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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,099
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk December 18

[ Edited ]

All New:  Trying to decide on a new pickup, tractor or a set of tires for the farm? Agriculture.com introduces this new Buyer's Guide.

 

 

Heck, I could have used something like this, last spring, when I was trying to buy a push mower. Thanks to some of you, I had a built-in buyer's guide. This new feature is really neat. You can really drill down and get specific with what you are looking for. I recommend taking a look at it. Have fun with it! What do you think?

 

Mike

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At the close:

The March futures corn contract settled 4 cents lower at $7.20. The Jan. soybean futures contract ended 30 cents lower at $14.66. March wheat futures finished 3 cents higher at $8.11 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract ended $0.62 lower at $49.17 The Jan. soymeal futures contract ended $10.50 per short ton lower at $444.90.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.72 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 104 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading 2 cents lower at $7.21. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 16 cents lower at $14.79. March wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $8.11per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.41 lower at $49.38 The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $6.50 per short ton lower at $448.90.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.81 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 82 points higher.

 

Alan Brugler, President of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says today's price action is mostly about money moving around before year end.
"Some positioning ahead of the asset allocation moves by the big index funds in January, such as buying KC wheat and soybean meal while selling soybeans, bean oil and Chicago wheat," Brugler says.
What about a Santa Claus rally for the grain markets? Is it real?
"The 30-year trend has a 'Santa Claus rally' in March corn, but the three correlated years, with price action most tightly correlated to this year, drop lower to to the holiday and then rally at year end," he says.

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading 6 cents lower at $7.17. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 23 cents lower at $14.72. March wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $8.02 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.44 lower at $49.35 The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $8.50 per short ton lower at $446.90.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.19 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:10am:

 

Uh Oh!!!!! USDA announces Tuesday that China has canceled 300,000 mt worth of U.S. soybean purchases for 2012-13.

--USDA also says an 'unknown' buyer has canceled 120,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13.

--USDA announces Tuesday that an 'unknown' has bought 110,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13.

--Japan seeks 121,026 mt of milling wheat Tuesday.

 

Are you dizzy yet?  Wow!  This can't be good for today's bean market?

 

Mike

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At 8am:

I'm quoting from a note sent out this morning by AgResource to their customers:  "In these holiday thinned
markets, it does not take much selling (or buying) to produce an exacerbated
price move. Such seems to be the case for the CME soybean market overnight."

 

USDA is also expected to show more soybean demand this morning.

 

Mike

-------

At 5:35am:

Early calls:  Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 18-20 cents lower and wheat 3-5 cents lower

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.49per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher as investors keep eyes on the U.S. budget talks.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,890
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk December 18

[ Edited ]

five day forcast.jpg

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 216
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk December 18

LOL  With little fanfare the last trading day of CBOT ended friday.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,099
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 18

[ Edited ]

Here's what one grain analyst told me about this morning's huge cancellation of U.S. soybeans by China. He doesn't sound that surprised.

 

"We usually get Chinese cancelations in early January when the weather there is confirmed half way through their growing season. They see the current pattern of rainfall something that will continue. Therefore, they will buy cheaper later."

 

Are you surprised?

 

Mike

Advisor
Faust100F
Posts: 831
Registered: ‎11-09-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 18

How many times have we seen this movie!  These cancellations are a non event, except for speculators, lets see where this market in late february or march.  They can go to Brazil and see if they can find beans and get them on a boat after their harvest.  Brazil is not a threat to us, we are the only open supermarket for beans until the brazilian harvest, and then they are going to have many problems getting the crop on a boat to China. 

 

My beans are locked  in storage, they were not sold off the combine.  $17 beans were great, but iI have been farming long enough to know that $14 beans are great, $10 beans are great and even $7 beans are great, I might get concerned when that market hits $4.   Remember in 2006 corn was $1.98 and beans were $5.56, so have a good winter, do not let these jokers shake your tree.  Soon (after the first of the year) you will see what happens, when the stocks held by the commercials decline to zero, and they have to start knocking on farmers doors to shake grain loose.    John

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,453
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk December 18

I thought those chinese were smart.  They believe a our weather forcast????  :smileyhappy:

 

 

Hobby I saw that,  almost Goofy with anticipation.

 

 

I think that is our second marketing issue behind SA.  When the weather starts keeping us out of the fields enthusiasm is going to come back all the way around.  Production anticipation.

sw
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,453
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk December 18

I don't like usda's march anouncements, but they are a reflection of the "next year" excitement that we all get.  And the worst last year was the better we want next year to look.  Been living that for a long time our here in the sw.

sw
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,099
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 18

Faust100F,

 

Be sure to keep one eye on Russia. Today, its Minister announced that grain stocks have fallen 30% below last year's level. I've mentioned before that a Ukrainian source tells me that when Russia sells grain from their Intervention pile, that is a signal that they are nearing a grain export ban. Russia has been selling from that Intervention inventory this past month. And now, there is more evidence their drought-stricken harvest is tightening stocks even more. So, if you are keeping score at home. We have the following market factors in-play:

 

--Tight grain stocks throughout Europe

--A record-large planted soybean crop that seems to be growing fine in South America.

--A U.S. drought that isn't being busted, even with some winter precip on the way.

--Asian buyers overlooking U.S. corn for other origins and soybean customers canceling orders while looking for the cheapest price in the world.

--A Mississippi River that is threatening the grain shipping industry.

--Tight U.S. soybean stocks.

--Weak corn and wheat demand.

--End-of-month and end-of-year market shenanigans, window-dressing, etc. upcoming.

--Other

---------------------

Add it up and what do you get?

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,093
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 18

Thin volume but shaky legs on this Soybean market.  Good time to buy and hold on and grab some toilet paper. 

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,890
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk December 18

Remember as a kid playing "musical chairs"?

 

Well this is the grownup version ... just that there are TWO chairs missing.

 

China HAS to get a seat every time the music stops.

 

This buying/cancelling thing needs to stop and stop now.

 

In any other venue when you have a bad actor, they are put on as a cash account. Money on the table with the order...THEN delievery. Just because they are a BTO does not mean they can't be treated as a cash up front only customer.

 

Just my opinion as an uneducated STO from South Podunk Country, Iowa.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."