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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,901
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk January 17

[ Edited ]

At 1pm:

The latest from Brazil and Argentina, according to my Brazilian source.

 

As of Thursday, he says, "Here in Brazil the weather condition is reasonable at this moment. Some states are having serious problems, especially on early-planted areas in Paraná and Mato Grosso. In these areas, the problem was the lack of rain in the growing moment of plants. Anyway, until now this hasn't been a big risk to production.
In South America, the biggest problem is in Argentina, because after a long period of rainfall through December, farmers are now dealing with drought. Farmers are concerned about the pre-sold soybeans, and whether they will have the grain supply.

As of January 10,  90.8% of soybeans were planted, and 88.5% area of corn too."

 

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

The March futures corn contract is trading 5 3/4 cents lower at $7.25. The March soybean futures contract is trading 12 cents lower at $14.24. March wheat futures are trading 6 cents lower at $7.78 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.08 lower at $51.23. The March soymeal futures are trading $6.40 per short ton lowerat $412.70. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.13 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 95 points higher.

 

Better than expected rains in Argentina have trumped soybean export sales.

 

One analyst says, "The selling is just long liquidation today.  
"People wondering if the bean sales are the high for the year, so selling a bit, plus I see Agroconsult talking 84.0 million tons of soybean production estimate for Brazil and they are the high. But, others are talking 82+ million tons. "
So, if you think we are about done with selling soybeans to the Chinese you might be selling futures now, he says.  
Corn and wheat sales were ok and dry weather continues in the Great Plains. "More than expected rains in Argentina is a little negative but still very dry there. And an overall tight soybean situation all around for at least a while longer is still the best support," he says.  
But, the market has had nice rallies since the report Friday, he says. And a nice rally for corn, since before the report. "So, some long liquidation should be expected sooner or later and it looks like it came now. Still think we go higher, maybe again next week," he says.

 

Mike

--------

At the open:

The March futures corn contract is trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $7.28. The March soybean futures contract opened 2 cents higher at $14.39. March wheat futures opened 1 cent lower at $7.83 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract opened $0.16 lower at $51.16. The March soymeal futures opened $1.70per short ton higher at $420.80. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.14 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 62 points higher.

 

Mike

----------

At 9am;

--IGC ups its 2012-13 world corn output by 15 million tons, and wheat up 2 million tons.

 

Mike

------

At 8:15am:

Soybeans are up 7¢, after trading 5¢ lower before 7:30.

 

Mike

----------

At 8am:

On top of the bullish Weekly Export Sales Report, the USDA just announced a fresh sale of soybeans.

 

--On Thursday, an 'unknown' buyer purchased 240,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery, according to the USDA.

 

What do you think? Is the 'unknown' buyer China or India?.

 

Mike

-----------

At 7:30am:

USDA released bullishWeekly Export Sales Report Thursday.

 

Corn=393,300 vs. the trade's expectations of 250,000-475,000 metric tons

Soybeans=1.79 millon metric tons
vs. the trade's expectations of 550,000-750,000 mt.

Wheat= 574,700 mt vs. the trade's ideas of 275,000-425,000 mt

Soybean meal=245,100 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 75,000-150,000 mt.  

 

Mike

----------

At 6:20am:

--Full story on a first in South America. Brazil corn exports surpass Argentina's.

--Strategie Grains Thursday lowered its estimate for the EU's 2013-14 soft wheat harvest by 1.9 million tons to 132.23 mt. This same analyst group dropped the EU's corn output by 0.2 mt to 62.8 mt.

--S. Korea buyer passed Thursday on 70,000 mt of feed wheat.

--Ukraine's grain exports for 2012-13 have been estimated to drop 4% vs. a year ago. Still amply stocks available, according to the Dow Jones Newswirw.

--Japan buys 118,746 tons of U.S., Canadian wheat for Feb-March delivery.

 

Mike

---------

At 6:10am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 5-7cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.28 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening mixed, as the market awaits some major companies lto report earnings Thursday.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mostly lower, and Europe's stocks are mostly higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 1,752
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

Morning Mike

 

Thought I'd ask before it get's busy on here , But what happened to the B-team ? haven't seen much of him lately , is he still on Christmas vacation ?  LOL

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,901
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

[ Edited ]

ECIN,

 

We like to keep the B-Team in an energy saving mode. So, when needed, he fires out on all cylinders.

 

How about them there export sales this morning. You combine the friendly report with SA weather uncertainty and  you might have corn trading higher for a 10th straight day, huh?

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,434
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

[ Edited ]

It's amazing what putting the grain "on sale" does............ Of course this is not helping our lack of supply problems.....Rationing, what rationing?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 1,752
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

You sure that's not a type-O on corn ?? LOL  That's more than we sold the last 3 weeks !  Good thing Ethanol grind was down = like 4415 grind rate  versus USDA at 4500 .

 

Beans ? Unreal ! My question , how do we sustain that kind of pace ? and have any beans left ? I know SA will save the day with there record crop still in the field ! AND boats backed up to the Panama canel waiting to be loaded .

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,901
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

roarintiger1,

 

Look at the new announcement by the USDA at 8am this morning. Whoa!

 

BIG demand for U.s. soybeans. South America must be low on beans or something.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,434
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

Wow is right Mike......we can't possibly keep up this pace for long can we?   Just think what could happen if SA runs into any kind of a production or shipping problem.....Thanks for all you do!  The information and sources you have goes unmatched.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 1,752
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

This has to be from the protein panlc buying before the report last week .

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 750
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

Did IGC say where they raised wheat production at?  

Frequent Contributor
rusureofit
Posts: 64
Registered: ‎05-15-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

At 7:30am:

USDA released bullishWeekly Export Sales Report Thursday.

 

At 9am;

--IGC ups its 2012-13 world corn output by 15 million tons, and wheat up 2 million tons.

 

Who is the IGC?

The International Grain Council made up of Grain importers and exporters.

 

What is their objective?

 

 It seeks to further international cooperation  in grains trade; to promote expansion, openness and fairness in the grains  sector; to contribute to grain market stability and to enhance world food  security.  These objectives are sought by  improving market transparency through information-sharing, analysis and  consultation on grain market and policy developments.

 

How do exporters and importers make money?  Buy buying cheap, the last few weeks prices were cheap and the importers and exporters bought and sold a lot of grain as seen by the big export numbers.  They don't want prices to go up as then exports dry up and their gravy train ends.

 

I am a farmer and like to see higher prices but it looks to me like we have a rat in the feed sack again!