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02-01-2013 06:45 AM - edited 02-01-2013 02:17 PM
At the close:
The March futures corn contract closed 4 cents lower at $7.36. The March soybean futures contract settled 6 cents higher at $14.74. March wheat futures ended 15 cents lower at $7.64 per bushel. The March soymeal futures closed $1.50 per short ton higher at $427.90.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.38 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 139 points higher. On Friday, the Dow broke through the 14,000 level for the first time since 2007.
The March futures corn contract is trading 1 cent lower at $7.38. The March soybean futures contract is trading 5 cents higher at $14.74. March wheat futures are trading 7 cents lower at $7.71 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.28 higher at $53.14. The March soymeal futures are trading $1.00 per short ton higher at $427.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 136 points higher. On Friday, the Dow broke through the 14,000 level for the first time since 2007.
Russia's grain export ban update:
A contact in Ukraine offers this update about on the prospects of a Russian grain export ban.
"The Russian domestic prices now are so high that it is not reasonable to export. It is rather sell the grain on the Russian market. So there is no need to impose export ban. The domestic prices on milling wheat in Russia is now 10,500-11,000 RUB/Mt ($351.56-368.29)/Mt.
Hope this helps,
Informa's South American Crop Estimates released Friday:
Brazil's 2013-14 soybean production= 84.0 mmt
Brazil's 2013-14 corn production=70.3 mmt, lowered from other private firms' earlier estimates.
Argentina's 2013-14 corn production= 25.0 mmt.
Argentina's 2013-14 soybean production= 54.5 mmt
Argentina's 2013-14 wheat production= 9.5 mmt
The only surprise of all of these estimates seems to be the lower Brazil corn output estimate. What say you?
At the open:
The March futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $7.46. The March soybean futures contract is trading 16 cents higher at $14.85. March wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $7.87 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.43 higher at $53.29. The March soymeal futures are trading $4.90 per short ton higher at $431.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.77 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 128 points higher. On Friday, the Dow broke through the 14,000 level for the first time since 2007.
I had the opportunity to speak at the Ag Connect Expo in Kansas City, Missouri, this week. Shaggy98 stopped by and said hello. Thanks Shaggy98. There was a pretty decent crowd there, I thought. After my presentation, I asked the audience members to raise their hands if they are still sitting on some old-crop corn. There were some hands that went up, but not a lot. Of course, the crowd could have been filled with a bunch of Kansas wheat growers too. But it was fun. As I listened to myself, I realized the picture I was painting for corn and soybean prices was a bearish one.
Also, part of the presentation included a Skype interview with an ag economist from Argentina and a Brazilian market consultant. They both confirmed the market's concerns about smaller-than-expected corn and bean outputs in Argentina, due to drought stress and logistical problems in Brazil.
So, now it's your turn to take the stage. Can you offer up five reasons for farmers to be bullish corn, going into the fall? List five, please:
Thanks for sharing,
--Informa comes out today with new South American crop estimates.
--Bullishness is spreading throughout the chartists and fundamentalists.
--Read this about China realizes the need for grain imports.
Early calls: Corn is seen 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 13-15 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.27 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, ahead of non-farm payrolls report.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed and Europe's stocks higher.
More in a minute,
02-01-2013 08:00 AM
For current CASH prices (grain in the bin now prices) Almost the only basis I deal with, as I have ground that is always a mystery as to production. I can't deal with anything till after harvest. My eastern farms are very flood prone and my western farms are drought and hail prone.
02-01-2013 08:07 AM
WOW.... Hmmmm is this something new? Somebody just have an ephiffiney? I believe this has been talked about almost adnausium right here on this discussion board for that last year and a half.
02-01-2013 08:52 AM
1. Drouth in Next Year Country and the upper midwest.
2. Failure to reduce cow calf and sow numbers.
3. Ethanol mandates will continue;
4. The dollar is 79.2 this morning, and it will be falling, making our exports cheaper;
5. but the most important, Misinforma, Unprofessional Farmer, ISU Economists, believe we are headed for a 14,000,000,000 bu. corn crop, and average yields of over 160 bu. per acre. These guys are just frontrunners in the grain markets, placeing their bets before they release their little projections, just like the vampire squids in New York.
02-01-2013 08:52 AM
5 reasons for higher prices this fall:
1) no rain
2) lack of mositure
3) hot july temperatures
4) drought in other growing area's in the world,,,,,,South America, or Europe, Russia, Black Sea region.
5) higher export numbers
6) $100 plus crude oil--- might spur more ethanol demand
With the amount of acrage that is opened up in the past few years I don't know if we need any rally to buy new crop acres. Everything will be planted to something.
China needs grain but we are not the only store on main street.
With 99 million acres and average weather we will have more corn then what we know what to do with. Its possilbe that we could see $4.25 corn this fall board price.
course with another short crop $7 plus corn is probably sustainable, unless we lose ALL DEMAND
just my opinion
that being said $7.50 local price at my coop buys alot of what I got left.