08-09-2013 07:15 AM - edited 08-09-2013 11:19 AM
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At mid-session, the Sept. futures corn contract is 6 cents lower at $4.67. The Dec. corn futures contract is 6 cents lower at $4.53. The Sep. soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents lower at $12.20, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 3 cents lower at $11.81. Dec. wheat futures are trading 6 cents lower at $6.47 per bushel. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.07 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 107 points lower.
At the open:
At the open, the Dec. corn futures contract opened 1/2 of a cent lower at $4.59. The Sep. soybean futures contract is trading 11 cents higher at $12.39, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 7 cents higher at $11.92. Dec. wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $6.57 per bushel. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.56 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points lower.
For most of the week, the trade has been talking about how Monday's USDA Crop Production Report will be bullish. However, some see the market reacting negatively to a USDA/NASS US corn yield at 159 bushels per acre or higher, along with a crop estimate of 14.00 billion bushels. Soybean yield average is seen coming in around 43-44 bu./acre.
What do you think? Are the high plant populations going to push those above average Indiana, Illiniois, Ohio crops up?
What will you be watching for, Monday?
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 7-9 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 3-5 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 1-2 cents lower and soybeans are seen 7-9 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.59 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen lower, headed for its worst week since June.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher and Europe's stocks are mostly higher.
More in a minute,
08-09-2013 08:27 AM - edited 08-09-2013 08:31 AM
Well for sure, most of the passengers are on one side of the boat. Is it time for a hard rudder and some gas just for fun?
Beans have stood up to the corn trend really well--------- in spite of that super duper bigger than ever Brazil crop last spring that we don't here about any more. Man those guys down there are getting the shaft.
08-09-2013 09:19 AM
Good morning !
As far as the report - Will the USDA lower acres - then raise yield - would guess to 160.5 or 161
Exports - USDA has us at 700 for the year - some say were on pace for 750 -- SSSSSSOOOOO do they raise exports to ? Say 725 ?
Then about IN, OH, IL - it's not about them states -- it's about every state East of the river - I think IF !! We make it to harvest with this crop - it could be a near record for us - we have been a little on the dry side BUT have been getting JUST enough timely rains to get us by -- BTW 8 tenths last night . - I would look for US to get bigger not smaller in numbers .
Move over Iowa - there's a new sheriff in town
08-09-2013 09:51 AM
08-09-2013 10:00 AM
The trade has been talking about a bullish report on Monday? News to me. Most of what I have read has been just the opposite. The spin folks put on this marketing stuff every day is incredible.
08-09-2013 10:03 AM
Iowa has some excellent corn too. Some of it is in my area. I don't think we are beat up enough to loose our #1 ranking. Just too many acres to be knocked off easily. Nebraska with their irrigation has a better chance than Indy-who? .
Remember Southern Iowa has converted millions of acres of hay and pasture to row crops the last 5 years and they don't help average yields BUT they produce millions of bu's.
08-09-2013 11:09 AM - edited 08-09-2013 11:12 AM
To your point, this trader is bearish Monday's USDA Report.
"I am seeing rain in forecast for Monday in Iowa. Plus, Lanworth was 159 today most at 158-159…lack of rain is keeping us from talking above trend. But, I bet high plant population will have the USDA writing the crop up. For beans, the concern is the acreage survey and will we get surprised by a big drop in planted acres. So, I doubt the USDA will come off sharply in yields. But, most of the survey is 2 bushels lower, realizing many of those forecasts are for 'final', not the survey. There is little the field survey can do but count acres and plant population. So, I am a little bearish; crush markets and import margins in China are not that good for the moment. They (China crushers) passed on their own internal auction for beans.
Delta farmers are seeing bumper crops in corn and beans, with harvest well under way on corn.
South Korea is still buying South American corn 50 cents cheaper than the US. India is issuing more wheat licenses. FSU offering wheat 50 cents cheaper than US.
We still need a 1 inch rain across Iowa and Illinois and then I can be even more bearish. I am sort of at an $11.30 objective in beans. And $4.40 in corn. If we start to gain confidence in southern Hemisphere crops in December, then we can grind lower.
It’s a shame the Congress did not get an updated farm program in place.
The $3.30 corn and $8.80 bean supports at least would be a back stop, next spring, if Brazil/Arg have bumper crops.
Mike, the farmer is also way behind on marketing. The commercial short in the commitment of trader report is the lowest we have seen in years."