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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk February 1

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March corn futures closed 3 cents higher at $6.42. The March soybean contract ended 16 1/4 cents higher at $12.15 1/4. The March wheat futures settled 8 1/4 cents higher at $6.74 1/4. The March soymeal futures settled $3.00 per short ton higher at $322.30. The March soyoil futures settled $0.31 higher $51.18.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.85 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 126 points.

 

Mike

-------

At 1pm:

Soybeans and wheat have gained more strength, while corn has ticked back up a bit too.

 

One analyst says this afternoon, "The rally is Europe weather and Russia weather and US Dollar weakness and not much else.  I think some corn must have moved on the rally as that is the market that has pulled back the most.  In Wheat, the market knows there is still lots of wheat out there even with the losses near the Black Sea.  So, upside is probably pretty limited.  Soybeans are seeing better weather in South America but there has been some China talk.  Overall the demand sucks so that gives bulls pause in chasing this thing," he says.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures trade 2 cents higher at $6.41. The March soybean contract is trading 12 3/4 cents higher at $12.11 3/4. The March wheat futures are trading 6 3/4 cents higher at $6.72 3/4. The March soymeal futures are trading $2.40 per short ton higher at $321.70. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.22 higher $51.09.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 134 points.

 

One corn pit trader says the technicals show plenty of support. "Technicals show a daily trendline coming in at 640 1/2 and we opened strong with a high of 650 but shortly after market retreated to test that trendline and so far still holding. It is my belief that as long as we close above that trendline today provides us a bias to the long side with objectives just above $7 . Lets hope for some fundamentals to coincide to fuel this markets strength," he says.

 

While fresh demand helps the soybean market, winter weather in Russia underpins wheat. Full story on Russia's wheat weather.

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures trade 10 cents higher at $6.48 1/2. The March soybean contract opened 15 cents higher at $12.14 1/2. The March wheat futures opened 16 1/2 cents higher at $6.82 1/2. The March soymeal futures opened $1.50 per short ton higher at $320.70. The March soyoil futures opened $0.63 higher $51.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.63 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 139 points.

 

Farm markets surge higher.

 

Mike

-------------

At 7:55am:

USDA announces Wednesday that China bought 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2011-12 delivery. Plus, 120,000 mt of U.S. soft red wheat sold to an unknown buyer for 2011-12 delivery.

 

Mike

-----------

At 7:15am:

News, Noise & Notes:

--There is all kinds of bearish wheat news today. Ukraine exported 11.6 mmt of grain in July-January period. Of which, 6.0 mmt of it was corn and the rest wheat and barley.

--Russia's grain exports are up 80% on-year at 19.0 mmt.

--Western Australia is expecting a record wheat output at 15.0 mmt. That would make Australia's wheat output at 30.0 mmt.

--Japan seeks 300,000 mt of of feed wheat, barley.

--China may have booked a few cargoes of U.S. soybeans yesterday, one analyst says.

--Is it just me or are a lot of people talking about a possible drought, this year, in the Midwest? I'm hearing this kind of talk and stories of seed companies telling farmers they won't be able to get full orders of their preferred seed. Am I exaggerating this or are others hearing this same weather and seed talk?

 

Mike

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At 6:35am:

Early calls: Corn 7-9 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 9-11 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.62 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher as investors await ADP's U.S. national employment report and a construction spending report this morning.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks trade mostly higher. Europe stocks are higher.

 

Welcome to February! It's the month that determines crop insurance rates!

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,329
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

the fact that region shipped that much on the market and we still have tight supplies in corn............coupled with they might have to shut down or slow putting more pressure on reserves elsewhere.........coupled with production problems with feed grains in SA.......

 

tells me, we thought we had a lot, we did, we shipped, we used, we still have a problem but a smaller pile............

Veteran Contributor
docharing
Posts: 139
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

Mike, I am glad you're back today. Eastern corn belt is waterlogged, with more rain on the way. So far a very mild wet winter. Pioneer seed salesman said no worries about seed in our area, they have plenty. Maybe out west where all the "good" seed goes they have problems. We have been wet since last fall and are hoping for a dry spring. From what I understand from Betsy Freese, Iowa has had a very mild dry winter. There seems to be a different weather pattern in the Eastern corn belt vs. Western, will this continue?

Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 897
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

Mike Im glad you're back. I have gotten used to the frequent market updates and they are much appreciated....... Don't know about a drought here but the seed companies good varieties are getting short in supply. I was just told by the local seed company that I pre paid seed for in August that they don't have any regular RR seed without the Bt traits for my refuge. They had plenty of conventional non roundup seed for refuge acres though........ Not sure if they sold it all to a bigger fish than me or they didn't grow any or what the deal is but I've got a different  and larger regional company rep stopping in today. He already told me that his very best corn had been picked through..... We'll see how it goes.

 

On the dry weather.... The old saying plant in the mud the crop is a dud thing comes to mind. If it is dry at planting and guys get the chance to keep planting corn Im sure they will. If timely rain comes afterwards we could see a monster of a crop......... But the reality is we wont have the seed for 94 OR 95 million acres of corn... Possibly not even 93 million.... When the market realizes these rumors are fact the corn market will explode at least for a short while.... Just my thoughts.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

Blacksandfarmer,

 

Thanks for your kind words. We continue to hope the information provided helps you make the necessary decisions with your risk management plans. You bet. I heard the exact same thing from a handful of Jasper County, Iowa farmers recently. They say that some  folks are being offered convential seed, replacing their 'first choice' seed. I was even told that some seed companies grew some numbers in Argentina this year to replenish their supplies. Uh oh! Knowing how that country's growing season has gone, the seed problem may be more serious than we think. I don't know. I'm just passing along what I hear. Yes, the market is keeping both eyes and feet and arms and everything else on that March Planting Intentions Report. Will it be 92, 93, 94, 95 or less corn acres?

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

docharing,

 

Thanks. Good to hear from you. And, yes, be sure to listen to Betsy. She can tell you if you have a cold coming on even  before you have any symptoms. She is a good barometer of what's around the corner. :smileyhappy:

 

A fly over yesterday, in Wisconsin and northern Illinois, showed some ground covered with snow and rivers frozen over. But, there does seem to be a concern that a lot of Midwest ground will not see the freeze it could use before planting time. Sounds like it wouldn't take much of a wet spring to make for a muddy mess in your neighborhood?

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

Crop estimates for this Thursday's USDA Report are coming out:

 

Here is PFGBest.com's estimates for Jan. 9:

U.S. 2011-2012 CARRYOVER ESTIMATES:
                                 Corn        Soybeans     Wheat
USDA ESTIMATES   846           275            870
Pfgbest.com     =      820             270            860

                       WORLD 2011-12 CARRYOVER ESTIMATES:
                              Corn        Soybean            Wheat
  USDA 2011        128.06          68.58           199.94
  USDA 2012        128.14          63.43           210.02
  Pfgbest.com    = 127.90          63.00           205.00
 
           SOUTH AMERICA CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATES:
                                          USDA ESTIMATES JAN. 9
                                     Pfgbest.com    2011-12      2010-11
Argentina corn crop        24.50          26.00        22.50
Argentina soybean crop  50.00         50.50        49.00
Brazil corn crop               59.50         61.00        57.50

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,127
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

PFG's numbers are Slightly bullish.  

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,233
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

Never have I had as diametrically opposed perspective to yours, regarding wheat.

The news I'm receiving is massively bullish at the moment. Ukraine's poor wheat prospects are deteriorating precipitously and Russia is figuring out how to throttle exports. There's more, but my market on the Asian Rim has shot up to $7 but and I think interest is driven by feed!
Veteran Contributor
dennymal
Posts: 108
Registered: ‎05-15-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

Marketeye

 

Was told by a large seed companies agronomist the seed set for their argentine production was 110 percent. I personally would be very surprised if there was under 94 million acres of corn planted. Doing the math corn is a no brainer especially if you are on higher priced rental ground. I'm jumping up to a 70 30 percentage in corn acres. I'd plant more but I have a lucrative seed bean contract. I didn't have any problem getting the varieties I wanted. I don't have the corn in the shed yet either.