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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk February 21

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March futures corn contract settled 9 cents lower at $6.90. The March soybean futures contract finished 5cents higher at $14.87. March wheat futures ended 17cents lower at $7.21 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract closed$0.76 lower at $51.31. The March soymeal futures settled $3.70 per short ton higher at $437.30


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.21 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 46points lower.

 

Mike

-----------------

At mid-day:

The March futures corn contract is trading 6 cents lower at $6.94. The March soybean futures contract is opened 7 cents higher at $14.90 March wheat futures are trading 15 cents lower at $7.23 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.60 lower at $51.47. The March soymeal futures are trading $4.10 per short ton higher at $437.70


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.27 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 69 points lower.

 

One analyst says, "The soybean market is moving based on the demand for soybean meal. "It's very strong!  It is the strength of the market, and also the harvest delays and slower than wanted shipping pace in South America supporting nearby soybeans."  The rest is lower with specs the big sellers today, he says. 
"Farmers still seem to be quiet for the most part.  Part of the selling in response to the outlook conference and the big USDA estimates which was not a big surprise. Lots of talk of risk off selling in my office today," he says.

 

 

Mike

-------------

At the open:

The March futures corn contract opened 6cents lower at $6.94. The March soybean futures contract opened 3 cents higher at $14.86. March wheat futures opened 9 cents lower at $7.29 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract opened $0.37 lower at $51.70. The March soymeal futures are trading $2.10 per short ton higher at $435.70


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.28 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48points lower.

 

Mike

----------

At 9:40am:

 

Agriculture.com's Dan Looker reports from the USDA's Ag Outlook Conference:

 

--Big Acres, Big Price Declines

 

--Are funds starving the poor?

 

More stories in a bit

 

Mike

---------

At 8:30am:

USDA releases record-large 2013 U.S. crop output a Ag Outlook Thursday:

 

Corn=14.53 billion bushels on 96.5 million acres.

 

Soybeans=3.4 billion bushels on 77.5 million.

 

Wheat=2.1 billion bushels on 56.0 million acres.

 

What do you think? And do you think these numbers matter?

 

Mike

--------

At 8:00am:

 

---USDA announces that 130,450 tons of U.S. soybeans were sold to an 'unknown' Thursday.

--110,000 tons of U.S. SRW were sold to an 'unknown' buyer Thursday.

 

Mike

-------

At 6:00am:

--Taiwan buys Argentina corn.

--Kazakhstan grain stocks have dropped 9% on the month and are down 34% on the year. All due to drought.

--A big "thank you" to all of you folks that took time to answer the three marketing conference questions. We had a great response. Your help is much appreciated. I knew I coud rely on all of you to offer up your thoughts. Thanks.

--Have you seen this...............Ups and Downs of Brazil's 2013 Harvest.

 

Mike

--------

At 5:40am: 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans  4-6 cents lower, and wheat 5-7 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$1.35per barrel lower
Dollar=Higher. 
Wall Street=Seen opening lower with more quarterly earnings reports expected and a slew of economic reports: Inflation, Joblesss Claims, Existing home sales, and the Fed Reserve's monthly business outlook survey.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower and Europe's stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 21

[ Edited ]

Note: Due to the President's Day Holiday (or some believe it's actually a recognized day for George Washington's birthday and not President's Day. But, I digress), the USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report will be released Friday vs. today. Also, be watchful of the USDA's Ag Outlook estimates, starting today. They are expected to be negative for the farm markets. We have coverage of the conference by Dan Looker, Senior Business Editor.

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,124
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 21

Mike,
When are we going to receive the results of your survey?
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 21

Good question. That is another department.  They will tally everything. But, I will pass along the results. You betcha.

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 21

A strike is looming at Brazil's seaports. The dockworkers are sure to strike, beginning tomorrow morning. I'm being told it could last awhile. Here is a look at ships lined up at Paranagua's port:

 

Ships at Paranagua.jpg

 

Should be interesting to see the wherewithal of the port workers, this year.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011

Re: Floor Talk February 21

Good morning Mike.  What do I think about the Outlook numbers for corn? Well I'll try to be nice with this being a family friendly site and all.  Using their numbers and a very generous 92% harvested number tells me they are thinking 163.7 or so with yield.  A serious stretch on a year where the drought monitor looked good, but a fantasy this year IMO.  We've never raised over 13.1 bbu ever and have only had 160+ yield 2 years in history, 09 and 04, which was on 79.5 and 73.6 mil harvested acres respectively.  163.7 on 88.78 mil harvested acres?  It would have been respectable yet still high if they had even set the bar at 155 yield or so but once again we get to the outlook forum and it's like a broken record every year.  Gets a little old and why in my opinion it is USELESS. I'd bet a lot of money 163.7 is the largest number we see this year. 

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 21

96.5 million acres is a little on the low side isn't???  I think that might be bullish with the lack of good long term weather forecast. 

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,128
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 21

Long range weather forecasts are something that are a complete waste of time. There is actually 0 good that can come of them other than BS & coffee shop talk. I've got my forecasts you've got yours and they are both just like the weather service predictions. Guesses, maybe theirs is a little more educated, but they are still guesses. Market movers is all they are good for.
Senior Contributor
SouthWestOhio
Posts: 519
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 21

Why can't the port management in Brazil figure out how to negotiate worker contracts without causing a harvest strike every year?
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 21

SouthWestOhio,

 

I'm trying to find out more about this. You raise a great question.

 

Mike