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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,186
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk August 6

[ Edited ]

VIDEO: Corn Use For Ethanol To Flatten Out, USDA says

 

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At the close:

The Sept. futures corn contract settled 3 cents higher at $4.72. The Dec. corn futures contract closed 2 cents lower at $4.59. The Aug. soybean futures contract finished 6 cents lower at $13.24, new-crop Nov. soybeans settled 16 cents lower at $11.67. Sept. wheat futures closed 5 cents higher at $6.50 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures ended $5.90 per short ton lower at $345.70. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.62 lower at $42.59.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.55 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 96 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

 

--USDA announces Tuesday that China bought 110,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.

--Egypt has tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Sept. delivery.

--The Goldman Roll out of September futures starts Wednesday.

 

 

Mike

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At 7:55am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 1-2 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 2-4 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 1-2 cents lower and soybeans are seen 6-8 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.40 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen lower.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly lower and Europe's stocks are mostly lower. 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,677
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk August 6

Grain buyer in KC yesterday quoted informa at 14+B.  Elated with the big crop to come.  

It was annoying at first and he did not understand why the producer is not also excited.  I started to repeat my dad's lecture on selling something you don't have.  But then I remembered------ that is his world, trading something he doesn't have or own.

 

It was a reminder of how much a drought and short crop hurts us all.

sw
Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 220
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk August 6

When the August report comes out, will it address acres of corn that will be harvested?  I have a real problem with the 89+ million acres, that are to be Harvested for Dry Grain.  When I look at the State by State numbers of the June report, I find the amounts of increase, hard to believe.

Senior Contributor
farsider
Posts: 184
Registered: ‎06-28-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk August 6

NASS doesn't start using FSA numbers until later, they might have revisions from the soybean resurvey but the corn number will probably remain the same. Look back at 2011 and see how NASS didn't adjust until October.
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,677
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: Floor Talk August 6

Mike,

 

The domestic marketers are playing this "big crop getting bigger" theme because it is working.  It is shaking some new crop loose.

 

What are the chances that the domestic market, being short on supply going into harvest, looses the first 30% of the crop to export business in a fire sale??  

 

I'd like to see a few more years where we don't just give away our extra supply.  And if it must be, at least do it when we have it, not when the bins are empty.

sw
Veteran Contributor
Kstater85
Posts: 114
Registered: ‎06-28-2012
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Re: Floor Talk August 6

The fire sale you speak of is going on right now........  Ukrainian and Brazilian corn is $0.60 a bushel cheaper than our new crop.  

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,186
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk August 6

farmer46,

 

Allendale releases its Crop Production estimates:

Slight changes to acreage (harvested corn -250,000 and harvested soybeans -500,000) were made. True acreage changes will not be shown until survey data is reconciled with FSA insurance data in October.
 
Corn - Allendale estimates yield at 156.2 vs. USDA July 11 guess of 156.5. Record yields in IL, IN, OH, and MI partially offset problems in the West.
 
Soybeans - Old crop stock expected lower than USDA July due to domestic crush. USDA delay recognition until the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Allendale estimates yield at 43.35 vs. USDA July 11 guess of 44.5.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 220
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk August 6

Thanks Mike, first corn planted around May 20 started to tassel, looks good, but slow growth rate here.  I guess I went with 89 day corn near the lake Mich and not my  normal 87 day, may have to pay the price for getting greedy.

Advisor
Red Steele
Posts: 4,579
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

60 cents a bushel cheaper?

December Corn is less than $4.60....are you saying that competing Ukraine and Brazil bids are going to drive this market below the $4 mark?

 

Sources????

 

 

Or when you say "newcrop", are you really referring to late season US "old crop" vs Ukraine and Brazil supplies of their current crop???

"Peace on earth would mean the end of civilization as we know it" Joseph Heller
Senior Contributor
too close for comfort
Posts: 224
Registered: ‎05-11-2010
0

Re: 60 cents a bushel cheaper?

I've wondered about that too. Is their COP $.60 lower that ours? Do they have as much per bushel into it as we do? If they do what does it mean for them next year? Cost cutting?