Marketing

[roarintiger1]

Geez, there is no fork or wave on that chart.......must be one of those funny-mental charts.         

[marketeye]

USDA Baseline Projections released Monday.

What do you think? I know these numbers are considered to be of little importance. But, it's still feed for the markets.

U.S. corn baseline
=============================================================================
Item        2011/12  2012/13  2013/14  2014/15  2015/16  2016/17
=============================================================================
 
Area (million acres):
 
 Planted acres 91.9     96.9     96.0     90.0     86.0     88.0
 Harvested acre84.0     87.7     88.3     82.3     78.3     80.3
 
Yields (bushels per acre):
 
Yield/harvest 147.2    122.3    163.5    165.4    167.4    169.3
 
Supply and use (million bushels):
 
Begin stocks 1,128     988      647    2,067    2,232    1,817
 Production  12,358   10,725   14,435   13,610   13,105   13,595
 Imports     29      100       25       25       25       25
   Supply    13,515   11,814   15,107   15,702   15,362   15,437
 
 Feed/residual4,547    4,150    5,250    5,300    5,250    5,375
 Food,seed,in.6,437    5,867    6,090    6,270    6,295    6,340
Fuel alcohol 5,011    4,500    4,675    4,825    4,825    4,850
   Domestic  10,984   10,017   11,340   11,570   11,545   11,715
 Exports     1,543    1,150    1,700    1,900    2,000    2,050
   Total use 12,527   11,167   13,040   13,470   13,545   13,765
 
 Ending stocks 988      647    2,067    2,232    1,817    1,672
 Stocks/use %  7.9      5.8     15.9     16.6     13.4     12.1
 
Prices (dollars per bushel):
 
 Farm price  6.22     7.60     5.40     4.10     4.30     4.40
 
Variable costs of production (dollars):
 
 Per acre    335      348      349      349      349      352
 
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):
 
 Net returns  580      582      534      329      371      393
=============================================================================
Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn.
 
 
 
U.S. corn baseline (continued)
=============================================================================
Item       2017/18  2018/19  2019/20  2020/21  2021/22  2022/23
=============================================================================
 
Area (million acres):
 
Planted 89.0     90.0     90.5     91.0     91.5     92.0
Harvest 81.3     82.3     82.8     83.3     83.8     84.3
 
Yields (bushels per acre):
 
Yield/harv 171.3    173.2    175.1    177.1    179.0    181.0
 
Supply and use (million bushels):
 
Begin sto. 1,672    1,617    1,627    1,617    1,592    1,547
Production 13,925   14,255   14,500   14,750   15,000   15,260
Imports    25       25       25       25       25       25 Supply    15,622   15,897   16,152   16,392   16,617   16,832
 
Feed/resid. 5,475    5,575    5,650    5,725    5,800    5,875  Food/seed/ind.6,405    6,495    6,610    6,725    6,845    6,960
Fuel alcohol 4,900    4,975    5,075    5,175    5,275    5,375
Domestic    11,880   12,070   12,260   12,450   12,645   12,835
Exports      2,125    2,200    2,275    2,350    2,425    2,500
Total use    14,005   14,270   14,535   14,800   15,070   15,335
 
Ending stocks1,617    1,627    1,617    1,592    1,547    1,497
Stocks/use % 11.5     11.4     11.1     10.8     10.3      9.8
 
Prices (dollars per bushel):
 
 Farm price 4.50     4.55     4.60     4.65     4.75     4.85
 
Variable costs of production (dollars):
 
 Per acre   358      364      371      377      384      390
 
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):
 
 Net returns413      424      435      446      466      487
=============================================================================
Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn.
 

[Hobbyfarmer]

I looked and I looked and I did not find 100 million in an acre column. I also saw declining corn acres for later years.

The one thing I did see was that big "trend line" yield thing again coupled with mid to upper 90's plantings. They must still using those left over rose colored glasses from a few years ago their professors passed out when they graduated from "corn college U".

[c-x-1]

forgot to add - index funds added 3000 W, 11,000 C, 2500 S

Mike,

that is the best one i have heard in a while...."FUNNY, MENTAL KIND OF GUY"!!!  LM- BLEEPIN- AO

I will argue that one can be a technical - funny- mental kind of guy with a pitchfork AND a nail in the brain.

[GoredHusker]

I'll buy the 900,000 less acres for 13/14.  However, there's not a chance we raise a 163.5 national average on that high of acreage number.  Even with perfect to near perfect weather, we won't raise a 163.5 on 95+ million acres.  In order to see that kind of national average, we'll have to see planted acres in the mid to uper 80's. 

[farsider]

Say like in 2004 and 2009 ? Those are the 2 years we saw 160+ average and it was on less than 80 million acres harvested, slightly over 80 planted in 04 with 73.6 harvested and I think around 86 planted with 78.6 harvested in 09.  and just for a bit more information there were only 3 other crops that eclipsed the 150 barrier  in 07,08 and 2011.  Trendline yield model would mean something if the variables would remain static but they don't so a stab in the dark is just as effective as what any company and the usda use to come up with yield at this early a stage in the year. Of the 3 years we planted over 90 million acres we were at 151.1 in 07, 147.2 in 11 and 123.4 in 12, nothing to convince me that 160 is possible on that many acres but there is the perfect season we can look forward to and eclipse all records.  I agree wholeheartedly with you Gored.

[highyields]

well I don't think we can maintain that kind of trend line yield.  ALL the major increase in acres will have to come from western or southern corn belt acres.    both are highly variable in yield.  Especially with rain fed acres.   

I also don't think we can keep our exports that high.  we aren't exporting any now.   If our price is $2 a bushel or so over the world price, why would anyone buy our $4 corn when they can buy <$4 corn some where else. 

Yes I agree Rose colored glasses. 

[c-x-1]

I Hear you, roarin - here's same chart with a line for recent selloff---hitting it right @ the .618 retrace.

Mike, roarin,

I believe this @ least similar to a PICTURE of what Tom White is describing with Corn (this is basis Mar. or Old ECIN)  minus the pitchforks and nails.

[roarintiger1]

c-x-1,  thanks.......The way I see your chart is,  we spend way too much time below the lines and not enough time above the lines.......but that's just me.    

[Threadkiller]

if everyone would just dig a root pit and stare into it for awhile like they do at corn college, we'd easily get that 163 yield. *************