02-29-2012 05:54 AM - edited 02-29-2012 02:00 PM
At the close:
The May corn futures settled 3/4 of a cent higher at $6.58. The May soybean contract closed 7 1/2 cents higher at $13.20. The May wheat futures closed 1/4 of a cent lower at $6.68. The May soymeal futures finished $3.60 per short ton higher at $352.90. The May soyoil futures ended $0.33 lower at $54.47.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.48 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 10 points.
All ag commodities have turned higher. Beware of a possible sell-off, on the close. In a bigger picture, the stock market has been rallying since September on better economic signals. This morning, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says he is getting mixed signals on an economic recovery and "down she goes".
The May corn futures trade 2 cents lower at $6.55 1/4. The May soybean contract is trading 6 cents higher at $13.18 1/2. The May wheat futures are trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $7.04 3/4. The May soymeal futures are trading $2.40 per short ton higher at $351.70. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.23 lower at $54.57.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.10 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 34 points.
One analyst says, "Soybeans are supported by the Chinese buying, after reports of negative crush margins there. So, a bit of a surprise," Scoville says. Soybeans want to run higher even though people are looking for a little top in through here. Specs are buying but mostly there is just nothing for sale."
Note that the grains are having trouble coming along for the ride, proving this is mostly a soy rally, so China is the key.
"Otherwise people listening to what Bernanke has to say and worried about inflation or not."
The market acts like it can't find any direction. The best guesses of a sinking market from profit-taking may be the story at the end of the day. Meanwhile, I'm hearing farmer-selling is pressuring the market. Are you selling? I talked to a farmer this morning that says he is getting a soybean quote that he almost can't pass up. He is talking about new-crop beans. What are the cash prices in your neck of the woods? I would be interested to see the ranges from different spots in the country. Thanks for sharing.
At the open:
The May corn futures trade 2 1/2 cents higher at $6.59 3/4. The May soybean contract is trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $13.12. The May wheat futures are trading 2 3/4 cents higher at $6.71. The May soymeal futures are trading $0.20 per short ton lower at $349.20. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.10 lower at $54.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel highwr, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 9 points.
--USDA announces Wednesday that China bought 175,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2011-12 delivery.
--USDA announces Wednesday that China bought 110,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.
--USDA announces that Mexico buys 120,000 mt of optional origin corn for 2012-13 delivery.
A South Korea buyer is seeking up to 420,000 mt of corn, with three of the six cargoes of U.S. origin.
--Japan seeks 320,000 mt of feed barley, wheat Wednesday.
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.23 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher ahead of numerous economic reports Wednesday.
More in a minute,
02-29-2012 06:45 AM
Mike, Do you have the markets' resistance and support numbers? It would be interesting to see if we can break through any of these. I have to think that the nearby corn resistance is 6.66 but I'm not quite sure.
02-29-2012 08:08 AM
I'm new to the forum, however, I'm a grain merchant advisor in Arkansas. I just began my position in January, but seem to me these soybean prices have to break sometime and in a hard way. I've heard estimates as low as $10.20/bu. Then again I hear we may see $14+ in the 3rd and 4th quarters of this year.
02-29-2012 08:28 AM
With the high price of gasoline, when are we going to go to 15% blend with ethanol? I understand the feds(EPA) have approved the E15 gas for 2001 and newer vehicles. What is the holdup? If we start using E15 what will that do to the price of corn?
02-29-2012 08:31 AM
First off, let me welcome you to the forum. We always like to see new folks. I'll dig around and try to get some perspective into your questions. I am hearing the bulls are running the bean pit. There are a lot of bullish nuggets out there. Simply put, I think the market is asking for more soybean acres.
02-29-2012 10:09 AM
I think part of the holdup is the lack of pumps set for 15%. I don't know what it would take to move them from 10% to 15%. I have heard that to put in a pump that is flexible and can run from 10% to 85% is expesive. I don't konw. I have a feeling that if there was a big push to move pumps to 15%, we'd get a backlash in this electio year. There are a world of people who loath ethanol unbelievably but who are working with 10%. To move them to 15% would awaken the dragon because they perceive that some of their equipment won't run on it.
I have a small airplane tha tis cleared to run on 10% (most are not) but not higher. I don't have a choice in this issue because of FAA rules. A move to 15% would mean I bought no ethanol at all for my airplane. That's a small segment but illustrative of the niches and factions that can be awakened. it's incredible how much some people hate ethanol and it is a political issue.
02-29-2012 11:12 AM
Here are the local spot prices from South Western Ontario
The $ is near par so a close comparisson to US$
Corn OC $244.67/tonne or $6.21 for 56 lbs
NC $199.4/ tonne or $5.06 for 56lbs
Soys OC $462.42/ tonne or $ 12.58 for 60 lbs
NC $447.54/ tonne or $12.18 for 60 lbs
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.