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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk January 16

At 7am: Happy Martin Luther King Jr Day to everyone. Also, a big thanks to everyone that stopped by on Report day last week. It appears a record-large crowd, in some respects, did stop by and visit. Thanks and much appreciated. No markets today, but plenty to talk about. As I've mentioned before, one analyst says he watches for January price trends in the first and second Friday closes. If the second Friday's close is higher than the first, a higher price trend could be setting in. If the second Friday's close is lower than the first, a lower price-pattern may be on the way. Have you checked those closing prices lately? Friday, January 6: Corn=$6.43 1/2 Soybeans=$11.96 1/2 Friday, January 13: Corn=$6.08 1/2 Soybeans=$11.58 1/4 Do you subscribe to this theory? Have you used it in the past? More in a minute, Mike
Community Manager
marketeye
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Re: Floor Talk January 16

At 8:15am: World markets traded about even today. U.S. Stock markets are closed. Short trading week ahead. Export Inspection Report, regularly released on Monday's and the Weekly Export Sales Report, regularly released on Thursday's, will be delayed this week. Do you suppose the market will trade South American weather? It looks like the forecast is grim for the remainder of the month. What say you? How do you play this market? Will you remain on the sideline and let the uncertainty shake out? Are you already sold out on old-crop and just trying to decide how much new-crop to sell? What's your play and how does your 2012 risk management plan look right now? Mike
Community Manager
marketeye
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Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 16

[ Edited ]

At 8:30am: I'm having a little problem with my posting screen today. So, I'm having to post differently. Anyway, here's a video of a discussion I had with Iowa's USDA-NASS Director. Interestingly, he says Iowa's survey showed higher ear counts and plant population.

 

Here's the video: http://www.agriculture.com/media-center/video/markets/breaking-down-juary-12-rept_7-21598 Mike

Senior Contributor
too close for comfort
Posts: 226
Registered: ‎05-11-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 16

Morning Mike just doing some thumb twittling on the floor today? A three day weekend is probably good right now. Does that traders theory work if the second Fri is before the report?

 

Keep up the good work, Jerry

Community Manager
marketeye
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Re: Floor Talk January 16

too close for comfort, This is a good day to "balance your checkbook", so to speak. I'm curious, as you look at your risk management plan, what is it telling you today? Do you feel comfortable with selling or holding, based on the futures prices and what some say is a firm basis, for most areas? Regarding the analyst's theory about the two Friday closes, I honestly haven't researched the history of this. That's why I was curious to find out if anyone in Marketing Talk has noticed this pattern. Mike
Senior Contributor
too close for comfort
Posts: 226
Registered: ‎05-11-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 16

Well Mike I've sold what I needed to to pay bills. I was wise enough to sell at $7.22 for dec last summer but dumb enough to not sell more thinking I'll sell it at $8.00. But it left me with more bushels in the gambling stash than I'm used to, which is both good and bad. I'm like a lot of people and should have sold more early last week. I don't see anything else coming that could be more bearish so I'll (probably foolishly) hold a while longer. This site has really been an education for me, I can't thank you and the posters enough.  

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 16

I'm glad to hear that the folks on this site have helped you deepen your marketing knowledge. Sounds like you have your hands full with some gambling bushels. :smileyhappy: Maybe if you march on with the mantra of "rewarding the market", that could be a good guidepost. Or, if you don't already, maybe this would be a good time to stick your toes in the options market? As far as anything else bearish coming, you just never know. For instance, if rain shows up in South America, China announces a tightening of its lending due to a housing bubble crashing the Asian country's economy, you might see this grain market get bearishly nervous. If Europe just simply can't avoid an economic collapse, which a lot of experts believe, the U.S. Dollar could go through the roof, putting a lot of pressure on exports. Anyway, those are just a few bearish items. What do you think? Mike
Senior Contributor
too close for comfort
Posts: 226
Registered: ‎05-11-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 16

Gee thanks for the reality check Mike. I've been thinking about options but it's jumping into the unknown for me. I really need to get educated on them before I'm ready. That is a good goal for me for this winter.

 

Thanks for the reports; Jerry 

Community Manager
marketeye
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Re: Floor Talk January 16

At 10:15am: With all of the credit rating downgrades in Europe handed out last week, you would think that would be enough. Not so fast. Russia's credit rating has now been downgraded. And speaking of Russia, because it has been exporting so much wheat, the country may now have a shortage of the grain, according to a Dow Jones Newswire story Monday. However, I think the trade still believes the world is awash in wheat. Mike
Frequent Contributor
JohnQ
Posts: 53
Registered: ‎09-16-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 16

[ Edited ]
How's it going? Relaxed and enjoying it all here. Here's where I'm at (last sentence in particular) on everything just for a refresher. Life is good! :smileyhappy: http://community.agriculture.com/t5/Marketing/Floor-Talk-October-21/m-p/127659#M11674