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Senior Contributor
NDf
Posts: 329
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

Marketeye I have to say it depends on the crop year this year it didn't pay to store either.  Last year both payed about the same % increase from the winter lows. I remember back in the LDP years it payed more to store beans than corn. Plus you need more bins to store a corn crop compared to beans, but beans seem to shrink more than corn,

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,217
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

WCMO,

that table is quite revealing!

US needs a 146 yield to maintain minimum pipeline for 13-14 mktg year....so how does it go now?...is that LIKE THE FINE PRINT OF A DISCLAIMER?

 

WE'RE PROFESSING A 160+ YIELD - SO WE'LL AGAIN BE AWASH IN CORN. All is fine - go back to your homes, there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT. THE USDA HAS IT ALL UNDER CONTROL.

but if it's below 145, oh sheet!!!

Senior Contributor
rswfarms
Posts: 1,377
Registered: ‎12-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

C-X-1, yes, the drought continues and in a normal year, Iowa gets around a 170 to 180bu state-wide average yield. If the water doesn't come in 2013 and given zero ground moisture, pencil Iowa in for a 110bu yield in 2013, down from 141bu in 2012.

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,217
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

rsw,

that means the rest of the states would have to yield a lot higher than 145 for US to maintain minimum?

Advisor
WCMO
Posts: 480
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

Similar thoughts here! 

 

And, read thru USDA outlook comments which present a rather rosy picture supply-wise.  A little blurb at the end on the Agweb article -- "The big variable in Glauber’s forecast is the weather. While the percentage of the country in drought condition has declined 5.4% since January, 56% of the land mass remains in drought conditions."  While timely rainfall could happen for 2013 crops, that 5.4% decline in the drought area doesn't look very promising at this point, especially when one looks at last year's outlook projections compared to the outcome.

____________________________________

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Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,572
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

It's not the fact that the USDA puts out these types of numbers that makes any difference.......it's the fact that the traders believe and trade these numbers that matter.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
Faust100F
Posts: 831
Registered: ‎11-09-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

LMAO!  And Monday Morning the Chinese will cancel 410,000 tons, anything said to be sold to the Chinese should be placed in a suspense account and stored there and not mentioned until the cash is in hand.  Nice to see beans run up than drop when it was   announced that Brazil suspended its strike. LMAO!  I mean . . . this information is coming from Larry, Moe, and Curley at USDA. John

 

 

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,961
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

There is more than just one reason to store beans.

 

1) they store very easily, the high oil content makes them relatively stable

     They stableize at about 8.5% without much or any bug pressure.

 

2) income tax issues

 

3) less space per dollar of value.

 

4) part of #3 make them an easier way to generate $ in a short, few load deal

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,217
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

i'll agree with you roarin', to some degree.  we all have to know the #'s being published. Traders use them to help prey on fear or greed for opportunities.....not that they necessarily believe them.

c-x-1

Senior Contributor
rswfarms
Posts: 1,377
Registered: ‎12-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk February 22

Yes, C-X-1. If the drought continues, Iowa will lose at least 1 BILLION of corn production off a normal trendline yield for Iowa in 2013.