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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,048
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk January 14

[ Edited ]

Headline News: "BEANS ARE IN THE TEENS"

At the close:

The March corn futures contract closed 3 cents lower at $4.31. The March soybean futures contract finished 12 3/4 cents higher at $13.07. March wheat futures finished 5 3/4 cents higher at $5.79 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract ended $8.20 per short ton higher at $430.10. The March soyoil futures settled $0.08 lower at $37.76.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.57 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 99 points higher.

 

Soybeans have put on 27 cents in the past two sessions. Can the momentum continue.

 

Mike

-------

At mid-session:

The March corn futures contract is trading 4 1/2  cents lower at $4.30. The March soybean futures contract is trading 11 cents higher at $13.05. March wheat futures are 1/2 of a cent higher at $5.74 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract is trading $5.20 per short ton higher at $427.10. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.03 lower at $37.81.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.36 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 63 points higher.

 

One analyst says, "Beans lead the upside with buying off weather concerns in, Argentina, the world's number three producer/exporter of beans. It's clear, this week will be dry and hot. But, there's fear for next week as well. One weather model has ample rain but another sees only 25% of the grain growing area getting a inch or less. Trading funds trade fear before  fact."

 

Mike

--------

At the open:

The March corn futures contract is trading 3 1/4 cents lower at $4.31. The March soybean futures contract is trading 3 cents higher at $12.97. March wheat futures are 1 3/4 cents lower at $5.71 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract is trading $1.30 per short ton higher at $423.20. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.04 lower at $37.80.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.20 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 46 points higher.

 

Mike

-------------

At 7:15am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly weaker.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.09 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen lower, as weak earnings are reported. Wells Fargo shares were falling Tuesday morning. The earnings season could get ugly.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower, Europe stocks lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,048
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 14

News from South America is rolling into my inbox and Skype accounts this morning. Here's what I'm hearing:

 

From Argentina, my market analyst contact says, "In Argentina, high temperatures are occurring. It is said that the corn will not have good yields by high temperatures. Soybeans are also experiencing hig temperatures and more heat is expected on Friday. To think between your city and our city there is a diference of almost 100 degrees.

 

From Brazil, a source just got off of the phone with an Argentine analyst that sees corn price gaining support from a number of fundamental factors. "Buenos Aires analyst says the fall of corn exports in South America will support corn value in the season. Matías Tortorella, associate of the Buenos Aires-based consultancy Gestionar, forecasts that a few factors will support the corn value in this crop season: more domestic demand in the United States boosted by the swine and ethanol industries improved gains, a smaller corn area in Argentina, and better margins for soybeans in Brazil.  “This will give support to the corn value”, Tortorella says in an agricultural analysis.

 

My question is whether international fundamentals alone will be able to pull the corn market out of the ditch? What say you?

 

Mike

 

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,258
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 14

[ Edited ]

Hard to judge the political pressure from this distance.   Sounded like Arg. was trying to get something sold this last week, and producers were balking.

 

Your question -------- no as long as supply is readily available from the north half.

sw
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,658
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 14

What say you?

 

Just remember you asked.

 

We are not in the "ditch", But we are not on that 6 lane interstate we were cruising on last year either.

 

Some of those high maintenance high fliers with the wide tall loads of debt and rents just as well be in a ditch. The rest of us are just on a gravel road with  a few washboard and pot hole areas.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,658
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 14

--------------------------------------------------------------    

MARKET COMMENTARY January 14, 2013

 

By Raymond Jenkins

 

Corn traded weaker through most of the morning, down 7+ cents at one time, but recovered in the last hour, resulting in less than three cent losses for the day. Soybeans enjoyed another day of double digit gains, up 9-12 cents in nearby contracts, but just 4.5 cents higher in the November contract.

 

The trade is still digesting the Friday crop report, but it should be positive that the sharp losses from early today did not hold all the way to the close.

 

We continue to see a lot of our inbound corn arriving at higher than normal moisture levels. So far in January, over 25% of our daily deliveries are over 16%, with the actual average above 17%.

 

I don’t know what your plan is should that also describe your particular situation, but it should include a master plan of getting that corn moved prior to the 2014 fieldwork season.

 

As we have written many times over the past months, much of the eastern two-thirds of Iowa has had unusually strong basis levels as compared to the rest of the midwest. We are now starting to see some of that strength erode, especially as the rallies are bringing on active selling.

 

The normal pattern of month to month basis strength in carrying charge markets may be replaced by basis levels that are, at best, steady, but more likely going to show weaker values into the spring.

 

This has been one of the longest running inverted market structures in memory, but eventually, markets do return to some degree of normalcy.

 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."