02-23-2012 06:55 AM - edited 02-23-2012 03:44 PM
The May corn futures settled 1 1/4 cents higher at $6.42 1/2. The March soybean contract ended 4 3/4 cents higher at $12.83 1/2. The March wheat futures closed 4 3/4 cents lower at $6.41. The March soymeal futures finished $1.50 per short ton higher at $335.30. The March soyoil futures settled $0.02 lower at $54.59.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 46 points.
One analyst says the market traded higher because the USDA Ag Outlook numbers were not as bearish as first thought. He says, "The common thinking is the government always starts high on estimates and demand continues strong as importers make up for south American losses which are locked in as the growing season winds down."
The May corn futures trade 3/4 of a cent higher at $6.42. The March soybean contract is trading 6 3/4 cents higher at $12.85. The March wheat futures are trading 6 3/3 cents lower at $6.39. The March soymeal futures are trading $2.70 per short ton higher at $336.50. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.60 lower at $54.55.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.15 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 46 points.
The International Grains Council is raising the 2011-12 world corn output to 863.8 mmt. The IGC sees the world growing 167 million acres of corn in 2011-12. The increase in acreage comes at the expense of lower wheat acres.
At the open:
The March corn futures trade 3 cents higher at $6.41. The March soybean contract is trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $12.72. The March wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $6.44 1/4. The March soymeal futures are trading $0.30 per short ton higher at $331.60. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.20 lower at $54.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 16 points.
Reaction: One floor trader says, "This morning's USDA Ag Outlook numbers look a bit bearish but nothing scares me too much in there."
USDA announces Thursday that China bought 120,000 mt of U.S. corn for 2011-12 delivery. Also, an 'unknown' buyer purchased 110,744 mt of U.S. corn for 2011-12 delivery.
USDA Ag Outlook U.S. 2012 Acreage Estimates:
What do you think? Too high, too low, right on?
Meanwhile, other Ag Outlook Estimates:
--Average 2012-13 corn price is pegged at $5.00 per bushel.
--Avg. 2012-13 soybean price is estimated at $11.50 per bushel.
--Avg. 2012-13 wheat price is estimated at $6.30.
--Fiscal year 2012 U.S. ag exports are expected to be the 2nd highest on record.
--Corn use for ethanol is seen dropping by 4.95 billion bushels.
--Corn stocks are seen rising due to a drop in overall ethanol production.
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.12 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher as reports show German business confidence rising and Greek debt deal concerns falling.
More in a minute,
02-23-2012 08:06 AM
The demand for fertilizer is expected to drop this year, according to this Dow Jones Newswire story.
If we are going to plant the most corn since 1944, how do you use less fertilizer? Hmmm....
02-23-2012 08:29 AM - edited 02-23-2012 08:32 AM
Mike..... Don't think the this China business has been dialed in was it?....... Or is this considered routine?......p-oed
PS..... You have 4.95 Bil bu reduction posted below for ethanol corn use reduction.......?
02-23-2012 08:31 AM
Floor traders say the U.S. is becoming really competitive on the world export market. The floor is not surprised, but these sales have not been dialed in. They will be digested quickly, today.
02-23-2012 08:55 AM
Mike my question and a question of many farmers is, since when has this market bought 95 million acres of corn? I talked to our local elevators marketing guy last week and he pointed to the large stack of new crop soybean contracts on his desk, when I asked how many new crop corn contracts he had received his answer was little to none. $12 buys a lot of soybeans in my area. Corn on corn is risky here so most will stick to a rotation with these current prices and I would imagine farmers outside the heart of the cornbelt see it the same way. Maybe its because the corn market just seems sluggish and a little boring compared to beans lately.
02-23-2012 10:33 AM
Better yet. I had a USDA/NASS guy agree that it's nearly impossible to even plant that much corn. We did it in 1944, but only because soybeans were not used as a crop rotating factor. So, I don't know. It seems unlikely.