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01-17-2012 06:40 AM - edited 01-17-2012 01:25 PM
At the close:
The March corn futures settled 4 1/4 cents higher at $6.04. The March soybean contract closed 25 1/4 cents higher at $11.83 1/2. The March wheat futures finished 2 1/2 cents higher at $6.04 3/4. The March soymeal futures closed $9.00 per short ton higher at $310.50. The March soyoil futures ended $0.48 higher at $50.77.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.68 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 99 points.
Though prices have pulled back, this floor trader agrees the soybean pit is the leader.
"Soybeans clearly are the leader. Good export inspections (China last week). Corn and wheat have fizzled out. South American weather still a concern, although for corn the damage has been done. Beans still need weather premium. Outside market influence also helping, especially the weakness in the dollar."
At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 4 1/4 cents higher at $6.03 3/4. The March soybean contract is trading 16 3/4 cents higher at $11.75. The March wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $6.02 1/2. The March soymeal futures are trading $5.00 per short ton higher at $306.50. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.27 higher at $50.56.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.52 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 121 points.
One analyst says, "Weather is being traded with assistance from outside markets.
"The grain prices broke late Friday, as weather reports increased expected rains in South America," he says. But, the trade added weather premium back in last night and today, as weekend rains were less-than-expected. In addition, a drier forecast into Friday has been released for drought-stricken areas of Argentina."
Capping gains is talk of rain in Argentina for this weekend, he says.
"This could lead to lower prices Wednesday. But, should the Argentine weather picture dry up, we're poised to fill some of the gap left from last week's crop report," he says..
At the open:
At the open, the March corn futures trade 8 1/4 cents higher at $6.07 1/2. The March soybean contract opened 15 1/4 cents higher at $11.73. The March wheat futures opened 4 3/4 cents higher at $6.07. The March soymeal futures opened $4.40 per short ton higher at $306.00. The March soyoil futures opened higher.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.37 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 119 points.
News & Notes:
--NOPA soybean crush for December was up 4.0 million bushels vs. previous month.
It looks like China's announcement of a better-than-expected fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product, along with less-than-needed rain in Argentina, are creating broad-based commodity rallies Tuesday. In addition, all outside markets are favorable for the grains.
Early calls: Corn 8-9 cents higher, soybeans 15-17 cents higher, and wheat 8-10 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply higher.
Crude Oil=$2.18 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading stronger after a long holiday weekend. Plus, China has reported better-than-expected economic growth.
More in a minute,
01-17-2012 07:28 AM - edited 01-17-2012 08:21 AM
Oh the power of China. When China speaks, the market listens. Though the 4th Quarter GDP is 8.9%, it beat expectations, but is lower than the previous quarter and continues a slide for China. Simply put, today's number signals China's economy is landing softly vs. a hard landing feared months prior. Some U.S. data coming out Tuesday is leaning positive. Therefore, there is a sense of euphoria being felt by the markets Tuesday.
Other helpful market factors this morning include a report that 2% of Brazil's summer corn crop has been harvested. The yields are struggling, due to the dry weather that started in December. Plus, it's been dry in major crop areas of Argentina, for the past four days. Going forward, little rain is expected this week. A nice rain is still in the forecast for this weekend.
And, Japan seeks 185,275 mt of U.S., Canada, and Aussie wheat for March delivery.
01-17-2012 02:19 PM
Maybe tomorrow the market will deal with the fact that 1/3 of Ukraine's wheat is gone. By itself not huge, but if Russia clamps down on exports as threatened we could have at least a minor bump? Wheat's been boring and will be until the situation in the southern plains reaches springtime.