02-08-2013 06:48 AM - edited 02-08-2013 02:49 PM
At the close:
The March futures corn contract settled 1 cent lower at $7.09. The March soybean futures contract finished 34 cents lower at $14.52. March wheat futures ended 1/2 of a cent higher at $7.56 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract closed $0.42 lower at $51.43. The March soymeal futures finished $15.20 per short ton lower at $422.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.14per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 28 points higher.
The March futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $7.16. The March soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $14.80. March wheat futures are trading 12 cents higher at $7.68 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.02 lower at $51.83. The March soymeal futures are trading $3.10 per short ton lower at $434.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.49 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 46 points higher.
The Report is bearish for soybeans. The market is down 12 cents because of it.
U.S. 2012-13 corn carryout at 632 million bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 615 million bushels and the government's January estimate of 602 million.
USDA sees the 2012-13 U.S. soybean carryout at 125 million bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 129 million bushels and the USDA's January estimate of 135 million.
The U.S. 2012-13 wheat carryout is pegged at 691 million bushels compared to the average analyst estimate of 728 million bushels and the USDA's January estimate of 716 million.
Meanwhile, the USDA lowered the U.S. 2013 corn exports to
USDA pegged the 2012-13 Brazilian corn production at 72.5 million metric tons vs. the average analyst estimate of 71.1 mmt and the USDA's January estimate of 71.0 mmt.
For soybeans, Brazil's 2013 production is estimated at 83.5 mmt vs. the average analyst estimate of 83.1 mmt and the USDA's previous estimate of 82.5 mmt.
Argentina's 2013 corn production is estimated at 27.0 mmt vs. the average analyst estimate of 26.6 mmt and the USDA's previous estimate of 28.0 mmt.
In its report, the USDA pegged the 2013 Argentina soybean crop at 53.0 mmt vs. the average analyst estimate of 53.0 mmt and the USDA's previous estimate of 54.0 mmt.
Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says the focus now shifts to the tightness of U.S. soybean stocks.
"The story remains in the soybean complex, with demand unabated and continuing tightness as reflected in the extremely low stocks-to-use ratio. It appears that significant price rationing has not yet occurred in the bean complex, and that US soy exports will hold steady due to healthy global demand.
On a global basis, it is also predicted that the world will use more corn that it produces by about 13 million tons. This might continue to put pressure on end-users of old crop corn as supplies remain tight. The markets will be watching South American production and exports very closely for the remainder of the crop year.
Once again, the importance of a large, early North American harvest for both corn and soybeans will loom large in traders’ minds as they look to see if farmers can replenish historically low stock levels in both soybeans and corn and alleviate severe late-summer price rationing in old crop supplies.
Wheat markets remain balanced, even as demand in the US increases slightly resulting in slightly lower ending inventories for this crop year," he says.
---One analyst says, The US Numbers were a little friendly to soy/wheat while slightly negative to corn, but mostly built in. It is the world numbers that are bearish across and probably limit any upside. Wildcard is short covering in the wheat, which if that happens could support corn. Remember corn down 30 cents coming into today so a bounce at anytime could occur. Can’t say too bearish to beans with carryout declining 10 million bushels, but world totals increased in South America."
At the open:
The March futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $7.14. The March soybean futures contract is trading 3 cents higher at $14.90. March wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $7.60 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.04 higher at $51.89. The March soymeal futures are trading $0.20 per short ton higher at $437.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.59 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 60 points higher.
--Japan seeks 95,000 tons of food wheat, barley.
--S. Korea flour mills purchased 23,700 mt of U.S. wheat Friday.
--No fresh export sales Friday.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.41 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen mixed, as China's economic news shows that its exports jumped 25% in January vs. a year ago. Meanwhile, Germany reported its bigges surplus in 60 years.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher and Europe's stocks were higher.
More in a minute,
02-08-2013 06:58 AM - edited 02-08-2013 07:26 AM
With all this talk about South American estimates and the drought relief even if this report comes in bullish for soybeans, it might be short lived. Here comes the pain
02-08-2013 08:13 AM
I'm guessing that it will be a short lived reaction to the report. Back to trading S.A. weather AND U.S. weather very soon.
02-08-2013 10:05 AM - edited 02-09-2013 12:38 PM
10:30 am - prompt Corn and Bean over July spreads are taking off, as well.
Jerrod Kitt -Linn group from briefing yest. indicated the risk in wheat is a possible shortage of food grade, but not feed. mkt seems to be "thinking" this pre-report.
.......otherwise, the Feb report being most benign of the year.
02-08-2013 11:16 AM
Brazil's soybeans raised 1 mmt and Argentina's soybeans lowered 1 mmt......And U.S. soybean supply lowered 10 million bushels. Doesn't really sound bearish to me.......but what do I know?
02-08-2013 11:19 AM - edited 02-08-2013 11:35 AM
got to remember, however, beans completed impulse (that lead diagonal) 4 days ago- cat? ---so end of correction probably today
@ least we read the same information roarin'
interesting, I don't see the SA #'s as bearish ---beans were a wash, corn est up 0.5 M m tons = only about 19.6 m bu?........
US bean carryout is friendly.
02-08-2013 02:27 PM - edited 02-08-2013 02:29 PM
"Bean numbers don't look bearish to me....but what do I know?" Beans down 32 today........Obviously, I don't know too much. It's Friday........maybe the bulls left early for a long weekend. Looks like China can buy beans "on sale" again.
02-08-2013 09:05 PM
# ? * ! -- Was looking at it pretty much same way.