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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk December 20

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March corn futures contract settled 6 cents lower at $6.96. The Jan. soybean futures contract finished 28 cents lower at $14.08. March wheat futures finished 15 cents lower at $7.90 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract closed $0.50 lower at $47.91 The Jan. soymeal futures contract finished $8.80 per short ton lower at $427.70.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.27 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points higher.

 

Mike

----------

At mid-day:

At mid-day, the March futures corn contract is trading 8 cents lower at $6.94. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 27 cents lower at $14.10. March wheat futures are trading 16 cents lower at $7.89 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.46 lower at $47.95 The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $9.20 per short ton lower at $427.30.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points higher.

 

One analyst says, "Fund-selling is occurring in a big way in all markets.  
"Funds are taking their toys out of the sandbox and going home for the holidays.  I can’t think of anything else," he says.  
Today's weekly report shows strong soybean complex sales. But, the China cancellation of U.S. soybean sales is taking that positive away, he says.  
"Corn sales were bad again, and an issue for sure.  Wheat sales were very good.  The lack of progress in Washington, I think, is a factor in the selling today.  I feel like people are getting out before the holidays and will take the holidays off before doing anything which means a couple of slow weeks coming," he says.  I
He adds, "I also think that idea implies that today or tomorrow is the end of this selling pressure and we could be sideways to higher next week."

 

Mike

-----------

At the open:

At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading 10 cents lower at $6.93. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 21 cents lower at $14.15. March wheat futures are trading 10 cents lower at $7.95 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.53 lower at $47.88 The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $7.40 per short ton lower at $429.10.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 4 points higher.

 

Mike

-------------

At 8am:

WOW, WOW, WOW!!!

 

USDA announces Thursday that China has canceled 540,000 mt of U.S. soybeans that were scheduled for delivery in 2012-13. This comes after it canceled 300,000 mt earlier this week. And all of this is on top of U.S. corn being beaten out of the world market by Europe and South America. What do you think? Things are getting mighty interesting, in regards to the demand picture.

 

Trade Reaction to China Cancels:

 

"Basis broke for early shipments in SA the middle of last week and I believe allowed the Chinese to move destination on some of this business. Margins there have been recovering but from negative numbers. So, it makes sense you would see some give back. This is conjecture on my part.
 
Regarding corn, $6.80 corn should get us competitive with SA origin. And, should also put the ethanol crush margin back into positive territory for the first time this year. So, I bought corn on the break today, selling 680 puts for 24 cents. I think you have to ask yourself where do you want to be on Jan 11, if the old crop harvest loses another 1 million acres and we see better export business. Ifyou don’t see a write down in old crop on Jan 11 and Informa is right at 99 million acres, it’s a long slide down for new crop corn. But,I covered shorts there for the time being," the floor trader says.

 

 

Anyway, I hope this helps,

 

Mike

-----------

At 7:50am:

USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report is horribly bearish for the corn market:

 

Corn=120,200 mt vs the trade's expectations of between 375,000-550,000 metric tons (mt)
Soybeans=629,900 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 650,000-850,000 mt
Wheat=671,100 mt vs. the trade's expectations of  400,000-600,000 mt.

 

Mike

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At 5:35am:

--China soybeans closed lower overnight, on the Dalian Exchange due to weakness in the U.S. market.

--A South Korea buyer picked up 55,000 tons of food corn Thursday. The seller has the option to originate it from the U.S. or South America.

--Also, a South Korea feed mill is seeking 210,000 tons of feed corn. The seller is asked to originate the May-June delivery from either Europe or South America, because U.S. corn is too high comparatively, the Dow Jones Newswire states.

 

Mike

----------

At 5:25am:

Early calls:  Corn 5-7 cents lower, soybeans 10-11 cents lower and wheat 10-11 cents lower

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.21 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat-to-lower.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 20

Here are snowfall totals in Iowa, as of 6am Thursday:

 

lsr_snowfall.png

Senior Contributor
bkadds
Posts: 301
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Floor Talk December 20

Someone should tell South Korea the cost to help them is to high the next time Kim Jung Un is saber rattling.
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 20

bkadds,

 

Yeah, isn't that the case. Especially with Iraq. They announce big grain purchases, sometimes. And the U.S. is nowhere to be found. It is interesting to see the U.S. being put on the back shelf, when it comes to the world corn market. It's happening more and more each year.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
bkadds
Posts: 301
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk December 20

Possibly we fill gap at $6.80 and hold or go up, but a lot of talk how good things are down south. Seems like more countries say one thing and do another to make the market move--must have had a great teacher--China.
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 20

bkadds,

 

You would think this sell-off, this week, would bring in demand? Let's see what this morning's export sales numbers look like. Here is what the trade expects:

 

Corn=375,000-550,000 metric tons (mt)

Soybeans=650,000-850,000 mt

Wheat= 400,000-600,000 mt.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
bkadds
Posts: 301
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk December 20

Let's hope! I know we are in a global market, but that does not help the dryness we have been experiencing for years here. Looks like basis will go up again here to get some grain shook loose. Also, wonder how much money is going into stock market instead.
Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,011
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk December 20

[ Edited ]

The agency bought the Brazilian corn from Louis Dreyfus Corp at $339.95 per tonne on a cost and freight (CFR) basis, IF i did this right then that would figure out to 9.51 a bu.

 

I think the ship has sunk on exports going up , and beans too , the (Chinese) will be heading to S.A. VERY soon for beans , not here , and don't forget South Africa they have corn too !

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 20

For those wondering what Iowa must look like this morning, here is a snapshot of a residential area:

First Iowa Snowstorm.jpg

 

State officials were pulling people out of vehicles on I-80/I-35 this morning, due to a semi tractor trailer blocking traffic. Electricity has been lost to thousands of residents in the Des Moines area. Lots of digging out today. If this storm hits Chicago, maybe the markets will think the drought has been busted. But, even with this 12-inch snowstorm, the Midwest subsoil moisture remains very short.

 

Mike

Advisor
Faust100F
Posts: 831
Registered: ‎11-09-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 20

the 12 inches in DSM was isolated, the Southern SE half of Iowa received 1-3 inches (so no real moisture there),   Looks like the area that needed it Most North of I-80 only had a few places with more than 3 inches of snow.  Sooooo . . . what is that about 1/4 inch of rain.  No doubt about it, markets will crash today, because of the overall 3 inch snow fall in Iowa.  Here in Grand Island it is a beautiful clear sunny day, gonna be 4 degrees above zero tomorrow.  Still holed up in the hotel, probably stay one more nite.   Adios amigos. John