12-26-2012 07:29 AM - edited 12-26-2012 02:26 PM
At the close:
The March futures corn contract closed 11 cents lowerat $6.93. The Jan. soybean futures contract finished 15 cents lower at $14.24. March wheat futures finished 19 cents lower at $7.74 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract ended $0.65 lower at $48.29. The Jan. soymeal futures contract settled $3.50 per short ton lower at $431.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.38 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points lower.
The markets are down double-digits. One floor trader says, "Good rains in HRW areas got wheat off to a lower start. Corn and soybeans are a surprise. Very light trade. The PNW strike certainly is not a bullish input.
USDA revises corn exports down and soybean sales up, in its Weekly Export Inspection Report Wednesday.
At the open,
At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading 1 cent higher at $7.05. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $14.42. March wheat futures are trading 3/4 of cent lower at $7.97 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.04 lower at $48.86. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.80 per short ton higher at $435.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 12 points higher.
--USDA announces Wednesday that China bought 223,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.
It's being noted in some of today's analysts wires to customers that March corn and soybeans have rallied, in recent years, between now and New Year's Eve. Will this year be any different, in your opinion?
A rally based on these items:
--Demand is weak
--South America's weather seems to be favorable for the crop development
--The U.S. races towards a fiscal cliff
--Ethanol plants are losing money, as ethanol stocks pile up
--The hangover from China's soybean cancellations continue
Help me here. Where does a rally come from?
Early calls: No overnight trading Sunday. The markets re-open at 9:30am. The outside markets are favorable for the grains to go higher. However, China's soybean futures traded flat, overnight, on the Dalian Exchange. Is that what the CME Group traders will use to start today's trading?
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading ceased.
Crude Oil=$0.57 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher with some optimism of improved talks on the U.S. 'fiscal cliff' issue.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are mixed.
More in a minute,
12-26-2012 08:50 AM
Do you speak of today's soybean sales? Or, just that demand can show up at any moment?
Today's purchase of U.S. soybeans by China may help the market's pyche. But, the traders still have a knot in their guts over last week's cancellations millons of bushels of soybeans.
12-26-2012 09:55 AM
I like to watch the open interest in trading. It is quite low in Corn right now. When the indicator changes, I believe demand will have started. I don't follow soybeans very close. All indicators appear the market is waiting for something to rebound. What the traders are waiting for is unknown to me.
12-26-2012 10:08 AM
Im not surprised crops are in the doldrums, we had an early harvest, good harvest prices, the buyers were offering free DP until March 1st, or you could sell off the field, and defer any amount of your payment you wanted, until after January 1st. There were a lot of people, at least around here, that took advantage of it. Heck, for those who knew they had plenty of un-contracted corn to sell, the local elevators were writing contracts left and right, for Sep/Oct, as well as Oct/Nov delivery, for $8+ corn, with the option to defer the check into January. Heck, if I was sure I had enough extra bushels above my contracts, I would have done the same thing. Regardless, there still are piles on the ground at the local Cargill, but there isn't hardly any activity, as far as people hauling grain in, and the piles are shrinking. We normally get a little flurry of activity in January, but I'd say by the coffee shop talk, maybe half the grain they normally see come in during Jan, is already there.
With piles on the ground, and more contracts to fill come Jan 1, there is no immediate need to be buying any corn. However, if they are going to get 99 million acres planted to corn, they may have to raise the new crop price, above $6.06 (current local new crop bid). Soybeans at $13.06, with their lower water use, are looking very tempting to a lot of local farmers, many of whom were under water rationing this summer, and wound up with 50 BU beans, and only 100 BU corn, under the same pivot. How many of these swing acres exist, will have a lot to do with our water situation, both the water in the soil, and the water in the reservoirs.
12-26-2012 10:22 AM - edited 12-26-2012 10:24 AM
I think you may have hit the nail on the head in regards to recent prices. I guess what is happening in Japan right now could be a game changer. New government with a different way to start their economy. One of our biggest trading partners will affect the grain markets. It may be 3 or 4 months down the line. The value of the Yen maybe a indicator.