 5, according to USDA's latest weekly Crop Progress report. That compares to 48% last week. The percentage of the soybeans rated poor to very poor increased to 39% from 37% last week.
Weekend rains were heavier than expected in some areas, which tipped the futures markets to the bearish side Monday. But that wasn't enough moisture to matter for much of the already-gone corn crop. Some soybean fields will benefit, and if the rains continue, we may see some improvement in crop ratings in coming weeks.
"The DTN Corn Condition Index is at a paltry 1 point," said DTN Analyst John Sanow. "This is below last week's 8 points and significantly below last year's 137 points.
"As mentioned in this space on several occasions, it's not a matter of whether USDA will lower their current 146 bpa estimate but rather by how much. This report should be considered bullish as a large drop in the harvested acreage number will have to be accounted for as well."
Sanow continued, "The DTN Soybean Condition Index dropped another 13 index points from last week to 52 points, continuing to run well below last year's 144 points when final yield settled at 41.5 bushels per acre.
"How much this past weekend's rain will help is also put into question given 71% of the crop was reportedly setting pods as compared to the five-year average of 53% while 93% of the nation's crop was blooming. This report should be considered bullish."
08-06-2012 06:47 PM - edited 08-06-2012 10:45 PM
Having benefitted from a couple of significant rains in July, and knowing what my own soybeans look like, one can only hope that those receiving some rain this past weekend will continue to do so [along with everyone else]. When you're 10-15+ inches short on moisture, a weekend shower event might help things look a little better for a couple of days, but it doesn't end the drought.
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08-06-2012 07:15 PM
One analyist says new growth and lots of flowers because of the weekend rains in the eastern belt. So all this happened in one day yesterday I clall bs hes just talking his position. Did it help the beans sure it did , but new growth in one day it reminds me of all the 90 day corn that was said to have been planted llast spring these analyst don't have a clue about agronomiics.
08-06-2012 08:51 PM
Hey Hobby, I'm not sure that the traders remember that this spring they were pushing things down because of the early planting and that that means we are a month ahead of normal. So how much does September rain help the corn?