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02-06-2012 06:48 AM - edited 02-06-2012 03:53 PM
VIDEO: Grain Market Summary
At the close:
The March corn futures closed 1/4 of a cent lower at $6.44 1/2. The March soybean contract settled 1/2 of a cent higher at $12.33. The March wheat futures settled 7 3/4 cents higher at $6.68 1/2. The March soymeal futures settled $1.10 per short ton lower at $327.50. The March soyoil futures settled $0.51 higher at $52.16.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.75 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 29 points.
ADM is closing a 30 million gallon capacity ethanol plant in North Dakota, according to a Dow Jones Newswire story Monday. What do you think, is this any indication the ethanol industry is weakening. Location is being given as the reason for the closing. I do hear U.S. ethanol exports have slowed, but the industry appears to remain strong. Hmmmm.....
At mid-session, the March corn futures trade 3 1/2 cents lower at $6.41. The March soybean contract is trading 7 cents higher at $12.39 1/2. The March wheat futures are trading 5 1/2 cents higher at $6.66. The March soymeal futures are trading $4.00 per short ton higher at $329.00. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.62 higher at $52.27.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.57 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 38 points.
One analyst says, "The soybean market is up for chart-based reasons, as much as anything else. "Soybeans broke resistance on Friday and seem to want to follow through," he says. Cash markets are holding firm too, as they are for corn, but corn seems to be seeing a little speculative-selling."
The market may be anticipating more South American soybean loss, pushing up beans. But, the South American corn crop damage may already be built into the market, he says.
For wheat the market is considering still cold conditions in the EU. "Plus, some traders may be looking at floods in Australia for reasons to buy," he says.
Cash markets are strong, mostly on no farmer-selling, and not much demand showing to start the week.
Overall, it could be a choppy week, until the reports Thursday, with markets holding pretty well on ideas of less world production, but not able to move much higher due to demand ideas," he says.
At the open:
At the open, the March corn futures trade unchanged at $6.44 1/2. The March soybean contract opened 3 1/2 cents higher at $12.36. The March wheat futures opened 1 cent higher at $6.61 1/2. The March soymeal futures opened $0.20 per short ton lower at $326.60. The March soyoil futures opened $0.21 higher at $51.86.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.47 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 44 points.
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 2-3 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.87 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower as investors worry about Greece missing an upcoming deadline on bond repayment. The deadline is in late March.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks trade higher. Europe stocks are lower.
More in a minute,
02-06-2012 07:34 AM - edited 02-06-2012 08:12 AM
--China's January soybean imports are estimated at 4.86 million metric tons, as February's are seen at 3.7 mmt.
--Wheat in Australia has been damaged, over the weekend, due to floods.
--This is report week. Thursday's Report will update Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand numbers.
--Interesting to note that a bag of Brazilian soybeans is selling for about $27 a sack vs. about $31 a year ago.
--Argentina's weekly crop condition report rates that country's corn only 35% good/excellent, the lowest this year. Argentina's soybean crop is rated as 64% good/excellent, up 8% and the highest yet this year.
02-06-2012 09:06 AM
In USDA's report, will they be changing the crop production from last year? I thought the January report was the final tally for 2011.
As far as the supply & demand, I would watch out for that elusive 300 million bushel number.
Interesting to note that the Market to Market guys were agreeing with the USDA in saying that farmers are holding a very large amount of corn. I'm not sure that everyone should believe that.
02-06-2012 09:46 AM
Seems to me that the USDA had on farm stocks at around + or - 2% from last years on farm stocks?..... Question is how much of that is already spoken for?...... I know that the commercial interest would like for you to believe that there is a "WALL" of corn going to someday come to the market..... Better sell today and not get caught........FWIW...... p-oed
02-06-2012 10:52 AM
I'm in the camp that doesn't necessarily think it matters whether the corn stored on farm is spoken for or not. Locally, we have seen over the years how this spoken for corn all of a sudden ends up back on the open market. One local ethanol plant did it three times in 2008. When corn prices rallied well above where they had bought the corn, they sold it back on the open market. Last year, a huge local feedlot did the same thing replacing the corn with cheap feed wheat. When they did this, the basis got crucified.