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02-17-2012 06:30 AM - edited 02-17-2012 01:29 PM
At the close:
The March corn futures settled 5 1/2 cents higher at $6.41 3/4. The March soybean contract closed 9 1/4 cents higher at $12.67 1/2. The March wheat futures settled 15 1/4 cents higher at $6.44. The March soymeal futures ended $1.70 per short ton higher at $332.50. The March soyoil futures closed $0.35 higher at $53.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.74 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 40 points.
One floor trader says, "The rally is based off of technicals rather than fundamentals.
We've hanging more towards the highs vs. the lows. At some point, the market attempts to break through those levels. And, I think that's what is happening here. The trader that is short the market is getting blown out of the market. That trader is gone for the weekend. That short trader has decided to not battle this uptrend right now," he says.
The fundamental traders are letting the technical traders have their day in the sun and just get to the sidelines, he says.
Meanwhile, the big soybean sale to China, announced Friday, and the news that Ukraine may suspend wheat exports, has no market impact, one grain analyst says.
"I'm being told that it's Friday, we are headed for a long weekend, and the rally is based upon the short-covering that is going on," he says.
Separately, the corn trade is starting to believe the old-crop corn contracts are under-priced and the new-crop corn futures prices are over-priced.
However, the soybean trade minds see the old-crop soybean contracts over-priced and the new-crop futures contracts are not as high as they should be, based upon the lower crop estimates in South America.
On Friday, the USDA announced fresh export grain and soybean demand. Surprisingly enough, some grain analysts believe short-covering, not new export sales is driving the markets Friday."
The March corn futures trade 9 3/4 cents higher at $6.46. The March soybean contract is trading 13 cents higher at $12.71 1/4. The March wheat futures are trading 16 3/4 cents higher at $6.45 1/2. The March soymeal futures are trading $3.60 per short ton higher at $334.40. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.55 higher at $53.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.60 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 24 points.
At the open:
The March corn futures trade 5 3/4 cents higher at $6.42. The March soybean contract is trading 13 1/4 cents higher at $12.71 1/2. The March wheat futures are trading 9 cents higher at $6.37 3/4. The March soymeal futures are trading $2.40 per short ton higher at $333.20. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.49 higher at $53.54.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.61 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 32 points.
Reminder: The CME Group grain and soybean markets are closed Monday for President's Day. Also, the overnight market on Sunday night will be closed.
USDA announces Friday:
--120,000 mt of Soft Red Winter wheat were sold to an 'unknown' buyer for 2011-12 delivery.
--20,000 mt of U.S. soyoil were sold to Morocco for 2011-12 delivery.
--132,000 mt of U.S. corn were sold to South Korea for 2011-12 delivery.
--173,000 mt of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2011-12 delivery.
--2.75 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2012-13 delivery.
--Argentina's 2011-12 soybean output has been lowered to 43.5-45.0 mmt vs. earlier estimates of 48.0 mmt, according to the Ag Minister of Argentina.
--S. Korea buyer purchases 55,000 mt of optional origin corn.
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 7-9 cents higher, and wheat 8-10 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.45 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading mixed ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index Report Friday.
More in a minute,
02-17-2012 09:19 AM
There's swirling talk that Ukraine will eventually export less-than-expected wheat this year. The trade is trying to get a better handle on this talk, since the Ukraine government is slow to release formal details. South America's crop prospects keep falling, fresh export sales keep hitting the market daily, and all of this is on top of already tight corn supplies and less-than-needed 2012 soybean acres. Where is this market going? What do you think?