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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk February 1

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March futures corn contract closed 4 cents lower at $7.36. The March soybean futures contract settled 6 cents higher at $14.74. March wheat futures ended 15 cents lower at $7.64 per bushel. The March soymeal futures closed $1.50 per short ton higher at $427.90. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.38 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 139 points higher. On Friday, the Dow broke through the 14,000 level for the first time since 2007.

 

Mike

---------

At mid-day:

The March futures corn contract is trading 1 cent lower at $7.38. The March soybean futures contract is trading 5 cents higher at $14.74. March wheat futures are trading 7 cents lower at $7.71 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.28 higher at $53.14. The March soymeal futures are trading $1.00 per short ton higher at $427.40. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 136 points higher. On Friday, the Dow broke through the 14,000 level for the first time since 2007.

 

Mike

---------

At 12-Noon:

 

Russia's grain export ban update:

 

A contact in Ukraine offers this update about on the prospects of a Russian grain export ban.

 

"The Russian domestic prices now are so high that it is not reasonable to export. It is rather sell the grain on the Russian market. So there is no need to impose export ban. The domestic prices on milling wheat in Russia is now 10,500-11,000 RUB/Mt ($351.56-368.29)/Mt.

 

Hope this helps,

 

 

Mike

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At 10:45am:

Informa's South American Crop Estimates released Friday:

 

Brazil's 2013-14 soybean production= 84.0 mmt

Brazil's 2013-14 corn production=70.3 mmt, lowered from other private firms' earlier estimates.

 

Argentina's 2013-14 corn production= 25.0 mmt.

Argentina's 2013-14 soybean production= 54.5 mmt

Argentina's 2013-14  wheat production= 9.5 mmt

 

The only surprise of all of these estimates seems to be the lower Brazil corn output estimate. What say you?

 

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $7.46. The March soybean futures contract is trading 16 cents higher at $14.85. March wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $7.87 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.43 higher at $53.29. The March soymeal futures are trading $4.90 per short ton higher at $431.60. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.77 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 128 points higher. On Friday, the Dow broke through the 14,000 level for the first time since 2007.

 

 

Mike

------------

At 8:15am:

I had the opportunity to speak at the Ag Connect Expo in Kansas City, Missouri, this week. Shaggy98 stopped by and said hello. Thanks Shaggy98. There was a pretty decent crowd there, I thought. After my presentation, I asked the audience members to raise their hands if they are still sitting on some old-crop corn. There were some hands that went up, but not a lot. Of course, the crowd could have been filled with a bunch of Kansas wheat growers too. But it was fun. As I listened to myself, I realized the picture I was painting for corn and soybean prices was a bearish one.

 

Also, part of the presentation included a Skype interview with an ag economist from Argentina and a Brazilian market consultant. They both confirmed the market's concerns about smaller-than-expected corn and bean outputs in Argentina, due to drought stress and logistical problems in Brazil. 

 

So, now it's your turn to take the stage. Can you offer up five reasons for farmers to be bullish corn, going into the fall? List five, please:

 

1.

 

2.

 

3.

 

4.

 

5.

 

Thanks for sharing,

 

Mike

---------

At 7:41am:

 

--Informa comes out today with new South American crop estimates.

--Bullishness is spreading throughout the chartists and fundamentalists.

--Read this about China realizes the need for grain imports.

 

Mike

--------

At 6:45am: 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 13-15 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.27 per barrel lower
Dollar=Lower. 
Wall Street=Seen higher, ahead of non-farm payrolls report.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed and Europe's stocks higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,136
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

These last few days, you get into a losing position.  Wait 10 hours you will be in the money!!! WHEW.  

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,044
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Fiddling with the basis again

Corn picked up about a nickel the last day and a half BUT beans lost 10 cents basis yesterday afternoon. +20 corn local, -25 beans local,+25 Bunge West beans

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Contributor
Jed Stivers
Posts: 136
Registered: ‎07-10-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

Hobby you talking about old or new crop basis?
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,044
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk February 1

For current CASH prices (grain in the bin now prices) Almost the only basis I deal with, as I have ground that is always a mystery as to production. I can't deal with anything till after harvest. My eastern farms are very flood prone and my western farms are drought and hail prone.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,044
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

"China realizes the need for grain imports."

 

WOW.... Hmmmm is this something new? Somebody just have an ephiffiney? I believe this has been talked about almost adnausium right here on this discussion board for that last year and a half.   

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 1

Hobbyfarmer,

 

China seems to be really slow to admit the realities of their economies.

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,044
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

Their actions have been speaking volumes for some time now.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Advisor
Faust100F
Posts: 831
Registered: ‎11-09-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 1

1. Drouth in Next Year Country and the upper midwest.

2. Failure to reduce cow calf and sow numbers.

3. Ethanol mandates will continue;

4. The dollar is 79.2 this morning, and it will be falling, making our exports cheaper;

5. but the most important, Misinforma, Unprofessional Farmer, ISU Economists, believe we are headed for a 14,000,000,000 bu. corn crop, and average yields of over 160 bu. per acre.  These guys are just frontrunners in the grain markets, placeing their bets before they release their little projections, just like the vampire squids in New York.

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 1

5 reasons for higher prices this fall:

 

1) no rain

 

2) lack of mositure

 

3) hot july temperatures

 

4) drought in other growing area's in the world,,,,,,South America, or Europe, Russia, Black Sea region.  

 

5) higher export numbers

 

6) $100 plus crude oil--- might spur more ethanol demand

 

With the amount of acrage that is opened up in the past few years I don't know if we need any rally to buy new crop acres.  Everything will be planted to something.  

China needs grain but we are not the only store on main street.  

With 99 million acres and average weather we will have more corn then what we know what to do with.   Its possilbe that we could see $4.25 corn this fall board price.  

 

course with another short crop $7 plus corn is probably sustainable, unless we lose ALL DEMAND

 

just my opinion

 

that being said $7.50 local price at my coop buys alot of what I got left.