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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,186
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk December 28

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March futures corn contract closed 2 cents higher at $6.94. The Jan. soybean futures contract finished 5 cents higher at $14.24. March wheat futures finished 6 cents higher at $7.78 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract finished $0.65 at $48.94.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract closed $2.10 per short ton lower at $427.70.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.01 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 88 points lower.

 

Mike

---------

At 1:35pm:

Farm markets are trading a few ticks higher. One analyst says, "Great week of export sales is supporting Wheat and the sales announced today are supporting soybeans.  But it is dead quiet here, no one doing much either way."

 

Mike

-----

At the open:

At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading 1 cent lower at $6.90. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $14.21. March wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $7.73 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.46 at $48.75.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.40 per short ton lower at $428.40.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.31 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 85 points lower.

 

Mike

------------

At 8am:

--USDA announced Friday that China bought 165,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.

--USDA announed Friday that an 'unknown' bought 30,000 tons of U.S. soybean oil for 2012-13.

--China's Dec. soybean imports have been estimated at a monthly record of 6.3 mmt. And, it's Jan. soybean imports have been estimated at a low 2.5 mmt.

 

Mike

---------

At 7:30am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report is very bearish for the corn, soybean markets. Whoa! Look at those unbeliveably low numbers!!

 

Corn= 104,300 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 110-300,000 metric tons (mt).
Soybeans= 87,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 400-600,000 mt.
Wheat=  1.01 million mt vs. the trade's expectations of 500-700,000 mt.
Soymeal= 124,800 mt vs. the trade's thoughts of 200-300,000 mt.

 

Mike

---------

At 7:20am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 7-9 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading is mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.25 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, as the lack of progress by lawmakers and the White House, regarding solving the U.S. "Fiscal Cliff" issue, is causing a lack of confidence by consumers and investors. Does anybody want to lead? Anybody? Buelller?

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 28

Mike...... Why would importers buy now when everybody knows that we will have lower prices later...... (Tongue in cheek)..... Bean were expected as the Chinese cancellations were announced last week.......p-oed 

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,186
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 28

p-oed Farmer,

 

 

I see what you are saying. Notice, the corn and bean markets have already reacted negatively to this morning's export data. Wheat has jumped, as a result of the export data.

 

Even though the trade had these lower corn and bean exports in mind, once the government puts stuff in print, the market goes through a realization period. And today, you could see the market begin to realize the current weak corn export performance.

 

Also, did you notice the tidbit, yesterday, that I mentioned about wheat being a 2013 market leader? BOOM! Look at those wheat export numbers. Is this the start of wheat's rise to the top?

 

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 4,224
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 28

Hey Mike, this is not totally market related but just thought I would put it out there.

When i read reports listing mt or MT I always want to read it as Million tonnes, I have to back up and re-read to get my mind around the redundant phrase of 'metric ton(ne)'

Just seems one word would do instead of 2 and would remove the confusion in my mind.

 

Now I know many in your country want to use the phrase 'metric ton(ne)' but I always thought it was developed that way to make the metric system seem harder than it really is.

 

Just did some checking and according to this site the abbreviation for 1000 kgs even when you say 'metric ton(ne)' is t     just one little lower case t

http://www.merriam-webster.com/mw/table/metricsy.htm

 

Just saying it would be easier for me to read and simpler way to write it.

 

BTW I was always taught that the abbreviation for the old 2000 lb unit was T   a capitalized T

Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,186
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk December 28

Canuck_2,

 

 

First, let me ask. Is there a Canuck_1? Just curious. Yes, I know there seems to be some confusion with metric tons, tonnes, tons, and short ton. The short answer is what you talk about on pounds. Here in the U.S., we use metric tons. But, the world exports are measured mostly in tons. For instance, China buys XXXX tons from the U.S. Because they were the buyer, the sale is reported in their tonnage measurement. But, when I write the U.S. export sales it is measured in metric tons. 

 

According to the site differencebetween.com, "A metric ton is a unit based upon SI system and is equal to 1000 kilos. Thus it is a megagram as it contains 1 million grams. Why the words ton and metric ton are being used is interesting to note. The word ton is derived from Latin tunna which means a cask. As in earlier times a cask full of an item normally weighed nearly a metric ton, the word ton stuck.
A metric ton is not the same as short ton which is what is used in the US. The ton that is used in the US translates into 2000 pounds, or roughly 907 kg. The long ton (tonne) is equivalent to 2240 pounds but it is not used commonly in the US."

Advisor
Faust100F
Posts: 831
Registered: ‎11-09-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 28

If the Chinese did not write the check and paid for these beans, there has been NO SALE, these kinds of reports should be banned, since the announcements only "churn" the markets.  There is no sense getting excited, because, in dealing with China the dumb ass USDA allows "cancelable contracts".  This alleged "purchase" in nothing more than an "option to purchase" when viewed by the Chinese.  I think we should start denying them access to our ports and let their goods sit off shore and even let them find another market for their junk.

 

This is what I always whine about, we have Larry, Moe, and Curley at USDA and they publish the best comic book in America.  They are not a reliable source for information.  But in this "no rule of law" world, I guess I need to lower my expectations.   Adios Amigo. John

Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 144
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk December 28

Faust--Pay little attention to SALES.  Watch the export inspection numbers.  They are real.   They come out on Mondays.

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,676
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk December 28

We may need those cancelable contracts next spring when we can't fill them.

sw
Veteran Contributor
Mike central IA
Posts: 120
Registered: ‎07-05-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk December 28

Everyone keeps pointing to the lower corn export numbers and pitching a fit. Keep in mind, that we HAD to have lower exports in order to meet the needs of our domestic market. I don't think it tells us that we are going to have a surplus, it only tells us that the market is doing it's job (I hate when other people use that phrase!) We don't have the extra bushels just lying around that are the difference between last years exports and this years exports. The reduced exports, in my opinion, have in no way-shape-or form created a glut of grain. I hope the traders pull their heads out of the sand soon and realize this.

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 419
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk December 28

The lower it stays now the higher it will have to go up later. I think the January report will be a big game changer in these markets.