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01-12-2012 06:36 AM - edited 01-12-2012 02:13 PM
At the close:
At the close, the March corn futures settle down the 40 cent daily 'limit' down at $6.11 1/2. The March soybean contract settled 20 1/2 cents lower at $11.82 1/2. The March wheat futures ended 36 cents lower at $6.05. The March soymeal futures settled $5.70 per short ton lower at $307.10. The March soyoil futures settled $0.43 lower at $51.46.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.66 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 14 points.
Tomorrow's corn limit will go up to 60 cents, due to a 'limit' down close today. If we drop the limit tomorrow, that would be taking $1.00 off the market in just two days.
One analyst says the rally in soybeans has to do with weather and demand. "We sold 400,000 mt of soybeans to unknown, most likely China. The rest of the rally is mostly spec and maybe producer selling, as they blow their brains out. I think we close weak today and see some lower prices overnight. But, the buy-side is a little short too and will use this break to buy in all of the markets. But, a big down reaction to a bearish report! That part never changes it seems!"
Paraguayan Ag Minister says 2.0 mmt of soybeand have been lost in that country, due to drought. In Brazil, a Plus, a Brazilian farmer reported on Farmersforthefuture.com that Brazil's southern crop really needs more rain than it's getting.
Synthetically, March corn is trading 3-4 cents lower than the 40-cent futures limit down.
At the open, the March corn futures are stuck at the 40 cent daily 'limit' down at $6.11 1/2. The March soybean contract is trading 30 1/2 cents lower at $11.72 1/2. The March wheat futures are trading 39 cents lower at $6.02. The March soymeal futures are trading $9.40 per short ton lower at $303.40. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.90 lower at $50.99.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.29 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 31 points.
One floor trader says if the soybean market continues to rally and reaches $11.80, the March corn contract could come off its daily 'limit' down.
Corn hits its daily 40 cent limit down. Soybeans have fallen 50 cents, with a daily limit of 70 cents.
This baby is tanking!
At the open:
At the open, the March corn futures trade 39 1/2 cents lower at $6.12. The March soybean contract opened 34 cents lower at $11.66 3/4. The March wheat futures opened 38 cents lower at $6.01. The March soymeal futures opened $13.00 per short ton lower at $298.80. The March soyoil futures opened $1.35 lower at $50.54.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.32 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 36 points.
OTC market has corn trading 25-30 cents lower, at this moment.
UPDATE: Early Calls: Corn 25-30 cents lower, soybeans 30 cents lower and wheat 25 cents lower.
Corn is seen opening limit down, soybeans 20-30 cents lower. Watch for updates on Early Calls as the morning progresses.
For 2011, the USDA estimates U.S. corn production at 12.35 billion bushels vs. the USDA's December estimate of 12.310 billion bushels and the average trade analysts estimate of 12.280 billion.
The USDA estimates the U.S. 2011 soybean production at 3.056 billion bushels, compared to the average trade estimate of 3.042 billion and the USDA's December estimate of 3.046 billion bushels.
For corn, the USDA lowered its 2011 U.S. yield at 147.2 bushels per acre vs. the trade's average estimate of 146.4 bushels per acre and the USDA's December estimate of 146.7. The USDA pegged the U.S. soybean yield at 41.5 bushels per acre) vs. the average trade's estimate of 41.3 bushels per acre and the USDA's December estimate of 41.3.
Dec. 1 Grain Stocks:
Corn=9.642 billion bushels
LOOKS BEARISH. What say you?
Corn=2011/12 exports were raised 50 million bushels higher than previous USDA estimate.
Soybeans=Projected at 1.275 billion bushels, down 25 million from last month and dlown 226 million from 2010/11.
Key World Production:
Brazil soybeans=74.0 mmt, down from 75.0 mmt in December.
Argentina soybeans=50.5 mmt, down from 52.0 mmt in Dec.
Argentina corn=Lowered 3.0 million metric tons.
--One analyst says, "Wow, very bearish Grain Stocks for corn. Beans were also bearish but not nearly as much as corn. Wheat was surprisingly friendly."
--One floor trader says, "Corn market leaning the wrong way. Bearish corn and beans. Wheat looked neutral but should follow."
--Yet another analyst says, "Corn: a neutral to bearish report by the USDA that is somewhat less bullish than private forecasts by the trade. Corn use for ethanol is projected to remain steady, even after the expiration of the ethanol related tax credits. Projected world of use of corn is projected to rise to a record level once again. February’s report will give more visibility to the situation in South America, which could in turn cause an upward readjustment of projected export demand for U.S corn. Any price dip as a result of this report may be tempered by the uncertainty surrounding SAM weather and production."
--Yet another analyst, says the USDA data is a surprise. "For soybeans, the data is surprisingly bearish on ending stocks but a lot was priced in yesterday. Corn ending stocks were lower, but well over expectations. So, a lower open is certain, but dry weather in South America looks to cut ending stocks next month."
--Another analyst says, "Looks bearish, with beans leading the way. Should be sharply lower, mostly on the ending stocks estimates. Production side is negative, but not hugely so, but the cuts in domestic and export demand in beans for ending stocks increases will grab attention. I am sure that So America is not really in here yet, but I am still looking. But based on the headline numbers we can have a sharply lower day."
Early calls: Subject to the USDA Supply/Demand and Crop Production Reports to be released at 7:30am CST. Overnight, corn traded 7 cents higher, soybeans 7 cents higher, and wheat 5 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.40 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher as the debt auctions in Italy and Spain have been received well. U.S. Jobs data will be released today.
World Markets=Asian/Pacific stocks are lower, Europe's stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
01-12-2012 07:36 AM - edited 01-12-2012 08:07 AM
Man you type fast. 8:32 and already an overview.
Anyway- I would say initially bearish, then looking for opportunity to buy the dip.
As an aside- it looks like they have locked up the bid and ask on the electronic trading- usually it is either way up or way down with huge size but this time it is just sitting there at previous close numbers. Is this a new procedure does anyone know?
Never mind- now it is working. Showing limit down at 611.50
01-12-2012 07:43 AM - edited 01-12-2012 07:45 AM
the cycles pick the tops I just interpret them. fundementals lag and in this case the usda report isn't bullish so we go down. So much for melby and Mcintosh. Throw in the bigger then expected rains and it might not look good.
01-12-2012 07:48 AM
I wasn't confident in any prediction for putting positions on before the report..so I sat on the sidelines too. I had a feeling we were going to see a "January low" in the markets again...but Argentina's situation had me uncertain. Now the question is...when is the low going to occur? Today?...Next Week? the last week of the month? The only thing I know for certain is...I made a comment a while ago asking whether we ought to be selling July calls. I should go back through the archives to find when it was...but I know it was a lot of unrealized profit ago. I'm going to put on next year's Christmas list an app for an I-phone that switches your hindsight to forsight....I'm betting it would be a huge seller....
01-12-2012 07:54 AM
This is just another "USDA report" everything off sets itself somewhere. I guess I still remember the days last spring that said we needed more acres, didn't get them, needed more of everything but yet here we sit with less of a crop then 2010 and yet we are projected to go limit down?!?!
The trader has it in his head that this is a "big report" is there really anything in this report that surprised anybody?
Historically the market goes down towards the the first of February anyway,
01-12-2012 07:57 AM - edited 01-12-2012 08:00 AM
less corn and soya in the world than a year ago............less corn and wheat and flat soya in the US than a year ago.........
USDA report with SA prod numbers that are already out of date.............as new cuts in production come across the wire..........
seems bearish considering what happened a year ago............
It is an election year............this was the break end users were looking for............if I were an end user I wouldnt be late to the all you can eat buffet.........we haven't even put a 2012 crop in the ground yet and its a long time till harvest...........
cash corn bid going to poultry (S MO) a few days ago was $7.30ish..........thats bearish right............
EDIT: anyone got a guess what the crop insurance price will be set at this year?????