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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,127
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk February 27

[ Edited ]

BEANS ARE IN THE TEENS!!!!

 

Video: Grain Market Summary for Monday, February 27, 2012.

 

Mike

------

At the close:

The May corn futures settled 4 1/2 cents higher at $6.48 1/2. The May soybean contract closed 15 3/4 cents higher at $13.02 1/2. The May wheat futures closed 11 1/2 cents higher at $6.52 3/4. The May soymeal futures closed $7.40 per short ton higher at $343.60. The May soyoil futures settled $0.21 higher at $54.86.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.15 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 35 points.

 

Mike

-------

At mid-session:

The May corn futures trade 2 1/4 cents higher at $6.46 1/2. The May soybean contract is trading 8 1/2 cents higher at $12.95 1/4. The May wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $6.46 1/4.  The May soymeal futures are trading $4.30 per short ton higher at $340.50. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.08 lower at $54.57.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.73 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 17 points.

 

As we mentioned earlier this morning, the fresh, lower Brazilian soybean production estimates are moving the market today. After a January estimate of 70.2 million metric tons, AgRural Commodities has lowered that to 68.0 mmt. It looks like a small crop is getting smaller. As of the weekend, the Brazilian farmers have harvested 28% of their soybean crop, nearly half as much as this same time a year ago.

 

Mike

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At 10:30am:

After starting lower, the corn and soybean markets have turned higher.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The May corn futures trade 5 cents lower at $6.39 1/2. The May soybean contract is trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $12.867 1/2. The May wheat futures are trading 2 cents lower at $6.39 1/2.  The May soymeal futures are trading $1.80 per short ton higher at $338.00. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.29 lower at $54.54.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.04 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 47 points.

 

Mike

-----------

At 8:10am:

U.S. farmers are flush with cash. That's the message from a Dow Jones Newswire story Monday. The story says that farmers hold 64% of the nation's corn crop in storage. Do you think it's that high?

 

Meanwhile, there is a lot of talk about the outside markets controlling the grains and soybeans this week. So far, it ain't looking good. Euro officials can't decide on whether they have enough evidence to support a newly proposed Greek bailout. Here we go again..........

 

Mike

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At 7:15am:

The International Grains Council Monday has dropped its global soybean output estimate by 4%, according to the Dow Jones Newswire. The story mentions that although Oct.-Dec. soybean exports to China, out of South America, were strong, they will slow due to the lower output in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. And, with demand strong, the U.S. will be looked upon to fill  the export sales, in the months to come. What say you?

 

The market should be asking for soybean acres soon, huh?

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 4-6 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$1.28 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower.

World Markets=Lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,127
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 27

Tom White, FuturesRoad.net analyst and CME Group floor corn pit trader says that technically little has changed from last week.  "The market still trades within the parameters of a triangle and volatility indicators become tighter.  While RSI does appear to be basing a bit higher, the market has been flat.  We don’t have anything definitive to add at this point but think that volatility should soon pick up."

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,568
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 27

USDA has gotten what they want.... The corn price has been very stable for the last couple of months. Their reports, right or wrong  have flattened out this corn market...........................................for now.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,127
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 27

roarintiger1,

 

What's your best guess for this week's avg. February corn and soybean prices that will determine the crop insurance rates?

 

Any thoughts, anyone? Will it be high enough? Or, has this month's trading been too flat?

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 27

Mike.... The US farmer did have 64% of the corn crop as of Dec 1......We do not have that much today........ Also.....What that report does not tell is how much of that corn has already been committed to someone?.........

 

At the end of the day......... How much will the US farmer have come sept 1st?........... p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Advisor
Red Steele
Posts: 4,423
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 27

my bet is that we will be able to contract new crop corn and soybeans for more than the insurance guarantee. Which sets up some nice dynamics.

"Peace on earth would mean the end of civilization as we know it" Joseph Heller
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,568
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 27

Mike,  I'm no expert by any stretch of my imagination,  but I don't think that the corn number for insurance purposes will increase the corn acres by 1 acre. Having said that, I believe that farmers "had" their minds made up long before this price discovery.  Please notice that I said "had".  I'm pretty sure that a percentage of those acres will be switched to soybeans. (Based on SA's declining bean supply and by simple economics of putting a crop in the ground.)

 

I do like the idea of being able to contract above the insurance numbers. I think that there is a huge amount of possible 2012 production to price yet.

 

As far as corn left to sell, I don't believe for one minute that farmers are holding as large a number of bushels of corn that the "experts" say are out there.  

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,531
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 27

Mike,

The WSJ version of this story had another stated fact that I think is false.  The writer made the claim that on farm storage was enough to hold all the corn produced in last year.  "USDA projects farmers have 12.8 billion bu. of storage."  

 

It was a hit piece, giving farmer greed as the blame for the corn shortage.  Whatever the political purpose of these similar articles, Grain farmers got a black eye-----again.  And I question, again, the purpose and accuracy or USDA data, and the way it is used.

 

 

sw
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,954
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 27

My take is they believe the  baloney #s on production last year and

1) have no clue as to bu's sold but not delievered &

 

2) have to believe the farmer has it, as it is no where else ,so the farmers have it...

 

Mother nature did not

cooperate on production last year and it is not there east of the Missiouri river. Only in the Western Corn
Belt is there any significant bu's in piles under tarps.

 

I am also of the opinion that less than 50% and probably closer to 25% of farmers are in any kind of financial condition to control thier own destiny. The rest are one bad year away from "Wal-Mart greeters school".

 

 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,531
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 27

Finish says maybe the trade doubts usda's alibi.
sw