11-06-2012 06:31 AM - edited 11-06-2012 02:41 PM
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract closed 5 cents higher at $7.41. Jan. soybean futures contract finished 12 cents higher at $15.15. Dec. wheat futures settled 11 cents higher at $8.77 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract settled $0.36 higher at $48.68. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $3.70 per short ton higher at $472.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 141 points higher.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $7.38. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 18 cents higher at $15.21. Dec. wheat futures are trading 9 cents higher at $8.75 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.41 higher at $48.73. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.90 per short ton higher at $472.90.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.85 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 163 points higher.
In the first nine months of this year, China has been the destination for 71% of all Brazilian soybeans. That works out to be 22.0 million tons. In 2011, that same number was 19.5 million tons, according to CONAB data released Tuesday.
Question: With Brazil's soybean 'tank' nearly empty, and crop-weather questions arising with their current planting season, do you see a soybean rally on the horizon? I know we are up today. But, I mean a more significant weather rally in the next month or so?
Separately, it's being estimated that between 13-16 million hectares (32-39 million acres), ***That's a lot*** of Argentina's soybean acres are flooded or are under severe amounts of water, according to Oil World. This would drop that country's output by 30-6 million tons of soybeans.
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 2 cents higher at $7.38. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 11 cents higher at $15.14. Dec. wheat futures are trading 9 cents higher at $8.74 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.43 higher at $48.55. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.30 per short ton higher at $472.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.79 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 68 points higher.
Although they have backed off a bit, the overnight corn, soybean and wheat markets remain in positive territory Monday.
A survey of private analysts firms has the USDA Friday lowering U.S. corn production vs. October's estimate and raising U.S. soybean output.
Corn=10.629 billion bushels is the survey's average vs. USDA's 10.706 bill. bu. last month.
Soybeans=2.891 bill. nbu. is the survey's avg., vs. 2.86 bill. bu. last month.
What do you think about the estimates? Are these too high, too low, irrelevant at this point? And do you think these numbers will be trumped Friday by South America's crop-weather?
Early calls: Corn 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 13-15 cents higher, and wheat 7-9 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.68per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, with more corporate earnings to be reported, stronger European markets and investors eyeing the U.S. Election Day results.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mixed, while Europe stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
11-06-2012 07:24 AM - edited 11-06-2012 07:35 AM
I know that folks are thinking about today's U.S. Elections. But, I wanted to mention a few items that are showing up on this morning's Dow Jones Newswire. Kazakhstan's 2012 grain output is halved, due to a drought. Ukraine's 2012 grain output is estimated to be down 16% at 43.0 million metric tons vs. 56 mmt a year ago.
I know Ukraine's Ag Minister put the kabosh on any talk of a grain export ban this month. But, if the region is significantly short of their normal crop, don't you think something has to give? It's not like these small crops are getting bigger! In fact, it seems like everytime an estimate comes out for these European countries, the estimates keep falling. And the drought is not subsiding.
Just a thought. It also makes me wonder if we have a situation similar to China running short on corn a year ago. Not only did they run short of corn (and had to become a net importer), but they couldn't supply their other Asian customers. So, those Asian countries had to look elsewhere for a supplier. Yes, the U.S. picked up some of that business.
What do you think? Any thoughts. It struck me as a topic to throw on the discussion table.
11-06-2012 07:40 AM
11-06-2012 07:43 AM
11-06-2012 07:49 AM
When the bins are empty a ban is unnecessary.
The charts SW put up a couple of threads down are very pertinent.
also ECIN is putting up good data and thoughts on this along with pits and pieces coming out of SA... hard to replenish stocks in droughts and floods.
Had a call from ECIN a little bit ago and his internet provider is having equipment issues and is internet deficient right now.
I was surprised at the no line at the ethonol plant yesterday afternoon. We are not in a corn deficient area.
11-06-2012 07:50 AM
. The twins are definitely working me over. My glasses turn all kinds of different shades. Because I knew it was going to rain today, I voted about two weeks ago. So, early voting was easy. At the polling place I voted, the line was non-existent. I would recommend that type of voting in 2016.
Also, I heard last night, that some folks will be able to vote for Paul Ryan twice. He's running as Vice-President and for Congressional office. I didn't know that was possible. Higher markets to start with today. As traders say, and maybe voters should keep this mind in a close race like this one, "It's not how you open, it's how you close!"
This race could open with early returns saying one thing and the final tally another.
11-06-2012 07:55 AM
Obama will win. I read something interesting as we head towardss 2014. A lot of businesses in the service sector of the economy have already started hiring people on a part time basis of 30 hours a week in order to get past Obamacare. The majority of the hotel and motel chains started doing this this summer. A lot of the fast food industry did as well. They pay these part timers a dollar more an hour, but they save quite a bit by not having to provide health insurance or pay the $2,000 fine.
In other news I've read this week, 58% of the jobs that have been "created" since Obama took office pay between $7.70-$13.83 an hour. To put this into perspective, the average median hourly wage in the U.S. is in the $20's. If we can continue this, we might just get back some of those jobs shipped overseas. With the majority of the jobs created being around minimum wage, it's just a matter of time before we get our deficit under control now isn't it?
11-06-2012 08:00 AM
this isnt getting a lot of press either..........but its real............
and yes gored, you heard right............its been going on for months............they are trying to use the loophole to skirt bobblecare..........and if you do the math, a $1 raise and a cut of 10 hours doesn't help that earner out............
11-06-2012 08:06 AM
I have been saying to myself all along, and haven't been voicing this to others. But, since it's Election Day, I will say now that it's not the next administration (regardless of the winner), instead the following one that will pull the U.S. economy out of the ditch. I likened it to building a golf course. It's said that the person that builds the golf course doesn't make it, rather the next owner of the course.
The U.S. housing, employment, debt, gasoline prices, non-manufacturing, entrepreneurship problems, etc., will take another four years of correction. Yes, the 'ship' can continue to be turned around. But, this is a big ship that turns very slowly. Don't get me wrong, I hope the ship catches the right waves and the propellers are helped in turning the vessal around faster. But, reality tells me that we have to run through another course owner before we add-on another 9-holes.