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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk February 7

[ Edited ]

VIDEO: USDA Report Preview by Terry Roggensack of the Hightower Report.

 

VIDEO:  OptionEye   previews Friday's USDA Report saying that the options show no fear.

 

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At the close:

The March futures corn contract settled 10 cents lower at $7.12. The March soybean futures contract finished 1 cent lower at $14.86. March wheat futures closed 6 cents lower at $7.55 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract ended $0.55 lower at $51.90. The March soymeal futures finished $0.40 per short ton higher at $437.50


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.80 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 52 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March futures corn contract is trading 8 cents lower at $7.14. The March soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $14.89. March wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $7.56 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.39 lower at $52.06. The March soymeal futures are trading $1.80 per short ton higher at $438.90


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.63 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 114 points lower.

 

One analyst says, "The soybean market is getting the bid from the export sales for sure, plus lots of ideas that shipments will get switched to the U.S. from South America.  "None of that is happening yet, though the talk is out there.  I personally doubt it will happen," he says. The South American crops are going to be big and they (Brazilians) will find a way to get them moved.  The weather for the whole continent looks to get better next week, wetter south and drier north which will help." 
Export sales were bearish for corn and wheat. 
"I also see bull spreads working in corn which is the tight supply nearby.  I am kind of getting the idea that there is corn out there in first hands, but not on offer.  Plus, new crop hurt in corn and soybeans due to the CBO data the other day.  Why anyone cares I have no idea, as it is just a trend yield against harvest area calculations. But,  it gives the idea that big production is coming next year."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March futures corn contract is trading 4 cents lower at $7.18. The March soybean futures contract is trading 8 cents higher at $14.95. March wheat futures are trading 1 cent lower at $7.60 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.06 lower at $52.39. The March soymeal futures are trading $3.30 per short ton higher at $440.40


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 120 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 8:50am:

Lanworth, the crop forecaster, released a record-large U.S. corn crop estimate for 2013 Thursday.

 

Corn=13.8 billion bushels totaling 350 million tons. An average yield of 155.6 bu./acre is being used to figure this year's crop size.

 

Wheat= 2013 production was lowered from 1.94 billion bushels to 1.93 billion.

 

How do these numbers hit you? And, how do they hit the market? WOW!  A pretty optimistic yield average, I'd say.

 

Mike

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At 8:25am:

 

From the "In case you missed it" department. NEWSFLASH: The "BIG Money" is exiting commodities. Remember, back when, when we were talking about the outside money coming into cotton, wheat and then corn and soybeans and helping push these commodities to all-time highs? Well, a Wall Street Journal story Tuesday signals that pension funds and others like them are replacing commodities in the portfolios of such investors like the Illinois and California's teacher retirement accounts with bonds and other investment choices. Why? Well, the statistics show the move into commodities lost them money.

 

The story is quoted as stating "The trend is accelerating this year."

 

I've already received a note or two from analysts that say this is certainly something to pay attention to, in the coming months. I've also been told that although you may not be seeing the trend in the Committment of Traders Report, you will soon. It appears wheat is the first ag commodity that is seeing this BIG MONEY exodus.

 

What say you? I've always been told that if you take ethanol and BIG MONEY out of the picture, the markets could look very different.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

 

Here are the results of the USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report:

 

Corn=160,400 vs. the trade's expectations of 150,000-400,000 mt

 

Soybeans=1.66 million metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 800,000-1,300,000 metric tons

Wheat=300,800 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 200,000-500,000 metric tons

Soybean meal=196,300 mt vs. the trade's 75,000-225,000 metric tons.

 

Mike

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At 6:25am: 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 4-6 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 3-5 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.35 per barrel higher
Dollar=Lower. 
Wall Street=Seen up, ahead of a Fed Bank President speech that will be watched Thursday. Also, the U.S. Jobless Claims Report will be out today.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly lower and Europe's stocks mixed.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,129
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 7

Mike,

 

I have been meaning to ask you but why do certain words pop up in blue and then send you to another website??  It started I think a couple of weeks ago.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 7

giolucas,

 

I don't see what you refer to. Let's talk about it.

 

Mike

 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 7

FWIW:

 

Sales of agricultural machinery in Brazil last month totaled 5,859 units, registering a record for the month of January, in the rocking good time living Brazilian agribusiness, according to Anfavea association representing manufacturers, according to Reuters in a story published in Brazil Wednesday.

The machine sales in January were up 2.3% compared to December and 32.6 % from a year ago.

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 7

[ Edited ]

It looks like somebody thinks Brazil's crops are getting bigger not smaller.

 

CONAB, a Brazilian supply company and government agency, released new 2013 harvest estimates Thursday:

Corn=  76 mmts, above expectations and above the USDA's 71 mmt forecast.

Soybean= 83.4 mmts, up 700,000 mts from its January number and above the USDA's 82.5.

 

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 7

All of this bearish news and beans are trading higher today?   The way the corn market has acted this week, it appears folks are banking on the report showing huge reductions in exports and ethanol usage.   Gonna cause some endusers to raise the basis to get those bin doors open.    

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 7

roarintiger1,

 

The news does seem quite bearish. Maybe these are bearish signs for what's up the road?

 

Mike

Advisor
Faust100F
Posts: 831
Registered: ‎11-09-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk February 7

[ Edited ]

Ummmmm . . . 135 ships setting offshore waiting to load . . . it was 67 last year,  waiting time to load 50 days .  Nice to see there is optimism among the mental institution section housing a n a l-yst inmates . . .   Mike . . . have that **bleep**-yst send me some of what he is smoking will you.  Nice to see the exporting of beans is so well organized.   . . . its Brazil!  No doubt about it, it is running like a well oiled machine down there  Adios. John  

Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,123
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk February 7

MIke I've said it before Corn is a leading indicator of inflation.  That means at some time the indicator has to move to and it becomes the reality. Commodities in general have had thier run. Does that mena we go lower?

 

No but it probably means we do not go higher. And it certainly means the big profits are gone.   Once the lagging indicators catch up to the leading indicators (and they always do) we are back to tight margins. 

 

The big money has now realized that some of those laggers may be the place to have thier money those items will be the ones to bring big profits.

 

Sucky part is after those have run the course there will be no more big moves to make big money. 

 

When this bubble bursts gonna be real ugly. 

 

And no amount of fed printing is gonna do anything about it.  Also for all the funnymental guys out there. The river, the exports and the drought will not trump the reverse money flow.

 

Gonna suck to be a grain farmer for the next decade.  ( of course this is a generality for some of you it is gonna really suck! )

Veteran Contributor
farmerinontaro
Posts: 87
Registered: ‎11-15-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk February 7

[ Edited ]

jrsiajdranch wrote:


Gonna suck to be a grain farmer for the next decade.  ( of course this is a generality for some of you it is gonna really suck! )


jrs, how do I say this politely?  BULL!  (Sorry, just don't know how to respond any kinder to the "sky is falling!")

 

Quite frankly, I don't believe you!