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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,154
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 19

[ Edited ]

A source in Paraguay notified me this morning. He wants to weigh in on his neighbors' weather and financial situation. He says:

 

"I have been...as usual...reading Marketeye…it has affectively NOT rained.... and little is on the way.....
 There is another slight problem though that you guys don't take into consideration. Producers are threatening to NOT sell more than their needs. The official dollar in Argentina is 4.85 pesos ...the "blue market" as they call it is 7.73. Farmers get paid at official rate. That means they lose 30 percent. Plus, they pay 35 percent taxes. It means they have more or less net 240 dollars per metric ton. This could become a problem."

 

I hope this helps,

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,047
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

Come on sw ! snap out of this doom , like vandenplas said !!!  heck the future is so bright here I have to wear shades :smileywink:

 

Vandey did bring  up  a good point on the banks , around here every little town had a bank and they have long ago closed-- just sitting there empty , so i have been buying them for a song , just to put my money in ,   lol

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,981
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

I read a little about the problems with the dual rates paid to farmers in Argentina and the taxes on top of the screwing they are receiving.

 

The article said many were going to do exactly as the source in Mike's post said. The Govt down there is now considering a "tax" on stored on farm grains. Agriculture and Govt are the only two businesses down there of significance. The problem is govt is a leach.

 

Now to get just a little political, why all the drones in the heartland of the USA? DES MOINES, Iowa is the latest base. Why all the gun control issues at the same time? What is the best sector of the economy besides being a big time banker? Does anybody have any illusions about what "govt" will do to continue it's self?

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,047
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk February 19

Something you guy's might want to watch for here on the home front is the weather down in the Delta The old boys have got a ton of rain and it looks like the next 2 weeks down there , much the same .

 

Have a good friend in NE - La and he told me 2 weeks ago they were getting ready to start burn down , BUT it's still raining , that ground can dry down quick in his area ,  they start planting around the second week in March ,

 

Alittle planting delay just push's back new crop corn comeing in early .

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 790
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 19

Hobby, with the drones I think they know we are self reliant out here.  They need to keep an eye on us.  

 

One other thing that we should keep in mind with this commodity business is that the world is going to go into a currency war, some sources are saying.  In my opinion the US has down this the past few years.  The idea is that a country can make imports so expensive that they bring jobs back to their country and its working according to some in the US.   They "export" the unemployment.  But if the US Dollar makes a break for the 2011 lows that should help exports?   Right?    In the summer of 2011 it was around 74 versus today of 80.   

 

Long Term I think action like this is bearish commodities. One it will hurt China if they lose a lot of jobs over there.   Not to mention of Brazil jobs on the currency war it could make their corn/bean/wheat really cheap compared to ours.  
I was reading an article yesterday that said that long term currency wars tend to destroy international trade.   Something like this happened in the 1930's.   Then it was only between a handful of countries.   

 

And one more thing I found yesterday is that China and Russia are buying gold like crazy.   Why?  I think they might be trying to start a new world currency.  If Brazil would jump on board with them,  or the black sea region,  it could hurt US commodity prices to say the least.  If they would back a world currency with gold?   How bad would that hurt the US.    Not to mention that China has a million man army now.  Wonder what's that for?    

 

I have no idea if that will happen.   But I have heard rumblings about this for years already.  Some say Saudi Arabia will join them since they claim they aren't making any money due to cheap US Dollar.   

 

And honestly I don't know if you can ready yourself or business for something like this.    At least I haven't figured it out yet.  

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,981
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

HY: Russia is the one that needs to worry about that million man army due to the fact they are in a declining population situation and they share a large long border area with a country that has enough extra people to replace every Russian man in that country. Also China is in a female deficient condition due to the one couple one child policy for the last 30 years. The statistics on this would blow your mind. No long boat ride needed to get there.

 

The currency devaluation thing does NOT help the young, the bottom rung wage earners and the elderly on fixed incomes as it decreases their buying power. The govt's may think it helps themselves by being able to pay back debt's with "watered down" currency. But it is always temporary.

 

I have posted this before but here it is again . Read the first 6 chapters then skip to 42 & 43.

 

http://esocap.com/uploads/files/Dying%20of%20Money.pdf

 

see any parallels? scary huh.

 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
SouthWestOhio
Posts: 519
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 19

And here I thought China's army was over 2 million strong. But to some extent size doesn't matter anymore. The new war theater will be in the internet and he who has the best hackers will win. It looks like China is doing pretty well on that front.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/technology/chinas-army-is-seen-as-tied-to-hacking-against-us.html?...

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,108
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 19

Wow... Corn and Wheat are biting the bullet and Soybeans blew it up...

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk February 19

Gio, or any of you chart guys. Quick question. If u think this corn market is getting oversold and are looking to get long at what price are the charts saying there is some downside support? The 6.75 area? I'm thinking with the worthless USDA outlook this week and what is sure to be crazy high production numbers it may be a good time to find a bottom and buy either some July or sept calls. Any body have some price points to watch below where we are today?
Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,108
Registered: ‎06-25-2010

Re: Floor Talk February 19

[ Edited ]

Maybe some Corn support comes in around 677.6 for some short-term support levels.  Picking tops and bottoms have stung my asterisk.