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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,889
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk February 19

[ Edited ]

Help: I would like to ask for some help. I'm trying to guage all of your interests on a marketing conference. Could you take a minute and answer a few questions to help me out, please?

 

 

3 short questions.

 

 

Thanks for your time and all that you do,

 

Mike

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At the close:

The March futures corn contract settled 3 cents lower at $6.95. The March soybean futures contract finished 45 cents higher at $14.70. March wheat futures closed 10 cents lower at $7.32 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract ended $0.91 higher at $52.53. The March soymeal futures finished $15.90 per short ton higher at $425.30


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.59 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points higher.

 

Mike

 

 

At mid-session:

The March futures corn contract is trading 5 cents lower at $6.93. The March soybean futures contract is trading 39 cents higher at $14.63. March wheat futures are trading 13 cents lower at $7.28 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.62 higher at $52.24. The March soymeal futures are trading $14.90 per short ton higher at $424.30


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.04 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 46 points higher.

 

One analyst says, "After a $1.00  drop in prices the last 8 trading days, there was room for profit taking. Two issues triggered the move. One , China trade group late Friday announced they agreed to a billion dollar plus trade agreement with a major Midwest state producer. This is not uncommon for this time of year as they come to the US before  spring to negotiate good trade policies. They finish in Washington to sign the new years trade agreement.That was friendly today because it confirms that they intend to buy big again this year and it puts pressure on the us to grow a bigger crop.Two, weekend rains were needed in southern Brazil  came in  much lighter than expected.Beans big drop the last week saw a increase in new short positions by twenty seven thousand contracts.They all wanted out today but more rain looks to come this week so expect a soft spot in prices Wednesday as funds turn the page to whats new."

 

Meanwhile, another analyst says the rally has to do with what is going on in Brazil. "I think the bean rally is related as much to the stevedore strike in Brazil as anything.  Wheat lower on the snow forecasts for the Great Plains, and Corn aught in between.  My sources report good crops in Brazil and Argentina, at least as high as anything seen in the press here, so I am discounting the Arg weather as reason to rally.  The only thing that makes sense is the strike and this one is not the run of the mill port strike down there.  This one could get nasty as jobs, union jobs, are at stake.  I think China has figured that out and is taking coverage here.  Things move smoothly down there and we could lose the biz fast, but if this takes a while and it probably will, we got a super tight situation here and who knows where prices go!  My commercial side is quiet, I told farmers to keep an eye on the rally and be ready to move some beans once a resolution seems to appear as it could turn south in a hurry.  Probably corn too.  Basis is sky high in the interior, farmers might want to book some basis either way just in case."

 

Mike

-----------

At 10:45am:

Soybeans are still rallying, corn and wheat fall. It looks like the drought had a negative impact on the protein levels of U.S. soybeans, according to results of a U.S. soybean checkoff-funded study.

 

Here's an excerpt of the United Soybean Board announcement Tuesday: "The results of the soy checkoff’s annual U.S. Soybean Quality Survey found the oil level in the overall U.S. soybean crop rose by 0.3 point to 18.5 percent last year. And protein dropped a half-point to 34.3 percent."

 

Mike

-----

At the open:

The March futures corn contract opened 1 cent higher at $7.00. The March soybean futures contract opened 21 cents higher at $14.45. March wheat futures open 1 cent lower at $7.41 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract opened $0.40 higher at $52.02. The March soymeal futures are trading $8.10 per short ton higher at $417.50


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.50 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.

 

Mike

--------------

At 8am:

--USDA announces Tuesday that China bought 120,000 tons  of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.

--Russia sells 64,780 tons of Intervention grain.

--It's being reported that 11 million metric tons worth of vessels are waiting at the Brazilian ports to load corn, soybeans and wheat. In addition, I'm hearing that there are talks about privatization in Paranagua and Santos, the main Brazilian ports.

 

Mike

---------------

At 6:00am: 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 17-19 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.44per barrel lower
Dollar=Higher. 
Wall Street=Seen higher.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixe and Europe's stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,426
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

Nice to see some green this morning.........

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,889
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

roarintiger1,

 

Yes, I agree.

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,311
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

Are the beans up because of the widespread rains for Argintina did not show up as expected?

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,006
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

“The market hasn’t priced in yet potential delays to deliveries. It’s a good buying opportunity.”--------------- bloomberg quote this morning on concerns over SA ability to export the volume when needed.

 

 

sw
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,426
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

sw,  I agree.  But I don't think the market has priced in a number of problems that are occuring.   Remember that February is a good time to have a drought in the U.S.    However, February becomes March and March becomes April......you get the picture.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,006
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

Hobby,

"Argentine farmers have sold 35 percent fewer soybeans from the coming harvest than they did at this time last year,"----- same article.

 

 

 

 

sw
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,889
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

Yes, the rains didn't fall in abundance, as expected.

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,006
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

roarntiger,

 

Same article had the new acre projections--------  At some point the world will overproduce, but I think the US ag production is going to slide for a couple of reasons.

The acres keep moving west----------- costly inputs,  technology improvements, manpower, etc. etc. etc.

 

And ------------- The US has become a drive by, fly over, entertainment based, non productive society(with a few-very rare-exceptions) that is not building or ------"working" or even wanting to.  I am afraid agriculture can not remain uneffected.    The society taxes, be they on April 15th or the environmental costs passed on in seed, fuel, equipment, transportation, water and chemical costs will eventually have their tole on production.  You can't live in this neighborhood and not be affected.  

 

 

sw
Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 129
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

SW63535--

 

the grain and soybean farmers have NEVER had it so good.  Quit your whining and get over the fact that teflon romney lost.  Why so much gloom and doom, as you drive to the bank or banks?