Ag Talk | Agriculture.com
Reply
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,901
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk February 26

[ Edited ]

At mid-session:

The March futures corn contract is trading 11 cents higher at $7.04. The March soybean futures contract is trading 3 cents lower at $14.47. March wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $7.03 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.67 lower at $49.40. The March soymeal futures are trading $0.80 per short ton higher at $426.40


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.68per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 90 points higher.

 

Mike

-----------

At the open:

The March futures corn contract opened 7 cents higher at $7.00. The March soybean futures contract opened 4 cents higher at $14.55. March wheat futures opened 1 cents higher at $7.00 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract opened $0.45 lower at $49.66. The March soymeal futures are trading $1.80 per short ton higher at $427.60


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 84 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

At 8am:

No fresh export sales reported this mornin.

--Russia sells 62,215 tons of Intervention Grain.

 

Something to watch: Intervention grain sales. What are you watching? I'd be interested to discuss what is it that you are watching? Is it any of these:

 

--Italy's election

--U.S. Dollar

--Bernanke speak

--South America port strikes

--Your charts

--February's average corn/soybean Dec./Nov prices respectively.

--Your local basis

--Your dog playing in the snow in the backyard

--The VIX

--Drought Monitor

--TV

 

Just to name a few. maybe you have more to add. What are you watching?

 

Mike

-------

At 7:50am:

Jeff Coleman, CME Group pit trader and analyst for the Trean Group, looks ahead at today's trade. He mentions some similar things talked about in the Floor Talk open. But, it's much more credible coming from him. :smileyhappy:

 

"Beans just can’t seem to catch a bid. Commodities worldwide were mostly lower with gold, in the middle of a five month down cycle, managing a slight rally even as Goldman Sachs lowered their price target by over $200 per ounce for the next three months. Today could be a very active day for both commodities and equities as the S&P Case-Shiller HPI(Home Price Index), new home sales and consumer confidence figures are all released at 9:00 AM ET.  Add to that the testimony of fed president Ben Bernanke to the senate banking committee also at 9:00 AM ET and we could be in for quite a ride. Bernanke concludes his testimony tomorrow along with the release of durable goods at 8:30 AM ET and pending home sales figures at 10:00 AM ET," he says.

 

Mike

----------

 

Beans just can’t seem to catch a bid. Commodities worldwide were mostly lower with gold, in the middle of a five month down cycle, managing a slight rally even as Goldman Sachs lowered their price target by over $200 per ounce for the next three months. Today could be a very active day for both commodities and equities as the S&P Case-Shiller HPI(Home Price Index), new home sales and consumer confidence figures are all released at 9:00 AM ET.  Add to that the testimony of fed president Ben Bernanke to the senate banking committee also at 9:00 AM ET and we could be in for quite a ride. Bernanke concludes his testimony tomorrow along with the release of durable goods at 8:30 AM ET and pending home sales figures at 10:00 AM ET.

 

Mike

----------

At 7:00am: 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents lower, and wheat 1 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lmostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.81per barrel lower
Dollar=Lower. 
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, after Italy spooked the world market. Also, U.S. traders are focused on an upcoming speech by Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Tuesday.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower and Europe's stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,901
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 26

A quick look at yesterday's grain markets offered up by Jeff Colmean, CME Group pit trader and member of the Trean Group:

 

"After a slow overnight session in which soybeans were slightly higher with wheat lower and corn unchanged, the grain complex took somewhat of a beating during the day session. Soybeans could not sustain the “dead cat” bounce from Friday’s down day and gave it up midway through the day session. We’ve seen a key reversal from the 1500 mark and the floor still hasn’t been found. There just seems to be nothing to hold up the beans and let’s not forget that when South America gets the shipping logistics worked out there are 11 million tons of beans waiting to be shipped. Beans did rebound somewhat at the end of the day to close at 1335.25 (-8.5). Wheat slid 13.5 cents to close at 705.25. The second snowstorm in less than a week across the growing region has eased drought and soil moisture concerns for U.S. wheat. Corn did little but did hold up well compared to beans and wheat. The WH/CH spread is all the way in to almost 5 cents which is historically low levels."

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,327
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk February 26

Started snowing here about 2 hrs ago and now have about 1 inch of the stuff.

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,434
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk February 26

[ Edited ]

Ok, so there is 11 millions tons of soybeans ready to be shipped........how much of that is already sold?   If it's already all sold, this hardly seems bearish to me.  It looks like the demand for beans is extremely strong.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 1,752
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk February 26

What I'm watching is IF China turns lose of 2 to 2.5 beans from reserves to bridge the gap till they can receive beans from S.A.

Veteran Contributor
Pat in CMO
Posts: 129
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 26

 Hobby, started snowing last night about 10:00. I would guess we have 12 in or more of heavy wet snow and still falling. Best precip event here in Central MO for quite some time. Last weeh we had about 10 in. but it was much drier snow.  Patrick

Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,327
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk February 26

[ Edited ]

3 to 4 inches now and still coming down. we weren't supposed to get more than a dusting.

Wish this was out in NW Kansas where it would do some good. Kind of a waste here, except it will add to river levels later.

 

Our runoff water here goes to the Missiouri River in The middle of the state of Missiouri.

 

ME, I'm watching moisture levels out in NW Kansas to see if I have to plant a crop or just summer fallow the whole thing.

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,327
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk February 26

Taiwan Flour Millers tendered to purchase 93,680 tons of U.S. milling wheat this
morning, with shipment sought for April-May.

Russia’s Ag Minister is now
saying the tariff-free import period could extend out another month if needed,
to Aug 1, though the move remains in the planning stages anyway; Russian traders
think U.S. or E.U. stocks could be more attractive into the summer months.
Meanwhile, the country’s grain union reported 12.6% of winter grain planted area
(2 million hectares) destroyed by bad weather and likely to be reseeded,
compared to an 8% 5-YA (and 12% last season).

The Rosario Grains Exchange
cut their 2012-13 Argentine crop forecasts yesterday due to recent drought, with
corn down a million tons on the month to 25.5 million tons, and beans down a
sharp 5 million tons to 48.0 million tons.

Private consultants AgRural
dropped their 2012-13 Brazilian soy estimate by a million tons, to 81.2 million
tons, due to recent dryness in Bahia (though the state only accounts for 5% of
national bean production).

Celeres reported the Brazilian soy harvest at
28% done as of Friday (2/22), up nine points on the week but a point below the
comparable date last year. No. 1 state Mato Grosso stands at 45%, up from 29%
last week but behind 51% last year. Forward sales of the national crop rose 1%
to 60% sold, versus 57% last year.

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,901
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 26

Pre-USDA March Report Estimates are being released already. Here are the estimates from Alpari LLC:


U.S. CARRYOVERS


Corn = 632
Soybeans= 123
Wheat  = 695
WORLD CARRYOVERS


Corn = 118.50
Soybeans = 60.20
Wheat= 177.00
     South America Crop Production

ARGENTINA
Corn =26.5
Soybeans= 52.0
BRAZIL
Corn = 72.8
Soybeans= 84.0

 

 

What do you think? Are these Brazil and Argentina numbers too high, or right on?

 

Thanks Tim Hannagan,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,434
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk February 26

According to Hobby's post those SA numbers are too high.....comparing them to what USDA would like folks to believe, they are too low.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"