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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,127
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk December 12

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March futures corn contract settled 2 cents lower at $7.25. March soybean futures contract closed 1 cent higher at $14.73. March wheat futures ended 9 cents lower at $8.12 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.66 lower at $49.54. The Jan. soymeal futures contract finished $3.90 per short ton higher at $452.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.12 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 28 points lower.

 

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March futures corn contract is trading 4 cents lower at $7.24. March soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $14.73. March wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $8.15per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.20 lower at $50.00. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.30 per short ton higher at $450.40.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.00 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points higher.

 

Mike

----------

At 10:25am:

 

Dan Looker, Agriculture.com's Business Editor reports 2013 corn prices could average over $7. What do you think?

 

Full story appears here.

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading unchanged at $7.28. March soybean futures contract is trading 4 cents lower at $14.66. March wheat futures are trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $8.21 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.15 higher at $50.35. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.90 per short ton lower at $446.20.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.17 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

At 6:10am:

--We contiue to see world buyers overlooking U.S. corn. On Wednesday, a South Korea buyer purchased 238,000 mt of corn, and only 40,000 of it is of U.S.-origin. The rest is from South America.

--A South Korea company Wednesday bought 110,000 mt of soybeans from Brazil at a price that was $1.69 per bushel over the May CME Group price. Earlier this year, the same company passed on buying U.S. soybeans at a price that was $2.53/bushel over the CME Group's May  futures contract, according to the Dow Jones Newswire.

--A South Korea buyer seeks 24,000 mt of U.S. wheat for April-May delivery.

The differen---Japan seeks 320,000 tons of feed wheat, barley in a Dec. tender.

--Japan bought 52,560 tons of feed wheat, barley Wednesday.

 

Mike

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At 6:00am:

Early calls:  Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 7-9 cents lower and wheat 1-2 cents lower

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.40 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, as traders eye the Fed's move to open a fresh round of bond buying. 

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,098
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

Mike,

 

What is the main factor driving Soybean prices down?  Demand is good, the report was bullish, am I missing something?

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,127
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

[ Edited ]

giolucas,

 

It's all about the date being 12-12-12. It has to be. This whole ship is going down because of 12-12-12. :smileyhappy:. I digress.

 

Because outside markets are favorable, I suspect that it's profit-taking. I'll do some digging. In the meantime, anybody else have a guess?

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 144
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

My guess is that traders were expecting a MORE bullish report than what was delivered.

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,098
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

Thanks Mike. :smileyhappy:

Veteran Contributor
Kstater85
Posts: 114
Registered: ‎06-28-2012
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

I think the North American producers are not giving enough weight to the size of the upcoming South American bean harvest.  Latest word is that Brazil will be over 83MMT.  As this crop gets bigger the funds have less interest on the long side.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,127
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

[ Edited ]

Kstater85,

 

I am hearing the drop in price, overnight, was due to some fund liquidation. But, there is trade talk that China bought a few more cargoes of U.S. soybeans, overnight. Also, tomorrow's export sales are expected to be bullish for soybeans. And, today's crush report is expected to show record-large figures. So, a lot of bullish talk out there for soybeans. As far as Brazil's crop, yes it is almost all in the ground. So, the planting nervousness is ending. But, keep in mind, planting weather is different than growing weather. The market wants to see this record crop grow.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,568
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Floor Talk December 12

So..................If the US exports it's way to an almost zero soybean carryover and South America has a record crop,  is this bullish or bearish? 

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Contributor
Kstater85
Posts: 114
Registered: ‎06-28-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk December 12

If you want my opinion I think it is both........... to be expressed by bull spreads.   The market needs prompt shipment and that is a USA only proposition.   SO.... be long the front.    Starting in FEB-MAR when we begin to ship SA stocks the worm turns and the USA will be a domestic only market.  SO ... sell the back.

 

FWIW -- I also think the SX13 will attract too many acres (78M ?) and find it hard to believe we will maintain the current prices. 

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,038
Registered: ‎10-17-2012

Re: Floor Talk December 12

Ok here fellars , this is just my thoughts and you get what you pay for ! lol

 

1. On corn , i read this morning from LaSalle -- and this is pretty good here , that the cenus trade data for Oct. were released and Corn exports were only 68 ML. Bu.-- down 45% from a year ago !   OK here ,if you would happen to be standing ---- sit down ,

The IMPORTS of corn for Oct. were 266 MMT !!!!!!  YES IMPORTED corn ! --- AND there is consistenly 3-4 cargoes designated for ???????? the good old U.S.A. !

 

Yes here in the eastern orn belt - we are short corn BUT  the good ole boys down south would have to pay 30 over PLUS 90 cents to get it there , Why do that when they can buy S.A. corn for 25 a ton cheaper and from what I'm getting , that 25 less is after it's shipped .

 

I would like to say -- Thank you Bunge and Cargill and the others for lookingout for your good customers here !

 

Then that takes me to beans --- just reread the above and put beans instead of ccorn and you'll have it .

 

So what if we run out of beans ? the big boys will just ship in the the cheaper stuff and resell it or use it .and i would bet there is some already on the books for here .  

 

Then lets look at Bunge MTG ( thats here ) remeber back a month or two - i posted they were importing corn in here --- on rail ? they have there Must have needs  probiably covered = they don't have to pay higher basis to get corn in , basis has gone from +20 to +6 cash and + 12 for jan .

 

For somebody going for the grandslam in corn -- the only hope in my book is to wait till july -- maybe everbody else in the world will finally run out !

 

Remeber --- No Charge !  lol