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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk December 19

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures contract settled 5 1/2 cents higher at $4.30. The March soybean futures contract closed 5 1/2 cents higher at $13.19. March wheat futures finished 2 cents lower at $6.10 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract finished $0.80 per short ton higher at $428.50. The March soyoil futures closed $0.26 higher at $39.64.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $1.11 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 4 points higher.

 

One analyst summarizes this day's market like this: "Wheat is oversold and we should expect some "dead-cat-bounces" along the way. Also wheat basis levels have improved today which could be a sign of new export business to come.  The 8:00 am corn sale announcements were supportive for corn but it also could be capitulation by the funds. They have held record short corn positions and this would be the time of year to see them liquidate for profit taking.  Same with soybeans, managed money may be choosing to just get out of Jan beans rather than roll up to March on profit taking.  The Jan-March bean spread is at the lowest level since August.

 

Yet anotheranalyst sized up the market, today, like this: "It has been really a very slow day with not much to talk about.  Corn up a bit on the solid export sales, but beans down a bit on the less than expected export sales.  It looks like we are starting to lose out demand to South America, which had been expected and now seems to be happening.  Real good conditions right now in just about all of South America, although it will be turning warmer and drier in southern Brazil and Argentina.  For now, this is ok, as they need time to get the last of the crop in, but if the hot and dusty hangs around we could reverse next month.  For now, though, I expect beans to work lower, corn to go nowhere and wheat maybe to turn sideways.  We are in a holiday market, the volume is bad!"

 

Mike

------------

At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 4cents higher at $4.29. The March soybean futures contract is trading 1 1/2 cents lower at $13.12. March wheat futures are 4 1/4 cents higher at $6.17 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract is trading $1.20 per short ton lower at $426.50. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.05 higher at $39.43.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.87 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher.

 

 

Mike

----------

At 10:30am:

 

Corn and wheat are up 4 cents, and soybeans down 4 cents.

 

 

Mike

-------

At 9am:

Do you do business with INTL FCStone? Listen up. John Roach, Roach Ag Futures posted this note to customers in a daily newsletter Thursday:

 

"Yesterday the company (INTL FC Stone) reported they had discovered accounting errors during an audit that may have overstated their prior earnings reports by $6.4 million. Those errors do not involve customer funds according to the assurances we have received and the news release posted on their web-site."

 

Just a heads up here, if you want to go to their website to find out more about the situation.

 

Mike

-----------

At the open:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 2 1/4 cents higher at $4.27. The March soybean futures contract is trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $13.08. March wheat futures are 1 1/2 cents lower at $6.14 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract is trading $2.80 per short ton lower at $424.90. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.01 higher at $39.39.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $1.03 per barre lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 12 points lower.

 

 

Mike

--------------

At 8:15am:

 

--USDA announces Thursday that an 'unknown' bought 127,536 tons of U.S. corn.

--USDA announces Thursday that S. Korea bought 130,000 tons of U.S. corn for 2013-14 delivery.

 

 

Mike

----------

At 7:30am:

 

USDA releases its Weekly Export Sales Report:

 

Corn=  872,300 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 450,000-750,000 metric tons.

 

Soybeans=  495,700 metric tons  vs. the trade's expectations of 700,000-1,000,000 metric tons.

 

Wheat=   659,100 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 300,000-500,000 metric tons.

 

 

Mike

--------------

 

At 7:25am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil=$1.03 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen flat, ahead of jobless numbers.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher, Europe stocks higher.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,775
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk December 19

mike and Giolucas,

 

Is it obvious that the export sales figures went out to some yesterday morning??????????

sw
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 19

[ Edited ]

Reporter's Notebook:

I was on assignment yesterday. Great day to be outside. So nice that I wanted to share what I saw and learned. It was a trip from Des Moines, Iowa to the southwestern part of the state. But, I witnessed a guy combining corn. And this was west of Des Moines, along I-80. It was a pretty big field too. I'm sure there's a story behind that late harvest activity. Further along, I see lime being applied to a field north of Emerson. All along the way, I noticed a lot of grain trucks on the road.

I stopped to visit an ethanol plant. I'm told they are taking in about 147 trucks a day. Selling is fairly active. And this is a lot of spot selling at the offer of 5¢ under. The plant itself is taking in all it can to keep running.

When I asked about this huge pile of corn that I noticed outside of a separate grain elevator, on the other side of town, I'm told there is about 2.0 million bushels in that pile. In addition, there is another 2.0 million bushel pile in next town down the road. And, this same company has yet another 2.0 million bushel corn pile in Hopkins, Missouri, about 50 miles away.

The corn, not all of it, is expected to be outside until March. Overall, e-plant production was going at pretty good  clip. And the byproducts coming out the back door are flying off of the "shelves" too.

 

Great day. I love to get out and see what exactly is going on. And here's a sidenote. Despite what you hear from economic experts about the RFS talk not being a big concern. Pssst....(whispering here)....ethanol plants are very concerned.

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
jweiser1925
Posts: 51
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 19

Mike,

 

Read this article by Stu Ellis, about Chinese stealing corn seeds:

 

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=em#trash/1430a845d70c903f

 

Jim W

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 19

sw363535,

 

It's my goal this next year to dig deeper on how export sales are reported. Like you, I believe somebody is getting wind of these sales before they are reported. If you think about it, logically, somebody has to take a phone call to accept the order and then make a phone call to report the sale to the USDA, if the order is big enough. So, after they are done with their phone calls, do they go fishing or hibernate until the Thursday Expor Sales is officially out. I think not. They probably leave work, maybe stop at their local watering hole and tell the guy sitting next to them what kind of a hard day they had taking orders from foreigners buying U.S. corn, or soybeans. Well, if that guy has a brother that works in the grain merchandising or food industry, it's highly possible word could trickle to the right minds. I'm just sayin. But, seriously, it does seem like that rumor starts about Monday or Tuesday, some weeks, and the 'goodie' is taken out by the time the sales are actually reported Thursday. 

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,775
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk December 19

The Dec supply/demand also had an active day ahead of the report as I remember.  

 

This one just seemed a little obvious.

 

With this atourney general office insider trading would be a warning ticket.

 

 

Or we are all just hanging out at the wrong pub.  :smileyhappy:

sw
Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,150
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 19

[ Edited ]

Sw,

 

I didn't receive a memo, I wished I had.  Also, since we did not show that much power trying to take out the 1353 resistance in soybeans it turned into a wave downwards. 

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,775
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk December 19

it is disturbing to see.

 

And the market excuse is that the market reaction on the day of report wasn't as expected because "that was already factored into the market".    

 

Gotta drive short term traders nuts at times.

sw
Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk December 19

this one was pretty good sell for swing trading.