02-22-2013 11:18 AM
Marketeye I have to say it depends on the crop year this year it didn't pay to store either. Last year both payed about the same % increase from the winter lows. I remember back in the LDP years it payed more to store beans than corn. Plus you need more bins to store a corn crop compared to beans, but beans seem to shrink more than corn,
02-22-2013 11:29 AM
that table is quite revealing!
US needs a 146 yield to maintain minimum pipeline for 13-14 mktg year....so how does it go now?...is that LIKE THE FINE PRINT OF A DISCLAIMER?
WE'RE PROFESSING A 160+ YIELD - SO WE'LL AGAIN BE AWASH IN CORN. All is fine - go back to your homes, there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT. THE USDA HAS IT ALL UNDER CONTROL.
but if it's below 145, oh sheet!!!
02-22-2013 11:39 AM
C-X-1, yes, the drought continues and in a normal year, Iowa gets around a 170 to 180bu state-wide average yield. If the water doesn't come in 2013 and given zero ground moisture, pencil Iowa in for a 110bu yield in 2013, down from 141bu in 2012.
02-22-2013 11:51 AM
Similar thoughts here!
And, read thru USDA outlook comments which present a rather rosy picture supply-wise. A little blurb at the end on the Agweb article -- "The big variable in Glauber’s forecast is the weather. While the percentage of the country in drought condition has declined 5.4% since January, 56% of the land mass remains in drought conditions." While timely rainfall could happen for 2013 crops, that 5.4% decline in the drought area doesn't look very promising at this point, especially when one looks at last year's outlook projections compared to the outcome.
"My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government." - Thomas Jefferson
"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." - Abraham Lincoln
02-22-2013 12:10 PM
It's not the fact that the USDA puts out these types of numbers that makes any difference.......it's the fact that the traders believe and trade these numbers that matter.
02-22-2013 12:17 PM
LMAO! And Monday Morning the Chinese will cancel 410,000 tons, anything said to be sold to the Chinese should be placed in a suspense account and stored there and not mentioned until the cash is in hand. Nice to see beans run up than drop when it was announced that Brazil suspended its strike. LMAO! I mean . . . this information is coming from Larry, Moe, and Curley at USDA. John
02-22-2013 12:29 PM
There is more than just one reason to store beans.
1) they store very easily, the high oil content makes them relatively stable
They stableize at about 8.5% without much or any bug pressure.
2) income tax issues
3) less space per dollar of value.
4) part of #3 make them an easier way to generate $ in a short, few load deal
02-22-2013 12:33 PM
i'll agree with you roarin', to some degree. we all have to know the #'s being published. Traders use them to help prey on fear or greed for opportunities.....not that they necessarily believe them.