Agriculture News, Markets, Weather, Ag Talk, Farm Machinery | Agriculture.com
Reply
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,129
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk December 3

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures contract settled 5 1/2 cents higher at $4.22. The Jan. soybean futures contract settled 1 1/2 cents lower at $13.19. Dec. wheat futures ended 4 cents higher at $6.53 per bushel. The Jan. soymeal futures contract closed unchanged at $428.80. The Dec. soyoil futures settled $0.49 lower at $40.11.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.25 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 135 points lower.

 

 

Mike

-----------

At 12:30pm:

Informa has released its pre-USDA Report estimates..

"Informa world numbers are out…they have corn production down 19 million tons for 2014… so starting to move in right direction…need to be down 50 to justify $5.00 corn," one floor trader says.

 

Mike

-------------

 

At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 2 3/4 cents higher at $4.19. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 3/4 of a cents lower at $13.20. Dec. wheat futures are 4 cents higher at $6.53 per bushel. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.40 per short ton lower at $446.60. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.21 lower at $40.13.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $2.00 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 125points lower.

 

Mike

--------

At the open:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $4.17. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 5 cents lower at $13.16. Dec. wheat futures are 3/4 of a cent lower at $6.49 per bushel. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.10 per short ton lower at $444.90. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.17 lower at $40.17.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.27 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30 points lower.

 

 

Mike

------

At 8am:

The CME Group announced Tuesday its November agricultural commodities volume averaged 1.2 million contracts per day, up 12 percent compared with the prior-year period.

 

 

Mike

---------

At 7:40am:

CFTC Report released on a delay basis, due to the holiday.

 

Corn= Managed money traders dropped 70,658 corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (11/26), opposite of daily trade estimates that showed a 4,000 net gain over that timeframe. Plus, producers and merchants added a total of 36,600 contracts for net gains.

 

Soybeans=3,700 contracts added to total 12,900 net gain.

 

Wheat= Overall positions for Chicago and Kansas City wheat saw 7,800 and 5,500 net losses on the week, below what was expected.

 

Do you folks follow this CFTC data? I'm curious how many do.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

---------

At 5:25am:

--Russia grain harvest has reached over 95.0 million tons, higher than a year ago.

--Black Sea wheat is priced at a significant discount to other origins, the IGC reports.  But, increased demand is limited since it has to focus on executing current sales.

--For Nov, precipitation across Brazil's major soybean growing areas is described as above-average. The only area with insufficient rains is the southern parts of Mato Grosso.

 

Mike

-----------------

At 5:00am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.27 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen lower, as investors watch the Fed.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed to mostly higher, Europe stocks lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,129
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 3

Good morning cowboys and cowgirls! Hey, I don't often do this. But, I'm reposting some comments from a floor trader that I gathered up yesterday. Yes, I think they are that good to pull forward. So, in case you missed them yesterday.

 

Can the world lose 12.0 million acres of corn?

 

A reliable source from the floor of the CBOT, requesting anonymity, says the corn market will struggle to get back to $5, unless the world can lose 12.0 million acres of corn production. Below, is his perspective on today's market and the longerterm outlook. What say you?

 

The floor source says:

"I think both exports and ethanol grind can go higher over the next 2 to 3 USDA reports… but it’s a result of lower prices..and the need to find demand/clear stocks etc…the market is priced low enough to shut down sugar ethanol imports so the ethanol grind may rise by as much as 200 million bushels by the end of the year.
 
The bearish news is the now 4 cargoes rejected by China due to un approved Syngenta GMO traits…
 
The other bearish news is chatter that the Chinese may abandoned their system of grain reserve in favor of more direct subsidy similar to the US…
And also a story that they are banning imported grain, corn and bean allowable to entry into grain reserve…
 
The Chinese bid for US soybean should reach a seasonal top this week… and a large too arrive cargoes should be at peak capacity by Dec 15 forward… so market feels a little over bought for the moment with the country reporting good farm movement on the last 60 cent surge in bean prices..
 
Weather looks good in SA as well.. with Brazil finishing planting this week in beans and Argentina half done in corn and beans… and could actually use drier weather..
 
The wheat market is competitive for export out of US but only after other destinations have done most of this falls business… now India interested in de stocking some of their large wheat reserves… so little news here to inspire the speculative bull…beyond the well documented story of bean exports to China…
 
Hard to say whats on the mind of the farmer who is holding onto corn…they missed their opportunity to sell earlier this fall and now insurance strikes are expired…I can understand of wanting to hold for higher prices and next summers volatility that has been the lesson of the last couple of years… but the world responded to high grain prices with larger and larger acreage devoted to feed grains and this is the first year we saw back to back crops in North and southern hemisphere that had near normal yields… if we follow with another season of above normal yields in South America then there will a larger break coming ….Wheat and beans look too high relative to corn…and have the potential for another 10-15% price break by next June…if SA performs with good crops and better performance in lifting grain…
 
You sort of need to lose 12 million acres of corn production over the next year to right the ship and give the farmer a shot at $5.00 next year… or a 50 mmt decline..World corn stocks… that would require.. Brazil to step back from 2nd crop corn production/planting starts in Feb Mrch… and US to lose 7-8 million acres… then we right the ship next year… with gasoline consumption back in growth mode..at least some of the recent numbers suggested that… and ethanol finding some export business and while stays low enough to discourage sugar ethanol impors…some where south of $2.60 a gallon," he says.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,402
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 3

Hate to say it but, the bears would`ve been right sooner had we not had some well timed droughts the last 3, 4 years.   For me, in this area (NCIA) 2012 was hands down the best year I have ever had, I would take 40 more 2012`s and be happy as a Lark, but we around here like it on the dry side, if you don`t have 4 miles of tile in a 80, you have wetlands.  That obviously isn`t the case with alot of the corn growing areas these days, there are pockets that had record yields this year, which has taken the sting out of these lower prices. 

 

Michael Boehlje talks of "147 million more acres worldwide" came into production due to high prices, so contrary to common belief "they actually are making more land"  :smileyhappy:   Around here corn will be raised in `14 no one will switch to "Belgium Endives", the way tilliage and fertilizer went on you couldn`t tell that corn was much closer to $4 than $8.  Fringe areas are a wildcard but alot of them got 150/bu acre this year, where as in 2012 they got 30/bu, so it probably hasn`t "sunk in" yet with these lower prices.

 

If there is a worldwide loss of 12 million corn acres, it probably won`t come from this country  :smileyhappy:

We shouldn`t have to light a candle to see the Sun.
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,129
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 3

BA Deere,

 

Some good thoughts, this morning. The scenario that I hear that could get us close to losing that 12.0 million involves Brazil. If those farmers cut their corn production, for that safrihna (2nd crop), (and we're told some guys are going to) and $4 corn scares some fringe acres back to regular regional crops, that would lose about 7-8 million acres. But, it does seem like losing 12.0 million is a tall ask.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,571
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk December 3

[ Edited ]

A lot of the fringe acres got 150? Not sure on that statement.   I don't think that the US will plant 12 million less corn acres in 2014.  But I also don't think that the overall demand prediction is high enough either...

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,402
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 3

Yes, Roarin` it depends on where you draw the lines of the "fringe" I say 100 mileseither direction of Vinje  :smileyhappy:     But seriously South Dakota was beautiful this year, Mitchell area 30 in 2012 and 150 this year.  Kentucky guys were bragging up a storm, "Noth Kentucky" braggin` up a storm :smileyhappy:

 

Around here raisiny 200 bushel corn is like falling off a log, but this year you hear alot of "130`s". 

We shouldn`t have to light a candle to see the Sun.
Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 679
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk December 3

now you are making me hungry for a mushroom swiss burger!!

 

last 2-3% of harvest still in progress in far south Iowa.....

 

dumped 945,000 corn on wed/fri/sat last week, and there were 240,000 spots in those deliveries

 

Yesterday was busy, too.....everyone with a Dec 1 contract wants to haul while weather is good, and when there is still harvest corn trying to get in the door, that creates some congestion......400+ trucks on Monday

 

Ray J

Frequent Contributor
NW IA
Posts: 25
Registered: ‎05-15-2010

Re: Floor Talk December 3

What is the unapproved GMO Trait from Syngenta?  Why does this company continue to do this?

Advisor
WCMO
Posts: 480
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
0

Link to an Article

[ Edited ]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/18/china-corn-gmo-idUSL2N0J31QG20131118

 

Sounds to me like it's just now making news because some "gmo watcher" groups have recently picked up on the story.  Oddball group stories are new, actual news stories are a couple of weeks old.

 

If the Chinese can "cancel" or "refuse" shipments (for whatever reason, or none at all) booked earlier for over $7, pay a relatively small cancellation fee, then rebook for under $5, kind of makes sense financially for them, yet appears to be questionable ethics to me.  It's the hype and potentially falsified dangers drummed up in the oddball publications that could hurt exports.  Did we learn anything from Starlink?

____________________________________

"My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government." - Thomas Jefferson

"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." - Abraham Lincoln
Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,042
Registered: ‎10-17-2012

Re: Link to an Article

Heres the kicker guys - and I quote : which has been pending approval for about 18 months - fellows thats china's trump card for buying corn off of us - They approve it then how will they makes us dance to there song --

 

Domestic high prices -- rebuilding stocks AND anybody remeber that little deal about the fly zone ??? Funny how this is all working out about that huh ??

 

Anyway - 60 more cargo's headed that way ( to China ) what 2 bucks in shipping plus reselling at a lower price -possible ???  I would bet there alot of people not sleeping well here .

 

To bad we just can't tell them little ---- s to kiss off and there junk azz cloths too !