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marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk February 19

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March corn futures contract ended 4 1/4 cents higher at $4.53. The March soybean futures contract settled 6 3/4 cents lower at $13.54. March wheat futures finished 8 1/4 cents higher at $6.20 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract finished $3.90 per short ton lower at $453.00. The March soyoil futures settled $0.12 lower at $40.24.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.75 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points lower.

 

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says the soybeans are experiencing mostly weather market, plus a tight US supplies market.  
We went up to some previous highs in March today and took it out by 0.25 nd could not do anything with it.  I know US producers are thinking of selling some beans today, and I am sure they are iun Brazil as wll, although my guys are quiet so far.  So I think we are trying to blow off the beans today and a weak close could mean lower prices for the rest of the week.  Yields are good in Brazil and the weather is good for corn and soybeans down there.
 
Wheat and corn are higher, but will no real news attached.  There is some concern about winterkill in wheat as western areas have warmed up and will now cool off again, but the crop still has to come out of dormancy before the big damage an start.  The far western Great Plains remains too dry, but might get a little rain soon from one of these systems.  Corn I think must be demand related.  Not hearing anything but the charts look positive and lets face it, we have sold like 4.5 million tons into the world export markets and that is a lot at any time of the year.  Corn will not go down if this demand can hold together pretty well and I think it will."

 

Mike

------

At mid-session:

The March corn futures contract is trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $4.50. The March soybean futures contract is 6 1/2 cents lower at $13.54. March wheat futures are 6 1/2 cents higher at $6.18 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract is trading $3.90 per short ton lower at $453.00. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.21 lower at $40.15.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.41 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points lower.

 

One floor trader says, "The weather talk is seasonal…like the cubs, every year holds upside possibilities; for price on weather volatility…but the last weather outlooks I saw were perhaps a return of el Nino conditions…dry for SE asia and perhaps continued heat in Australia…but little analog for US…
 
We have done a lot over the winter to re-charge soil moisture…
 
Remember the market had a bearish and short mentality all year in corn and wheat…so the rally has been in large part an unwind of spec shorts… to go higher you now have to ask the market to enter new length… what I see now is world price moving lower on feed grains and U.S. export for corn slowing again… let’s see if that’s corroborated on Friday’s sales report…
 
I sold last of corn length today and I am building shorts in new crop beans  wheat and rice..
 
Old crop beans remains strong…with relatively high basis in Brazil… but expect basis to weaken there as Argentine harvest comes on at end of March…
 
So looking for sideways trade in general…bean inverses are high enough to have as much downside as upside risk..
 
Unrest in Ukraine, the poor business climate in Argentina…and higher energy markets are all upside risks as well as weather… but we are at a moment of stagnant growth  in bio-fuels  and have a record crop in SA in beans….with that i am bearish new crop beans… and a 420-470 corn guy…if you lose 5 million acres say a 90-91 then maybe I can get back to 5.00 corn mid-summer particularly if Brazil 2nd crop and Ukraine corn acreage suffers… that will be determined after the March 31st planting intentions report…. By the way the initial stats last week and the outlook data tomorrow I suspect is too low for the total acreage mix… there was 7 million acres of prevent plant last year.. and the mix for bean corn and wheat in the numbers looked too low.. as if they simply used last years planted as a bench mark… I wouldn’t be surprised if you see a few more acres in the mix in the outlook numbers tomorrow… so I am not buying todays highs," he says
.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures contract is trading 1/4 of a  cent higher at $4.49. The March soybean futures contract is 1/2 of a cent higher at $13.61. March wheat futures are 1 3/4 cents higher at $6.13 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract is trading $1.20 per short ton higher at $458.10. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.16 lower at $40.20.
In the outside markets, the ICE Brent crude oil is $0.47 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 5 points higher.

 

Mike

----------------

At 7:20am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

ICE Brent Crude Oil=$0.47 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Higher.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed-to-lower, Europe stocks lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,129
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

Tell me it is profit-taking in the Beans.  

Advisor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,193
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk February 19

Some elevators are taking the basis down again on corn! Luckily the terminal is 20/t higher
Veteran Contributor
farm-n-hawk
Posts: 93
Registered: ‎05-01-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

[ Edited ]

We have done a lot over the winter to re-charge soil moisture

 

Not everywhere. Maybe in the eastern cornbelt but not so much

here in the western parts.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Floor Talk February 19

This one floor trader obviously doesn't live in the real world.   Is he predicting or projecting?  Oh, never mind.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,153
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 19

Seems about right, I'm in the 0 zone.