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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,050
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk February 22

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March corn futures finished 8 3/4 cents higher at $6.38 1/4. The March soybean contract finishes 1 1/2 cents higher at $12.72 1/4. The March wheat futures settled 11 1/2 cents higher at $6.44 1/2.  The March soymeal futures closed $1.10 per short ton higher at $331.30. The March soyoil futures finished $0.16 higher at $54.22.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 21 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futures trade 3 cents higher at $6.32 1/2. The March soybean contract is trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $12.66 1/2. The March wheat futures are trading 3 3/4 cents higher at $6.36 3/4.  The March soymeal futures are trading $1.50 per short ton lower at $328.70. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.07 lower at $53.99.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.36 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 41 points.

 

Mike

------

At 10:15am:

 

Corn has turned slightly higher. Soybeans and wheat remain lower. A floor trader that sees the market through a technical lense says, "The market is trying to find direction, as the corn trendline price was $6.31 yesterday in the May. It managed to close slightly above trendline. There is a trendline above $6.49 and if we were to close above that today it would be bullish. We could be back up to previous Jan 3rd high of $6.72 1/2 . But, the market has been ranging between $6.50 and $6.29 and looking for breakout back to $6.00 or $6.72. Market is in a triangle pattern but breakout will occur."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures trade 3/4 of a cent lower at $6.28 3/4. The March soybean contract is trading 2 1/2 cents lower at $12.68. The March wheat futures are trading 1 cent lower at $6.32.  The March soymeal futures are trading unchanged per short ton at $330.20. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.15 lower at $54.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.06 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 7 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:10am:

USDA announces Wednesday that China bought 175,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.

 

 

Mike

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At 7:15am:

--Japan buys 1.8 mmt of U.S. feed-grade corn for April-June delivery, according to the Dow Jones Newswire. The business comes as a result of Ukraine halting shipments due to cold weather.

--Japan seeks 300,000 mt of U.S. feed wheat.

--Taiwan buys 58,000 mt of Brazilian soybeans.

 

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 6-8 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.44 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower ahead of U.S. January existing housing sales data. Still worries about Greece, despite a second bailout package approved.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, Europe's stocks are lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,050
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

The talk is that the USDA Ag Outlook Forum, starting tomorrow, has this market spooked. Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean production number keeps being lowered by numerous private estimates. However, Brazil's corn output is seen to be a near record in 2012. Weather-wise, less rain is seen for southern Brazil and Paraguay for the next few days. Argentina is seen as dry for the next week, but a wet pattern returns.

 

Technically speaking, if the corn market hits $6.21 that could signal a try for the $6.15 level. The trade seems to be confused as to whether the bulls or the bears are running the show right now.

 

What say you? Are the bulls or bears wearing the Sheriff's badge in this town?

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
rusureofit
Posts: 64
Registered: ‎05-15-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

The battle between the bulls and bears is in full swing and has been for some time now, however each side is holding his ground and neither is able to overtake the other.  In the end mother nature will determine who wins.  In the meantime each side will advance or retreat depending on the scouts warnings (analysts predictions or rumors)

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,050
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

rusureofit,

 

Are you positioned well on both sides? Or, are you rooting for the bulls to stampede?

 

How's your risk management plan looking, heading into planting season?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
rusureofit
Posts: 64
Registered: ‎05-15-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

rooting for the bulls, but insuring against the bears.  Sold some old crop corn last week but have more to sell yet, beans are gone.  Why would you lock in next years crop when you don't know the insurance level yet? 

Veteran Contributor
docharing
Posts: 135
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

Mike,

What about the battle for acres? I have 100 acres that could go either corn or beans, I am thinking beans. To get 94 million acres of corn we need more incentive!

Senior Contributor
GoredHusker
Posts: 1,709
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

We're far enough into the month of February to be able within a nickel of knowing the insurance price.  It's going to be around $5.70. 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,050
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

And, is that going to be enough, not enough, never enough, or workable?

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
docharing
Posts: 135
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

Not enough, need  $6.00

 

Senior Contributor
GoredHusker
Posts: 1,709
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

I can't answer for all, but I can tell you that it will be the second highest price in history.  Assuming soybeans come in around $12.50 and corn around $5.70, guys around here will go fencerow to fencerow corn.  Local harvest basis is pegged at 30 under for corn and a buck under for beans.  We always figure 200 bushel corn is equivalent to 60 bushel beans.  $5.40 times 200 bushels equals 1080 gross per acre with corn while 11.50 times 60 only grosses 690 on beans.  There's absolutely no way we can get an extra 390 bucks an acre into corn.  From reading publications from both universities in Iowa and Illinois, it appears they can't either as both pegged between 90 cents and a buck profit a bushel on corn to 60-70 cents a bushel profit on beans.  From a profitability standpoint, corn is an absolute no brainer.  I'd definitely be in the camp that it's a very workable situation.