01-10-2013 09:50 AM
Highyields- can I ask how the older traders differ than the younger traders? Are the younger traders more of the risk-takers? Just curious as to why you mentioned that is all. Thanks.
01-10-2013 09:57 AM
As a younger trader I use to swing for the fences and lost alot. As an older trader with kids, bills and the need to put food on the table I look for base hits.I use to trade more as a younger trader, now I trade less but with more volume. Then again my wife wants me to swing for homeruns every now and then.
01-10-2013 10:32 AM
The younger traders tend to over react. This isn't so much the case in the grains, all the time, but its like they over analysis everything and then its "all in" Look at this report tomorrow, it will be interesting to see if we can get a limit move or not with it coming out during trading hours,
I know some of that is due to electronic trader and computer driven algorithms. Then the funds can push markets one way or there other, usually moving them more then they should be.
They are not good at recognizing market trends, they are market followers, lets chase the tail of the corn market and hope we are not the last one buying, when you get everyone thinking that way you get these huge spikes in the market. In my opinion
Its a different kind of "risk" that they are willing to take, its not calculated risk in my opinion. I know there is a lot more technical stuff then when I was taught, I had my first marketing class in 1998 at University of Nebraska LIncoln, some guy that was in his 60's that was more in tuned to hitting doubles then home runs. He wanted all the kids in the class that where going to farm to make a profit and all the guys that where to be traders to make a profit and all the guys that where to manage elevators to make SURE they had a margin built into their bids. The professor I had retired and 2 years later my roommate took the same class with the new guy, it was all technical analysis
My roommate had a mock trader account on the internet and he was taught to watch the 5 minute chart, once that move, take a positions, once it move against you get out of that positions, my roommate made $5000 in mock trading profit in one day doing that. He was buying like 10 contracts at once, and again it was fake money, but still if a fund managers do that kind of stuff, that is why we have markets like we do.
High risk means High rewards OR High loses. The loses never get talked about until they get caught and lose someone else's money though.
I have cash corn that I was going to sell, the market slipped way faster then I thought it would before Christmas, But if I had no cash corn on hand I would buy a call on corn July futures and see where it takes me. I'm not bitching about fund traders but Its harder to market now I think then it use to be, I see guys my dads age get burned so darn bad some times I feel bad for them, but its the nature of the beast. Take this report tomorrow and my corn, If I would sell today before the close, ( I don't think I will) I should buy a call to keep me in the market incase there is a crazy surprise in the report tomorrow. One thing I see done alot non one sells on up days, its always after a market has taken a major break, then they sell, then the market moves back up on them again.
That's another thing the marketing professor taught me, if you have cash corn on hand or in the bin, don't' take another long position in the market since you are already long, if you took a long positions on the futures then you are double exposed.
I remember in 96 when the corn market was up the 12 cent limit daily, everyone thought that was insane, when the corn market moves less the 5 cents I think its a quiet day now.
Its different now, the short answer is computers, more technical and better technical analysis, and more money,
I get a little long winded....
01-10-2013 10:39 AM
Comes the notion that money in the account need not always pursue a trade.
Just because you have $20k in the trading account or $50K in the trading account does not mean you must put it at risk.
The reason for making a trade is because you see opportunity for gains not that you have money in the account that needs to be working for you. It's not like an interest bearing investment that must be renewed post haste.
Of course as you get more mature you may come to the conclusion that you don't need to trade any more.
01-10-2013 10:43 AM
Mike -- The bean sells do look good ----------------- on paper and that's about all , looks like to me that this is only a win , win deal for China or who ever buys beans before the report -- they buy or lock in price now if they go up , then they have the price locked --- if they go down ? just cancel the order and buy back cheaper price beans , right or wrong ?
BTW hows the twins ? Sleeping better ? lol
01-10-2013 01:40 PM - edited 01-10-2013 01:41 PM
The twins are doing well. Thanks for asking. I have given up getting sleep like some have given up on $8 corn. The boys are growing fast. They help me post the market information in the morning. So, if you see a typo here or there, you'll know that one of them hit the keyboard.
No doubt, the Asian buyers are trying to get their purchases made before the report hits. It is weird how we're seeing more and more of export announcements that have 'optional origin' attached to them.
01-10-2013 01:46 PM
I would guess that the "optional origin" thing comes about because no one is sure they can get all the bushels they want to fill an order.