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12-13-2012 09:15 AM
I wouldn't worry too much about the US corn exports being slim....When other countries that export corn run out, those that import will be back at our table. We need to keep that corn here for our own domestic use anyways. Of course did anyone ever stop to think that 2012 US corn crop has been overestimated......again.....and there really might not be all that much corn here in the US to export anyways?
12-13-2012 02:03 PM
Quote form THE eye : So, there seems to be world demand for grains, as prices setback. But, it's interesting that the U.S. is getting so much more competition from other corn suppliers. The buyers seem to be thinking, Hmmm, let's see. The U.S. drought continues and that could push up prices for my future purchases. So, I better buy now from Brazil that is sitting on plenty of corn and is expected to have boat loads more next year. This is a pretty easy decision
That was the point i was trying to point out yesterday Mike , Thanks !
And MT - yes i do believe the USDA will lower the acres = less bu.we have but as Mike pointed out we have less demand = more carry , so its a wash , the biggest unknown is feed useage , and just me thinking out loud again , but the USDA is to low on that number , there is still alot of animals on feed here . If there is a game changer on corn this will be it .
Mike any guess on the feed issue ?
Thanks -- Ken
12-13-2012 02:35 PM
How many acres do you think we lose.....better yet what size do they put on the crop.......
Im stickIng to my guns.......Jan report is bullish as hell for corn and soya.........been in this camp since the oct report was a lie........
Soya production number is too high........usage too low.........corn production number is too high, usage probably close if exports stay soft......
12-13-2012 04:07 PM - edited 12-13-2012 04:11 PM
My guess is that they drop the harvested acres by 2% or 1.95 million acres which should equate to around 250 million of lost production using a 122 yield but we may see a yield under 120 for around 350-400 million of less supply.
In previous drought years the average harvested acres were well under the 90.5% figure they are now showing. In 2002, harvested acres were 88% of planted, 1997 came in at 86%, 1988 at 86%, and 1983 was a 85.5% level.
I believe that the higher price this year than in those years encouraged a higher % of acres to be harvested which could drop the overall average yield under 120 per acre if that is the case.
Just my thoughts.
If I knew for sure, I would not be working for a living.
12-13-2012 04:55 PM
CF ---- very ------ Good --- Post !
I was thinking more on the line of - a million or alittle more less on acres , but would like your thinking !
great stats !
MT the only thing is that you said that beans production is to high , I'm going that they ------------ may be alittle low - would not be surprised if they don't raise them alittle BUT as far as exports , we are are on a pace to met theUSDA number by March ,, for the year , this is a WTF moment of ole ECIN hey will have to make a adjustment there i would think . But the increase in yield will = exports .
As of the start of the new crop year (sept 1) weekly ethanol production is on a grind of 4580 -- so were on track with the USDA 4500 .
CNOIC estimated that Chinese imports will be down 54% this year , only 2.5 mmt compared to 5.35 imported this year .
So my friends -- i don' t have a clue as to what will happen , but my gut feeling is the same as MT on the corn bull even at this point it sure hasn't played it's hand .
have a good evening !
12-13-2012 07:33 PM
"Additionally, there is still a lot of safrinhacorn left in the silos of Mato Grosso and that corn will need to be moved out in order to free up space for the new soybean crop. Therefore, the demand for trucks will be much greater in early 2013 when a record soybean crop starts to be harvested at the same time that corn is being shipped out.
To complicate the problem even more are new regulations that took effect in July that place limits on the number of hours a truck driver may work in Brazil. These new restrictions have discouraged independent truckers from taking on long hauls such as from Mato Grosso to the ports in southern Brazil."
Still uncertainty in what is really out there and available and can it be in time.