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12-15-2011 06:42 AM - edited 12-15-2011 01:58 PM
At the close:
March corn futures settled 1 3/4 cents lower at $5.79. The Jan. soybean contract finished 11 3/4 cents higher at $11.11 3/4. The March wheat futures ended 1 1/2 cents lower at $5.79 1/4. The January soymeal futures contract settled $0.70 per short ton higher at $283.90. The January soyoil futures ended $0.58 higher at $48.98.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.58 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 61 points.
At mid-session, March corn futures are trading 1 3/4 cents higher at $5.82 1/2. The Jan. soybean contract is trading 9 cents higher at $11.09. The March wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $5.81. The January soymeal futures contract is trading $0.80 per short ton higher at $283.00. The January soyoil futures are trading $0.30 higher at $48.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.60 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 74 points.
One analyst says, "Outside markets didn’t recover today as much as expected, after yesterday's huge collapse.
This leaves grains to find support off talk of dry conditions in South America. Argentina's grain bureau said today they have been overly dry for the last month and there's no rain in site, lending to talk of lower production on early planted corn and beans."
China was active on today's weekly export sales report, in buying corn for the second consecutive week and beans as well. This could be their fearing of a continuation of the drought and traders see them potentially overbooking U.S. crops as an import hedge."
Note: At this time last year, March corn traded at $5.84, Jan soybeans at $12.96, and March wheat at $7.64. So, corn is about where it was a year ago, with soybeans and wheat nearly $2.00 higher.
Grain prices turn mixed, as corn drops and soybeans and wheat remain higher.
At the open:
At the open, the March corn futures opened 1 3/4 cents higher at $5.82 1/2. The Jan. soybean contract opened 9 1/4 cents higher at $11.09 1/4. The March wheat futures opened 2 1/2 cents higher at $5.83 1/4. The January soymeal futures contract opened $0.90 per short ton higher at $283.10. The January soyoil futures opened $0.29 higher at $48.69.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.01 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 33 points.
USDA announces neutral-to-bearish Weekly Export Sales Report.
USDA released Weekly Export Sales Thursday. For corn exports, USDA estimates sales at 505,900 metric tons, barely ahead of the trade's estimate of 500,000 metric tons (mt). Soybean exports were estimated at 468,600 mt, below the trade's estimate of 500,000 mt. USDA recorded wheat exports at 318,400 mt, below the trade's estimate of 350,000 mt. Soymeal exports were recorded at 107,300 mt, with the trade estimates at 100,000 mt.
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 7-9 cents higher, and wheat 6-8 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading stronger.
Crude Oil=$0.59 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher, after three days of losses. The market awaits U.S. economic data.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks trade lower, Europe higher.
More in a minute,
12-15-2011 07:49 AM
There may be a warning sign for the grain markets in today's Fed Ex company earnings report. The company "beat" the street's expectations. However, if you dig deeper into the company's reports you'll notice it's business is slowing in Asia. Others have talked about China's economy slowing and headed for a "soft-landing".
What do you think? Does it feel like China's demand is waning? Certainly, today's export sales came up short of expectations. And, last I checked, the U.S. soybean export pace was 400 million bushels off USDA's projected sales for the marketing year.
12-15-2011 09:11 AM
12-15-2011 11:42 AM
It's a bit hard to say exactly what conclusion you are encouraging from from the entirely speculative connections you are making. It seems you are trying still to use the faulty reasoning that economic growth = present and future grain commodity demand.
It's largely a false premise to start with. At the extremes of economic conditions there may be some correlation but this is not the case, and won't be.