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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk January 15

[ Edited ]

Note:

Martin Luther King Holiday Trading Schedule:

--Once the CME Group farm markets close Friday (regular time), they will not open back up again until Monday night at 7pm.

 

 

Hope this helps,

 

Mike

---------

At 1:15pm:

Wheat and corn markets stay higher, while soybean prices have fallen into negative territory.

 

One analyst says, "For the beans, I am not real sure why they are selling off today.  I think the weather is pretty good in SA and we see some pretty big production estimates coming from there, plus everyone thinks our demand will drop off pretty soon here. So, every day that does not have a bullish story, ie Chinese buying, the market seems to go weak.  Today, no demand news, so no beans rally.  But wheat and corn are seeing a lot of follow-through buying on ideas of tight supplies in part left over from the Friday reports and in part due to bad weather in the Great Plains.  Pretty impressive over there.  Trends in all three markets are up. So, the bean move might be nothing more than a correction, we will see.  I think funds and big specs are getting out of shorts in wheat and getting long and adding to longs in corn after reducing positions a lot.  My commercial guys seem quiet, but I am telling farmers to come up with a game plan for selling, especially in the beans as long as the South America weather holds good.  It could be the weak sister here soon."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March futures corn contract is trading 6 cents higher at $7.30. The March soybean futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $14.19. March wheat futures are trading 15 cents higher at $7.82 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.73 higher at $51.18. The March soymeal futures are trading $4.50 per short ton lower at $413.00.  


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.25 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 89 points lower.

 

Mike

---------

At the open:

The March futures corn contract is trading 4 cents higher at $7.28. The March soybean futures contract opened 5 cents higher at $14.23. March wheat futures opened 4 cents higher at $7.71 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract opened $0.36 higher at $50.81. The March soymeal futures opened $0.60 per short ton lower at $416.90.  


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.32 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points lower.

 

Mike

------------

At 8:30am:

The USDA did not report any fresh export sales this morning. But:

--Japan seeks 1118,746 tons of U.S. and Canadian wheat.

--Taiwan seeks up tp 60,000 tons of corn for March shipment.

--Russia sells 61,603 tons of Intervention grain. Remember, we talked about what Russia selling Intervention grain signals.

--Ukraine's 2012 grain harvest is estimated at 46.17 mmt Tuesday, below a record producing 56.75 mmt in 2011.

 

Also, it's interesting to note that funds are net long corn and soybeans, but net short wheat, right now.

--For corn, funds have net long positions estimated by holding 258,860 contracts.

--For soybeans, funds are net long by 84,880 contracts.

--For wheat, funds hold a net short position by 12,883 contracts

 

Are you long corn and beans like the money machines?

 

Mike

---------

At 7:20am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 14-16 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.26 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, as the market awaits Dec. Retail Sales data, Dec. Producer Price Index data, Home Price Index report, and Nov. Business Inventories. Germany's economy is showing signs of improvement.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mixed, and Europe's stocks are lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,206
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 15

Anybody else hear the rumor China is back at buying beans AGAIN? This time out of the PNW area ports last night. Time they have to make a non refundable deposit.

 

Did you pick up on the note that Wisconcin Beans were going to Indiana crushers.?

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,819
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 15

[ Edited ]

yes hobby check the wsj column I just posted on the "another view" thread.  I think it refers to it.

 

Mike------------- can you direct me to an intervention seed dealer.   I'll try it......     :smileyhappy:

 

 

And hobby,                 I will check my Basketball schedule but Wisc. might be the one getting crushed this week.  :smileyhappy:

 

Yes that was interesting for January.  Crushers are ahead of last years pace in crush as well as exports.  There is no regard for supply shortages.

sw
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,632
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 15

[ Edited ]

Contrary to the doomsayers on these ag websites,  It doesn't appear to me that the grains are getting rationed soon enough.   Fireworks somewhere down the road are inevitable..... prepare for the worst.....and hope for the best.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,819
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 15

roarintiger1,

 

That, IMO was the shocking part of the report.  I have reread it several times and I don't see the rationing in beans at all, and not much in corn.  Even corn,  2/3 of the decrease  in use  from a year ago could be accounted for by things other than price. 

sw
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,206
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 15

[ Edited ]

I have deleted this post as I had second thoughts about it and how it would effect a few that had a truly bad year.  Not all had a rosey year and they don't need a post such as this to act as a burr under the saddle.

 

Suffice to say that I think there are bushels out there and that the majority of free stocks are in the hands of the smaller over 50year old  farmer with the smaller setups that are not hurting for cash or cash flow. To pharaphrase SW's deleted post... "Show me the cash" and "Make my day".

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,819
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk January 15

[ Edited ]
 
sw
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,819
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk January 15

Hey,,,,,,, don't pull her out.. I liked it................  I thought the point was well made and a good one.

sw