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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,056
Registered: ‎05-03-2010

Floor Talk January 11 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March futures corn contract settled 11 cents higher at $7.10. The March soybean futures contract finished 7 cents higher at $14.24. March wheat futures settled 9 cents higher at $7.54 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract closed $0.51 lower at $48.88. The Jan. soymeal futures settled $2.70 per short ton lower at $406.00.  


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.22 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

At 12-Noon:

Corn is up 23 cents, wheat is up 26 cents. Soybeans have fallen to negative territory.

 

Mike

----------

At 11:05am:

 

The news is that although we jumped on the corn market, the report is not triggering a limit up or limit down. So, not a limit report.

 

What do you think?

 

At 11am:

 

USDA Says:

 

Grain Stocks

U.S. Corn Dec. 1 Stocks=8.03 billion bushels vs. average trade estimate of 8.21 billion bushels.

 

Harvested Acres:

Corn= 87.4 million vs. 87.7 million last month and the average trade estimate of 86.8 million

Soybeans= 76.1 million vs. 75.7 from USDA previous and the trade estimate of 75.5 million

 

Yield:

Corn=123 vs. the average trade estimate of 122.6 and USDA's last of 122

Soybean=39.6  vs. the average trade estimate of 39.6 and the USDA's previous of 39.3.

 

Production:

Corn=10.78 billion  vs. the average trade estimate of 10.626 billion bushels

Soybean=3.010 billion vs. the average trade estimate of 2.99 billion bushels and the USDA's previous 2.971.

 

REACTION:

Corn jumped up and now is working its way back to just 7 cents.

 

--One analyst says, ""There was something for everyone in today's report. The production numbers for corn and beans all came in over pre-report estimates and the November report, while quarterly stocks under estimates. Since ending stocks reserves are the lasting fundamental, traders traded those first with big report release rallies. Then profit taking pulled everything off the highs on the production figures. At mid-session all three grains reflected the ending stocks carry over. The 45 m.b. drop in corn ending stocks had us up 20 cents . The 38 m.b. drop in wheat ending stocks had us up 21 cents  while the 5 m.b. increase for beans had us down 10 cents. There's nothing in the report that suggests a near term low is in. They should come in Monday saying the report was priced in Friday and go back to the business on hand that is a weakening demand pace and good south American weather for crops and selling again. "

 

---Alan Brugler, President of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC says, "USDA found fewer bushels on Dec 1 at 8.03 billion. Production was actually raised a little due to yield at 123.4, but implied feed use is larger than the trade had expected, in order to get that Dec 1 number.  Report is bullish fundamentally, but buying reaction has been muted thus far.
Soybean report is bearish by not being bullish. Projected ending stocks UNCH at 135 million. Production up on revisions to both yield and harvested acres.  Brazilian soy production up 1.5 MMT to 82.5 million, but Argentina cut 1 MMT.
Wheat report is bull friendly, with US ending stocks cut to 716 million bushels. New crop winter wheat acres smaller than expected at 41.8 million, with HRW only 29.1 million vs. trade guess of 30.296.
US cotton ending stocks down to 4.8 million, but still comfortable. Production at 17.01 million bales," Brugler says.

 

---Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Funds analyst, says the report confirms global consumption of all grains last crop year will exceed production by nearly 31 million tons, solidifying the notion that demand for grains even in the higher priced environment of the past year is strong.
"Global corn use is projected higher primarily due to higher feed numbers in the United States. Global corn stocks are also projected to decline, led by the US corn carry-out at especially low levels. Tightness in old crop corn remains prevalent, and may result in a widening spread between old crop prices and prices for corn in the coming crop year," Gilbertie says.
End users of corn will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s early planting season to ease concerns of mid and late summer supply shortages, he says.
The soybean balance sheet remains very tight, but comes as no surprise to the trade. Gilbertie says. S
"South American production will be traders’ main focus for the next few months to ease supply concerns in both soybeans and corn," Gilbertie says.
Gilbertie adds, "Global wheat stocks are projected to decline, and US wheat exports are expected to remain stable because wheat supplies from many alternate suppliers running short due to poor weather abroad.".

 

Mike

---------

At 10:15am:

With soybeans trading down 23 cents, corn down 11, it looks like somebody thinks this upcoming report could be bearish. Or, is this just sell it and try to buy back later? But, if the report is bullish, you'll be buying back at a higher price. Maybe folks are just headed to the sidelines and will wait for this report stuff to work its way through the market 'system' and then re-enter at a later date?

 

Mike

-------

At the open:

The March futures corn contract is trading 3 cents lower at $6.95. The March soybean futures contract is trading 12 cents lower at $13.67. March wheat futures are trading 3 cents lower at $7.40 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.27 lower at $49.49. The March soymeal futures are trading $6.80 per short ton lower at $398.80.  


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.80 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 25 points lower.

 

Mike

-------------

At 8:20am:

--USDA announces Friday that China bought 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.

 

Mike

---------

At 5:40am:

We're seeing more purchases from Asian buyers, ahead of the USDA Reports at 11am Friday.

For instance:

--A South Korea buyer announced Friday a purchase of 55,000 mt of optional origin feed wheat, most likely from South America or India.

--A Taiwan buyer announced a tender for 60,000 mt of optional origin corn. Last month, this same company bought Brazilian corn, according to the Dow Jones Newswire.

 

 

Mike

--------

At 5:30am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 11-13 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.35 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat-to-lower, as trader are nervous about what results Wells Fargo will report later today.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mostly mixed, and Europe's stocks are mixed.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,089
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 11 (Report Day)

The candles are lit and the prayers have been said. C'mon snake eyes.

 

Have a feeling the market will fake us out when report comes out.  

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 396
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 11 (Report Day)

Damm them Chinese ........ They just keep buying..... When are they going to stop...... I can't take it any more...... Somebody is going to get hurt before this is all said and done......p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Advisor
WCMO
Posts: 467
Registered: ‎06-30-2010

Re: Floor Talk January 11 (Report Day)

I'm sure I'm just naive, yet it seems to me that the USDA reports should never have the impact they're built up to be.  Anything that is a surprise represents a breakdown in the system somewhere along the line.  There are no real secrets out here in the country.  Everyone's perceptions of the way things are have already been built into prices.  Anything to the contrary, is the result of someone trying to make the market think something else, for whatever the reason.  Markets might react in the short term, then we'll be right back to reality.

____________________________________

"My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government." - Thomas Jefferson

"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." - Abraham Lincoln
Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 3,741
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk January 11 (Report Day)

I agree with your comments WCMO, but you forget that we are dealing with the Gov. here.  They don't have to play fair or even follow a set of guidelines.

 

Just keep in mind, your best interest is in their hands.  Isn't that a comforting thought.

Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 10,744
Registered: ‎05-10-2010

if you think the reports are rigged

Don't read them!  Or buy before the reports. I don't think the USDA has anyones interest in mind.

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 3,741
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: if you think the reports are rigged

Sure they do Kraft.  Themselves!  Oh wait, you said mind.  Forget it, most of them are out of their minds.

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,089
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 11 (Report Day)

I think the market is telling us what the REPORT is going to say.  

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 396
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 11 (Report Day)

Better sell then giolucas...... the market is never wrong..... TIC....... p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,089
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 11 (Report Day)

How do you know I am not on the sell side.