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Floor Talk February 15

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures settled 4 1/2¢ higher at $3.78 3/4, and new crop December 2017 futures finishd 3 1/4¢ higher at $4.02 3/4 per bushel. March soybean futures closed 16 1/4¢ higher at $10.61 1/4, while November 2017 soybean futures finished 11 1/4¢ higher at $10.34 1/4. March wheat futures ended 5 1/4¢ higher at $4.54 3/4. March soy meal futures closed $7.40 short ton higher at $346.90. March soy oil futures ended $0.20 lower at 33.94¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.10 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 97 points higher.

 

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says that there are forecasts for some big rains in the next few days and into the weekend in Argentina. 
“Some areas could get another 6 to 8 inches, so flood fears are out there.  The Brazil harvest is moving forward, but the producer is still not selling very much.  The Real is now over 32.5 cents and at the beginning of December it was down near 28 cents,” Scoville says.  The producer wants more real per ton than he is going to get.”
Price support is coming from China demand ideas that remain strong and ideas are that we are benefiting because of delayed sales in Brazil and the Arg rains, Scoville says.  “Wheat strength is all about the crops breaking dormancy in the west and greening up.  Still just halfway through Feb, so if the wheat gets going and then we freeze again a small crop could get much smaller.” 
Corn is up with the others and on lack of U.S. farmer-selling against good ethanol and export demand, Scoville says.

 

Mike

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At 10am;

The U.S. weekly ethanol production has hit a seve week low, according to the RFA report released Wednesday.

 

According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, ethanol production averaged 1.040 million barrels per day (b/d)—or 43.68 million gallons daily. That is down 15,000 b/d from the week before and a seven-week low. The four-week average for ethanol production dipped to 1.052 million b/d for an annualized rate of 16.13 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 22.5 million barrels. That is a 1.9% increase from last week and the highest since late March 2016.

Imports of ethanol remained flat at zero b/d for the 25th week in a row.

Gasoline demand for the week averaged 354.2 million gallons (8.433 million barrels) daily. Refiner/blender input of ethanol averaged 847,000 b/d, meaning gasoline contained an average of 10.04% ethanol. Year-to-date, gasoline has contained an average of 10.03% ethanol.

Expressed as a percentage of daily gasoline demand, daily ethanol production was 12.33%.

 

Mike

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At 9am:

In early trading, the March corn futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $3.73, and new crop December 2017 futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $3.98 per bushel. March soybean futures are 1/2¢ higher at $10.45, while November 2017 soybean futures are 1/2¢ higher at $10.23. March wheat futures are unchanged at $4.49. March soy meal futures are $0.30 short ton lower at $339.20. March soy oil futures are $0.07 higher at 34.21¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.22 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 31 points higher.

 

Mike

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Grains and soybeans were slightly lower overnight as the value of the dollar continues to creep up to the highest level in a month. Corn futures lost about 1.5 cents, beans were down about 3 cents and wheat was off by about 2 cents. Export inspections this week were good for corn, but not so great for beans and wheat, but the year-over-year figures show how strong demand has been for U.S. goods thus far. In weather news, it's going to start warming up into the weekend and give those in the Midwest and Plains a little taste of spring. Growing up in Nebraska, I know how this will play out -- winter will make another push sometime soon, but at least there's light at the end of the tunnel. 


Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.7% higher.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.6% higher. 

Dollar = up 0.2%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures mixed in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher after Yellen's speech. 

Honored Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk February 15

Bunge West Council Bluffs, Iowa is at $9.9925 bu

Honored Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk February 15

anybody have a guess as to what turned the markets upward today??

 

We get every reason on earth for them to go down.

Honored Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk February 15

They used them all. 

Someone must have bought another boatload.

Honored Advisor
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Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: Floor Talk February 15

Honored Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk February 15

Remember that line "Houston we have a problem".

 

Well with harvest less than half done and quality and test weight plummeting I wonder if the latest call is "China we have a problem"?

 

Ray J posted the feeling was maybe 70% of our crop was already out of farmer control here. That was several weeks ago. That % has only gone up since then.

 

At around the 80% level the commercials take over the control lever. 

 

If much of the last half of the SA bean crop starts to look like the ones in the pictures, who's gonna buy them and at what price?  They need to be made into soy meal quickly, not stored in the hull of a ship. I hear May be more moisture on the way....

 

If 70+% of ours are already owned by an end user or commercial already used or committed and it's 7 months till the next harvest ... hmmmm, soy Roy could still be correct.

Honored Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk February 15

This close will help the insurance guarantee  Smiley Happy  To listen to the Henny Penny new media, you`d swear the sky was falling...the Dow hit another record high, all the hand wrining about "Mexican senators", corn, beans and pork aren`t exactly crashing.  If the trade believed the papers youd think they`d put their cash in a cream can and head for the hills.

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Re: Floor Talk February 15

here is a google translate of the first paragraph. With constant rainfall, MT already has soybeans sprouting in the field Posted 14/02/2017 16:28 and updated on 02/02/2017 17:13 AddThis Sharing Buttons Share to TwitterShare to Facebook Share to TwitterShare to Facebook 5 views The rains that continue to arrive in Mato Grosso continue to worry the local producers, who are with the soybean harvest paralyzed in the state. In some places the rains are constant and in many regions the occurrence of burned grains is already quite high. In Nova Mutum, for example, there are about 50% of the soybeans still being harvested, according to the president of the local Rural Union, Luiz Carlos Gonçalves. And despite this, with a planting that also happened earlier, the harvest in Mato Grosso is quite advanced, according to the latest figures from the Imea (Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural and Livestock Economics). As of Friday (10), the field work had already been completed in 45.79% of the area, with an advance of 20.1% compared to the 2015/1 season
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Re: Floor Talk February 15

Greatly appreciated booked.