12-27-2012 07:20 AM - edited 12-27-2012 02:25 PM
We just posted two stories that favor wheat prices in 2013.
What do you think?
At the close:
The March futures corn contract settled 1 cent lower at $6.91. The Jan. soybean futures contract finished 5 cents lower at $14.18. March wheat futures finished 2 cents lower at $7.72 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract settled unchanged at $48.29. The Jan. soymeal futures contract finished $1.50 per short ton lower at $429.80.
One analyst explains why, in his own words: "After a short-covering rally last week, we're seeing sellers again on three fronts that are preventing people from building new long positions into their book. It's month-end, year-end and fiscal cliff fear that have traders balancing their books and reducing long exposure. Traders also expect a bearish weekly export sales report Friday for corn and wheat, while beans should be friendly at best but not bullish. Lower trade, off the report, Friday should put a low in for December, leaving Monday as an up day and a last chance for this week's new shorts to take their profits."
At mid-session, the March futures corn contract is trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $6.92. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $14.17. March wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $7.68 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.04 lower at $48.25. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.70 per short ton lower at $429.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.29 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 130 points lower.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading is mixed.
Crude Oil=$0.07 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher with lawmakers returning to Washington to debate budget.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
12-27-2012 10:11 AM
Mike, Honestly, with the exception of currently lower export numbers on wheat, I don't quite understand why the wheat market has not taken off to the higher side. It seems that no one is too worried about a possible lower supply of wheat. Of course, the same could be said for the corn and soybean markets as well.
12-27-2012 10:15 AM
It might be because we can not sell what wheat we have. We need to start selling wheat immediately to have a chance to get to USDA's export number.
Doesn't matter if you don't grow 200M bushels if you don't sell 300M!
12-27-2012 10:25 AM
We missed rain from the last two weather fronts that moved across the region. This lack of awareness (or should I say paper market action) often happens...remember the freeze and last drought? The drought is getting worse here in Kansas.
12-27-2012 11:14 AM
12-27-2012 11:26 AM - edited 12-27-2012 11:33 AM
KStater hit the nail on the head !!!!
Read alittle bit ago that Taiwan had cancelled they Feb-March corn and beans -- they were 23K tons and 12 K tons that was bought in Oct --- The lowest bid they got for corn was 353 a ton = if I did this right 9.88 a bu. and beans at 617 a ton = 18.52 .
Those prices were down 21 and 35 a ton from Oct. BUT still well above S.A. offers for early 13 .
Then lets talk wheat , how many times has the Ukraine said they were done exporting wheat ? a couple of dozen times anyway , I don't care who it is , who whats to sit on tanks full of high priced grain ? It's time to cash in .
We are priced out of the market -- for now - plain and simple . Until we , or the market get's to a point that we under cut S.A. .
One other thing on beans , even with what we have exported this year , and are very tight beans , What IF S.A. Does come threw with a big azz crop ? What will beans be ? End users will just import them and not even buy our stuff .
As my Good friends Credence ClearWater Revival sang - I see a Bad Moon Rise 'N'
Oh dang , I forgot the question , will wheat be a leader ? My guess is 50 / 50 , it depends on how much snow or rain parts of wheat country gets .
The big thing that will be over looked by the market is - they will see snow or rain , and we are saved , but us farmers know that if it's not there to start with , then it won't be there in the end , that will be what the market misses -- till harvest .
12-27-2012 12:19 PM - edited 12-27-2012 12:20 PM
choice A) this is the lull before the storm.... Prices will rebound shortly....
choice B) The train left the station some time ago and we missed it.
Btw: here is a link to snow depth in the US. Not much out west and SW yet to be breaking any drought.