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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk January 15

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March corn futures contract closed 5 3/4 cents lower at $4.25. The March soybean futures contract settled 11 cents higer at $13.18. March wheat futures closed 11 1/2 cents lower at $5.67 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract finished $4.40per short ton higher at $434.50. The March soyoil futures closed $0.23 higher at $37.99.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.75 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 115 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futures contract is trading 3 1/4 cents lower at $4.28. The March soybean futures contract is trading 9 cents higer at $13.16. March wheat futures are 4 1/2 cents lower at $5.74 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract is trading $3.30per short ton higher at $433.40. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.21 higher at $37.97.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $1.74 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 124 points higher.

 

Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy Senior Director of agricultural analysis.

"Soybeans have been the most impressive, by far, as it becomes more obvious by the day that the U.S. is the supplier of choice, especially to China.  The size of the South American soybeans crops could be massive but none of the logistical issues found in South America are of concern when buying U.S. soybeans.  At 150 million bushels in carry-out, it’s pretty obvious that’s the USDA’s pipeline number and we’re empty.
 
Too much corn and wheat globally to get much upside traction.  Additionally, the relative weakness in new crop soybean futures suggests that a meaningful acreage shift from corn to soybeans in the U.S. may not be a certainty.  With the November soybean/December corn ratio under 2.5:1, the market is buying corn acres in an over-supplied market.  Not a good scenario.
 
Overall, I’m bearish across the board.  The only story for an upside move is the heat and dryness in Argentina, but it’s way too early in the season to be making assumptions on crop losses."

 

Mike

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At 10:15am:

Soybeans have surged 11 cents. Now, the soybean market has added about 38¢, just this week. Pretty impressive rally. Is it over?

 

 

Mike

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At 10am:

 

FSA announced Wednesday the final 2013 prevented planting acres:

                                Sum of            Sum of            Sum of
                               Planted Acres  Failed Acres     Prevented Acres
ALL CORN              92,118,622       280,019         3,616,862
COTTON- ELS              190,253           145            22,466
COTTON- Upland         7,636,349     2,408,469           208,061
SOYBEANS              75,257,537        41,724         1,703,751
ALL WHEAT             51,024,657     2,764,626         2,013,154
 
It looks like the pp corn acres is about what folks were talking about all along, don't you think? Soybeans maybe a little less?
 
 
MIke
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Since the open:(9:20am)

 

Soybeans have turned up 2 1/2 cents,  corn is down 3 cents, and wheat down 3 cents.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures contract is trading 3 cents lower at $4.28. The March soybean futures contract is trading 2 1/2 cents higer at $12.97. March wheat futures are 1 3/4 cents lower at $5.71 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract is trading1.50 per short ton lower at $428.60. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.02 higher at $37.78.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.24 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 45 points higher.

 

Mike

---------------

At 8am:

--USDA announces that China bought 106,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2014-15 delivery.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly weaker.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.41 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen higher on world growth outlooks.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks higher.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 15

[ Edited ]

Brazil Harvest Update:

Harvest will go fast in the next week. Now, the producers are harvesting the initial 5% of the planted fieds, mainly in Paraná and Mato Grosso, according to Jose Rocher, Gazeta do Povo newspaper editor in Curitiba, Brazil. He shares this information with all of us this morning.
 
Due to a drought of three weeks in December, in some regions they got 50% of the expected production. But, it seems to be an insignificant part of the 2013/14 crop.
 
All of the record-large forecasts are being kept, including Expedição Safra (Crop Expedition) numbers. We believe in 91 million tons for soybean and 34.8 million tons of corn.  
Brazil Soy Harvest 2014 .jpg 

The photos are from Parana and show de harvest at the Ademir Paludo fiels in Palotina (West) and other farm in Campina da Lagoa (Midle West of Paraná).
 
So far, the Brazilian producers have sold 1/3 of the expected production and we have right now good prices, about 10% higher than in January 2013. They have a lot of work to do.

 

Brazil Harvest 2014.jpg

 

So, when will the market start trading this record-large Brazilian soybean crop? It seems to be shrugging it off for now, don't you think?

 

Mike

Advisor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,227
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 15

Does everyone wear that sombrero thing or is that strictly the farmer people?
Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 899
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 15

Mike, do you know how much Brazilian farmers rotate crops? You would almost think the soil would get tired really fast down there with those guys only planting beans, I tried some beans after beans last year and wont do that again.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 15

Blacksandfarmer,

 

It's a soybean country. So, when they can plant soybeans they will. However, they are no different that U .S. farmers in that they will chase the market. So, they increased corn acreage, much like Argentine farmers. In general, over the years, the Brazilian farmers have not had the wherewithal to take care of the soil like you would imagine in the U.S.

That is changing a bit, with better agronomic practices. But, when it's not affordable, the first thing that goes is the soil treatments.

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 15

The market is moving on South America weather news. Here is some more from our sources in Brazil.

 

From Luís Henrique Vieira and AgroSouth:

Harvest of soybeans in Brazil will have its peak in February and March. Because of the increase of soybean production in the country (90.3 million tons, according to the National Supply Company), transportation companies are projecting an increase of at least 10 percent to truck the oilseed from Mato Grosso to some port. The current price to truck soybeans from Rondonópolis, in southern Mato Grosso, is R$ 180 (US$ 76.50)/t0n. With increased demand generated by the harvest, the cost would jump to R$ 240 (US$ 102.12)/ton at the highest point of the season, according to a calculation of Nicolau Bissoni, an associate of Botuverá, a major transportation firm from the region.

A new train terminal was constructed in the region of Rondonópolis and it is operated by America Latina Logística, but according to local players, that will not be enough to keep the prices down.  Companies from the southern state of Paraná, the second largest producer of soybeans in Brazil, also predict similar increases of freight cost.

Rabobank: Soybean prices will be lower than in 2013; Brazil will produce 88 mln tons
A report titled “Perspectives for Brazilian Agriculture” was released by Rabobank in Brazil. The report says that global production of soybeans will be 282 million tons with Brazil being accounted with 88 million tons of output.

The relation of stocks and global consumption will reach 26.5 percent, according to Rabobank. With that, the bank concludes that prices will be lower than in 2013 and Brazilian agriculture will have positive margins with most costs stable if producers have good productivity.

Yet, Rabobank projects that the dollar will be priced at R$ 2.50 (Brazilian reals). As of today, the America dollar costs R$ 2.34 in Brazil. That can be seen as another positive new for exporters in the country.

 

Mike