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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,901
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk December 12

[ Edited ]

It's opening day for the Successful Farming Marketing Academy. Hello everyone, we are coming to you live from the lovely Sioux Falls, South Dakota. It's 10-degrees at 6am, but the temperature is expected to dip to 1-degree by 9am. This is perfect weather for learning marketing skills. It's the site of the first session of the SF Marketing Academy. With a full room of farmers eager to learn more about managing crop marketing risk, let the charts fly, and the fun begin. Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities and team are excited to get underway.

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 10 3/4 cents lower at $4.28. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 22 1/4 cents lower at $13.21. March wheat futures are 9 1/2cents lower at $6.31 per bushel. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $9.30 per short ton lower at $429.60. The Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.53 lower at $39.87.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.95 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 100 points lower.

 

What's taking this market down?  One analyst just told me, "Profit taking...plain old profit taking."

 

Mike

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At 8:55am:

 

USDA releases strong weekly export sales report Thursday.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $4.38. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 2 3/4 cents higher at $13.46. March wheat futures are 1cent lower at $6.40 per bushel. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.50 per short ton lower at $438.40. The Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.16 lower at $40.24.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.10 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 6:10am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.21 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Slightly higher.

Wall Street=Seen higher, ahead of retail sales numbers.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower, Europe stocks lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

 

 

Senior Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,021
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

What's driving us down Mike.

sw
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,901
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

sw363535,

 

Soybean meal and soyoil sales are down sharply, sending prices lower. Plus, a rising Dollar is hurting the markets, and a general sell-off mentality in the overall stock market. It's a combination of the three.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
giolucas
Posts: 1,058
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

The export sales report did not help any. 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,901
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

Poor soymeal sales are trumping the strong soybean sales.

 

Mike

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 2,924
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

[ Edited ]

decide for yourself - if one can rationalize that sales are paltry or not strong enough, ok then.

 

                             :          ------------------ 1000 METRIC TONS ------------------
ALL WHEAT      : 11/28       255.0          0.0       25.8     369.4    5287.5
                            : 12/05       389.5          0.0       17.3     563.2    5096.5

WHEAT PRODUCTS : 11/28         8.8          0.0        0.0       1.6       9.7
                                       : 12/05         1.2          0.0        0.0       2.0       8.9

RYE            : 11/28         0.0          0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0
                    : 12/05         0.0          0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0

OATS           : 11/28         0.0          0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0
                     : 12/05         0.0          0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0

BARLEY         : 11/28         0.0          0.0        0.0       0.4      50.3
                        : 12/05         6.7          0.0        0.0       6.2      50.8

CORN           : 11/28       686.3         68.0       24.7    1042.1   17898.9
                       : 12/05       951.8          1.2      255.2     977.5   17616.9

GRAIN SORGHUM  : 11/28         7.0          0.0        0.8       5.5    1435.8
                                    : 12/05       298.8          0.0        8.6      17.9    1708.1

SOYBEANS       : 11/28      1440.2        183.1      451.9    1878.1   20305.9
                            : 12/05      1196.3          2.4       85.4    1711.3   19703.2

SOYBEAN CAKE & : 11/28       130.0          0.0        9.6     317.9    3894.1
                    MEAL     : 12/05       195.8          0.0      113.1     334.3    3642.5

SOYBEAN OIL    : 11/28         2.2          0.0        0.8      29.0     185.3
                              : 12/05         4.8          0.0        2.4      29.3     158.3

ALL RICE       : 11/28       119.1          0.0        1.3      72.9     649.8
                          : 12/05        14.6          0.0        1.7      63.6     599.1

               :          ---------------- 1000 RUNNING BALES ------------------
ALL UPLAND     : 11/28       249.4          0.0        0.8     106.5    4099.9
   COTTON      : 12/05       174.4          0.0        0.3     165.2    4108.8

 

 

from FAS website............
-

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 2,924
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

source: cmegroup.com

 

Export demand news continues to come in much better than expected but a massive increase in supply suspected for 2014 remains as the primary bearish force. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 1.108 million tonnes for the current marketing year and 413,900 tonnes for the next marketing year for a total of 1.522 million which was near twice trade expectations. As of December 5th, cumulative soybean sales stand at 96.4% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 69.3%. Sales of just 37,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA.  Cumulative meal sales stand at 61.6% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 47.6%. Sales of 85,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,901
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

Risk marketing is underway:

 

Marketing Academy.jpg

 

Real engaged entry level risk management students. Farmers from Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Iowa, S. Dakota, N. Dakota.

 

Mike

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 2,924
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

Mike, can you say if there is anyone "noteworthy" in the photo, aside from Mr. Kluis?

 

thanks

Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,327
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk December 12

[ Edited ]

Wow cx -1

 

Kind of really stepped in it with that last comment....EVERY one of those farmers is noteworthy. In my opinion more so than Kluis. They actually produce a tangeable product needed to sustain life.

 

Have to give you a -1 on that one.

60% of the time, it works every time.


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