01-14-2013 07:21 AM - edited 01-14-2013 03:17 PM
At the close:
The March futures corn contract settled 15 cents higher at $7.24. The March soybean futures contract settled 44 cents higher at $14.18. March wheat futures finished 12 cents higher at $7.67 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract ended $1.21 higher at $50.45. The March soymeal futures settled $13.20 per short ton higher at $417.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.69 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points higher.
Beans have jumped 46¢ per busel. One floor trader says that here are the reasons this rally is occuring:
--Soybeans were oversold in previous months.
--Funds went long soybeans, according to Friday's CFTC Report.
--We need so much moisture before spring that the market is getting nervous.
--China bought U.S. soybeans Monday.
--He does say the floor is surprisingly quiet, despite this rally.
The March futures corn contract is trading 14 cents higher at $7.23. The March soybean futures contract is trading 41 cents higher at $14.14. March wheat futures are trading 18 cents higher at $7.73 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is $1.30 higher at $50.54. The March soymeal futures are trading $9.80 per short ton higher at $414.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.19 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 4 points higher.
At the open:
The March futures corn contract is trading 15 cents higher at $7.24. The March soybean futures contract opened25 cents higher at $13.99. March wheat futures opened 13 cents higher at $7.68 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract opened $0.69 higher at $49.92 The March soymeal futures opened $6.10 per short ton higher at $410.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.05 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20points lower.
So, where is corn going? Tom White, an independent in the corn pit trader says technically there is a bias to the long side.
In his own words Monday morning:
"The move higher on the crop report on Friday tested back to a weekly moving average and .50 of the last “leg” of the market. Interestingly, the 678 low was basically at .50 of a longer-term move to the downside. The market did create a double reversal week (lower low but close above the previous two closes) which would indicate a bias to the long side. After double reversal patterns, markets often first try to trade in the opposite direction (i.e. lower in this case). But if we do get the resumed buying, we’ll monitor for a possible test of the mid-line in the 733.4 area. Whether another move higher (if we do get one) gives the market a “longer-term” bullish bias still remains to be seen."
--USDA announces that 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2012-13 delivery.
--NOPA reports Monday that the U.S. December soybean crush totaled 159.89 mill. bushels, up 2.59 million from a year ago.
--Winterkill has damaged 25% of Russia's wheat this year, according to the Dow Jones Newswire.
Separately, since the U.S. con/soybean price ratio is so narrow, does this make it difficult to decide which crop to plant in 2013? Corn or soybeans, which will win the acreage battle? Looks like a close race, here in January?
Early calls: Corn is seen 10-12 cents higher, soybeans 16-18 cents higher, and wheat 12-14 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply higher.
Crude Oil=$0.40 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, as traders await a speech Monday by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
01-14-2013 08:13 AM
Good Morning Mike
For what it's worth , Thee guy's I have talked too out in Kansas -- that raised some corn last year , said no way they would plant any this year , they said they have better luck with milo or beans in dry conditions .
Then did I read about cotton the other day ? that there is not as much as some thought ? maybe it was a dream = maybe more cotton ground than to corn ?
I for myself just don't see 99 million acres -- but what do i know -- I'm a Hoosier , lol
01-14-2013 08:25 AM
I think some what like ECI. 99 million acres of corn is a pipe dream in today's climate pattern.
After all many did NOT raise a good crop last year and corn is the most expensive crop of the Corn, Beans, Milo, or Wheat crops planted in the marginal areas. I'm not sure the finances are out there to waste seed in the dust.
Crop insurance rates may change that if for no other reason than the $ guarantee per bu/acre may now have time to run up to a signifcant #. Farming has turned into a blood sport in many ways. $7+ corn and $13+ beans are causing havoc with the marginal acres.
01-14-2013 09:09 AM
$2.00 spread between cash now and Oct/Nov new crop corn prices here right now. Not a lot of incentive to rush rush right out and want to plant a marginal acre.
01-14-2013 09:19 AM
I think we get the 99 million acres of corn, It might be closer to that 100 million acres. We had less acres of wheat now I'm not for sure where the acres of wheat disappears but you can raise corn in North Dakota now, really good yields as well. So the corn belt might have moved north. Cotton producers sunk a lot of money into corn producing assets that last few years, I doubt if they let them set ideal. Don't forget about CRP acres, I thought that was between 2-4 million acres this year. Corn and Corn might be a better choice this year in eastern belt since we have left over nutrients in the ground and they go plenty of fall field work done.
We are going to have plenty of corn and bean acres for 2013 just depends on if we start getting rain in the western belt or not.
Several years ago when the ethanol was starting to grow most people wonder how we would ever raise enough corn, well given the opportunity American farmers can raise more corn they we know what to do with. Not to mention the rest of the world.