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12-13-2012 06:51 AM - edited 12-13-2012 02:18 PM
At the close:
The March futures corn contract finished 5 cents lower at $7.20. The Jan. soybean futures contract finished 3 cents higher at $14.77. March wheat futures ended 4 cents lower at $8.07 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract finished $0.29 lower at $49.25. The Jan. soymeal futures contract settled $4.20 per short ton higher at $456.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.77 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 90 points lower.
One analyst sizes up today's trade like this: "Beans are up on export sales and also ideas of a big NOPA crush estimate tomorrow are supporting the beans, with better weather in south America keeping selling on the deferreds. Corn and wheat do not have the demand ideas and so people are muc h more bearish there. Funds mostly selling and getting out for the year, as well. Some spec buying in beans, some commercials there as well. I think mostly spec selling against little buying interest in the grains, although bouts of buying were seen earlier and not sure who that was."
At mid-session,the March futures corn contract is trading 6 cents lower at $7.18. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents higher at $14.80. March wheat futures are trading 6 cents lower at $8.06per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.29 lower at $49.25. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.00 per short ton higher at $456.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 54 points lower.
At the open:
At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $7.26. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 14 cents higher at $14.87. March wheat futures are trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $8.11 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.26 higher at $49.81 The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.70 per short ton higher at $456.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.51 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6points higher.
The USDA releases bullish Weekly Export Sales Report for soybeans Thursday:
Corn exports totaled 272,600 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 150,000-400,000 mt.
For soybeans, USDA pegged exports at 1.32 million mt vs. the trade's expectations of 550,000-900,000 mt.
Wheat sales totaled 573,500 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 300,000-600,000 mt.
For soybean meal, the report shows 271,900 vs. the trade's expectations of 200,000-350,000 metric tons.
One analyst says, "The beans came in bullish as expected, as rumors last week had China in buying. With today's exports sales to China at 1.008 m.m.t., up from 509 t.m.t. last week and the weekly totals for the second consecutive week over 1 m.m.t. This helps confirm talk December will be a big bean export month, with Chinese purchases exceeding last month. Corn sales as expected were weak, as the US government continues to ration the crop by discouraging sales. Wheat exports were better on the week but expected with the Egyptian purchase on the report. Only surprise was the size of the China number. Beans and wheat traded higher and corn lower after the reports release. But, the days end will show us strength on anticipation of better exports next week for beans or like last week, trade it for today then back to South America's weather effect on newly planted beans.
Hot off of the Dow Jones Newswire, Thursday:
--S. Korea feedmiller buys 69,000 mt of corn, with the origin left open for June delivery. Buyers are leaving their options open as to where the corn comes from to gain better pricing between U.S. and South America.
--S. Korea flour mill buys 24, 100 mt of U.S. wheat Thursday.
--Japan buys 134,157 tons of milling wheat, origin unknown.
--Strategie Grain estimates EU's 2013-14 corn output at 63.0 mt, up 16% vs. a year ago. Wheat output was raised 9% at 134.2 mt.
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents lower and wheat 1-2 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.57 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening mixed as hopes fade for another Fed stimulus package. Today, data to be released on first time claims for jobless benefits.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mixed, and Europe's stocks are lower.
More in a minute,
12-13-2012 07:18 AM
So, there seems to be world demand for grains, as prices setback. But, it's interesting that the U.S. is getting so much more competition from other corn suppliers. The buyers seem to be thinking, Hmmm, let's see. The U.S. drought continues and that could push up prices for my future purchases. So, I better buy now from Brazil that is sitting on plenty of corn and is expected to have boat loads more next year. This is a pretty easy decision.
Wheat seems to be a different animal. No country is really stepping up and admitting they have plenty of supply. So, the world wheat market seems to be more competitive, with the U.S. product gaining favorability.
Separately, I read on this site, a number of stories from Jeff Caldwell on farmers in the market for more farmland. Land prices are staying high, but farmers sitting on cash are in the buying mood. At the same time, the other side of that story is that there are a lot of farms being sold right now. The Wall Street Journal put together a piece on farmers (or family of a farmer that passed away now facing tax issues) that fear future crop and land prices going down are selling out and taking the money. Is this happening in your neighborhood? If so, where does marketing come into play? Is there fear that crop prices will sink, crop insurance won't be enough, a new farm bill will cut farm payments?
12-13-2012 07:41 AM - edited 12-13-2012 07:43 AM
Mike, how is it possible to buy grain for June delivery without determining who you are buying from? Is it a wish list they are talking about. How can you leave your option open where it is coming from unless you are buying from one vendor. It is like saying your going to buy a new car in June, but you don't know what brand or from what dealership! What kind of contract is that?
12-13-2012 07:44 AM
I live in an area that has historically very tightly held farms. There hasn't been maybe one farm that has sold due to the tax subject. It was an investor that held it for 30 years and now sold it. I really don't think most of the general public, included those who are absentee farm land owners don't realize what is going on. They see land going up in value, We'll just hold, I expect to see more land sales when values begin to decline, that will correspond with interest rate raising and a better place to park their money.
I want to buy another farm but I don't have the cash, So I'm just sitting here waiting, if one comes up that I think is worth it I'll buy it. Even with the idea that I think land values will decline in the future.
12-13-2012 08:40 AM
"Corn exports totaled 272,600 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 150,000-400,000 mt.
For soybeans, USDA pegged exports at 1.32 million mt vs. the trade's expectations of 550,000-900,000 mt."
Sure isn't going to take long for history to repeat it's self. Sell all you have now and import it back later in the same year. Good work for the longshoremen. The pipeline will need a pump on both ends. "Just in time" production and manufacturing ... nothing like living on the edge.
45 days and counting. 80 days till the boats can arrive loaded.
12-13-2012 08:45 AM
There is corn exported out of Brazil every year......most of the time it doesn't get this level of attention, but with global supplies quite tight at the present time, every piece of business seems to get a lot of scrutiny these days...
Brazil grew about 2.867 byn corn in last year and exporting about 825 million, so about 28%+
quite likely that the shipping pace of Brazil corn will slow down in the late Jan through April/May time period when the heavy focus will be on getting soybeans to port and exported...
BUT.....when we get to the J/J/A period of time, there is going to be a very steep inverse between cash corn at that point in time and the new crop price strucuture......so there will be a very strong incentive to get a lot of corn loaded out in the summer months....
going to be more about basis and inverses than cash price in that situation....