Marketing

[marketeye]

We just posted two stories that favor wheat prices in 2013.

Wheat can be a 2013 market leader.

More U.S. wheat to Brazil?

What do you think?

Mike

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At the close:

The March futures corn contract settled 1 cent lower at $6.91. The Jan. soybean futures contract finished 5 cents lower at $14.18. March wheat futures finished 2 cents lower at $7.72 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract settled unchanged at $48.29.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract finished $1.50 per short ton lower at $429.80.




One analyst explains why, in his own words:  "After a short-covering rally last week, we're seeing sellers again on three fronts that are preventing people from building new long positions into their book. It's month-end, year-end and fiscal cliff fear that have traders balancing their books and reducing long exposure.  Traders also expect a bearish weekly export sales report Friday for corn and wheat, while beans should be friendly at best but not bullish. Lower trade, off the report, Friday should put a low in for December, leaving Monday as an up day and a last chance for this week's new shorts to take their profits."

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March futures corn contract is trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $6.92. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $14.17. March wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $7.68 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.04 lower at $48.25.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.70 per short ton lower at $429.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.29 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 130 points lower.

Mike

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At 7:20am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading is mixed.
Crude Oil=$0.07 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher with lawmakers returning to Washington to debate budget.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[roarintiger1]

Mike,  Honestly, with the exception of currently lower export numbers on wheat, I don't quite understand why the wheat market has not taken off to the higher side.  It seems that no one is too worried about a possible lower supply of wheat.   Of course, the same could be said for the corn and soybean markets as well.

[Kstater85]

It might be because we can not sell what wheat we have.   We need to start selling wheat immediately to have a chance to get to USDA's export number. 

Doesn't matter if you don't grow 200M bushels if you don't sell 300M!

[gregs3821958]

 We missed rain from the last two weather fronts that moved across the region. This lack of awareness (or should I say paper market action) often happens...remember the freeze  and last drought? The drought is getting worse here in Kansas. 

[Palouser]

No doubt we will be selling more to Brazil as Argentine wheat is tapped out for sales and the quality generally poor in big areas. Brazil could wind up being the biggest global importer.

[ECIN]

KStater hit the nail on the head !!!!

Read alittle bit ago that Taiwan had cancelled they Feb-March corn and beans -- they were 23K tons and 12 K tons that was bought in Oct --- The lowest bid they got for corn was 353 a ton = if I did this right 9.88 a bu. and beans at 617 a ton = 18.52 .

Those prices were down 21 and 35 a ton from Oct. BUT  still well above S.A. offers for early 13 .

Then lets talk wheat , how many times has the Ukraine said they were done exporting wheat ? a couple of dozen times anyway , I don't care who it is , who whats to sit on tanks full of high priced grain ? It's time to cash in .

We are priced out of the market -- for now - plain and simple . Until we , or the market get's to a point that we under cut S.A. .

One other thing on beans , even with what we have exported this year , and are very tight beans , What IF S.A. Does come threw with a big azz crop ? What will beans be ? End users will just import them and not even buy our stuff .

As my Good friends Credence ClearWater Revival sang - I see a Bad Moon Rise 'N'

Oh dang , I forgot the question , will wheat be a leader ? My guess is 50 / 50 , it depends on how much snow or rain parts of wheat country gets .

The big thing that will be over looked by the market is - they will see snow or rain , and we are saved , but us farmers know that if it's not there to start with , then it won't be there in the end , that will be what the market misses -- till harvest .  

[Hobbyfarmer]

choice A) this is the lull before the storm.... Prices will rebound shortly....

choice B) The train left the station some time ago and we missed it.

Btw: here is a link to snow depth in the US. Not much out west and SW yet to be breaking any drought.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/Snow-Depth-US.htm

[marketeye]

roarintiger1,

It really feels like wheat has the chance to make a run, at some point in the first few months of the year. We'll see.

Mike

[sw363535]

Thanks for the snow charts.  That is really disappointing to the northeast.  I was hoping you guys were getting a good snow and just trying to keep it quiet.