02-11-2013 06:26 AM - edited 02-11-2013 04:15 PM
At the close:
The March futures corn contract settled 6 cents lower at $7.02. The March soybean futures contract finished 21 cents lower at $14.31. March wheat futures finished 14 cents lower at $7.41 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract settled $0.19 lower at $51.24. The March soymeal futures finished $9.40 per short ton lower at $413.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 16 points lower.
The March futures corn contract is trading 2 cents lower at $7.06. The March soybean futures contract is trading 20 cents lower at $14.31. March wheat futures are trading 11 cents lower at $7.44 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.40 lower at $51.03. The March soymeal futures are trading $8.50 per short ton lower at $413.90.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.90 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 25 points lower.
At the open:
The March futures corn contract is trading 1 cent lower at $7.07. The March soybean futures contract is trading 17 cents lower at $14.35. March wheat futures are trading 4 cents lower at $7.52 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.39 lower at $51.04. The March soymeal futures are trading $6.60 per short ton lower at $415.90.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points lower.
No fresh sales Monday.
The early morning market chatter centers around rain that fell in parts of Argentina and southern Brazil, over the weekend. And a little more is expected in upcoming days. This, combined with fund liquidation, is setting the farm markets back today.
Also, the Dow Jones Newswire is reporting that at least one bank's analysts see July corn marching towards $9.00 this summer. Also, the same bank sees Brazil's corn exports slowing in the next month, sparking an increase of U.S. corn exports.
COMING UP: We'll check for any fresh export sales at 8:00am. And, stay tuned for a fresh update of South America's weather from our trusty counterparts in Brazil and Argentina.
Here's a technical look at the corn market, according to Tom White, FutureRoad.net analyst and CME Group corn pit trader. In his own words:
"The market closed lower every day, last week. After maintaining a bullish bias after the last crop report, we had a reversal day last Friday which did indicate the potential for weakness last Monday. The market tested a short-term pitchfork mid-line, which we discussed last week, and then closed below the bottom of a regression trend channel in the middle of the week. This contributed to a continuation of selling on Thursday and Friday with the market closing several cents from the bottom of the weekly range.
While the selling last week was sustained, we are not convinced that the market has returned to a “longer-term” bearish bias. The move up was completed in five waves. It is possible that the five waves was part of a larger Wave 1. Thus, the move lower could still be a corrective Wave 2; second waves can be large, i.e. it is not unusual to move back to .618 or .786 of the entire leg of Wave 1. We have not done so as yet and there is another pitchfork pattern (see below) which might reinforce the concept that we still could test lower.
At this point, the wave pattern is just theoretical, but we will continue to monitor for its possibility. In summary, we hold open the possibility that the move lower is corrective, after the recent buying. Even if that is true, there are patterns which indicate we still could move lower. But, we should also look for a move back to the weekly mean (719) at some point during the upcoming week," White says.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 17-18cents lower, and wheat 3-5 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.29 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, as Google Inc. get set to announce earnings. On Tuesday, the President delivers the State of the Union address. The market gets fed some real food on Wednesday, as retail sales will be released.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher and Europe's stocks were mostly higher.
More in a minute,
02-11-2013 07:00 AM
Mike, Got to like all of the range pattern, wave, and fork talk........no one needs to understand it and it sounds good until the next big China cancellation or China sale blows it up.
02-11-2013 07:39 AM
One of the most consistant trends of all is the winter to spring down grade of the SA production projections. Happens as the big planting intentions reports come out and the overstatement of the SA crop is not needed for price control.
This year we may be a little more desperate to hold onto that high prediction. But not likely, when we don't need them anymore the news will be in the fine print.
02-11-2013 08:30 AM
Sorry here but the Hoosier needs some help --- again .
My question is what crops are we trading here ? New or Old ? It seems to me that we are tarding old crop as new crop .
I'm just say 'n' that look at what happened to beans laast Friday and today , They raise S.A. Yields and old crop go's to the chitter , yet we are record short carry on old crop --- maybe some day in June when the bin's are empty they will wake up --but I don't it .
How about corn to , I read a article the other day that CONAB - I think that's the same as the USDA in SA said they predicted a record corn crop now , they raised there -- huh -- huh - Guess to 76.6 vs. 72.2 and the USDA prediction at 71 , Now my friends , here's a Laugh your azz off moment , there ws only like 5 precent of the crop even planted ! They said the conditions look good ! How many times have we seen that one ?
Read that La Salle predicted 95 on corn -- well that sounded better than most , but they went on to say the yield was at 162 bpa . I guess we should all fell proud that everybody has so much faith in us to pull a rabbit out the waszo, lol
02-11-2013 09:04 AM
This story indicates there are other complications to SA crop and specifically Brazil crops reaching the international market.
As Brazilian farmers start to harvest their soybeans, everyone involved with transporting the 2012/13 soybean crop are expecting the freight cost to increase significantly once again this year. According to research conducted by the Universidade de Sao Paulo, in the two top producing states of Mato Grosso and Parana, the soybean harvest should peak during the months of February and March and freight rates during that period may increase as much as 50%. In the other soybean producing states, the freight rates are expected to increase 20% to 40%.
02-11-2013 09:42 AM
SA corn to the export market has hung on a lot longer than most analysts predicted. It wouldn't surprise me that even though SA beans are slower coming to the market than predicted that they hang around much deeper and longer than most will predict. Old crop beans have a story especially if the crush report coming out this week shows a record crush. However, new crop beans could get very ugly if SA is still exporting large quantities of beans late in the fourth quarter of the year. New crop corn prices don't really look very attractive. I question the huge acreage predictions being thrown around on corn. If we don't see new crop corn in the mid 6's come late April early May, then I doubt we plant any more acres of corn than we planted in 2012.