Marketing

[marketeye]

At the close:

The March futures corn contract settled 7 cents lower at $6.90. The Jan. soybean futures contract finished 13 cents lower at $14.05. March wheat futures ended 22 cents lower at $7.55 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract closed $1.36 higher at $50.52.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract closed $13.50 per short ton lower at $407.10.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.04 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 260 points higher.

Mike

---------

At 1pm:

One analyst sizes up the market, so far, like this: "The initial rally came on the news that the fiscal cliff tragedy was off the back of the grain market. So, those holding short positions on its failure bought back those positions on the opening. The opening rally of 10 cents on corn, 25 on beans and 11 for wheat seems a little sharp but note that markets were closed Tuesday and electronic trade did not open until the pit trade began at 9;30 central time. This had two days of pent up buying hit all at once. The selloff came as traders still see a "sell the rally" theme off a weakening demand pace for grains, as weather remains good for South American crops."

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March futures corn contract is trading 8 cents lower at $6.90. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 15 cents lower at $14.03. March wheat futures are trading 20 cents lower at $7.57 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $1.07 higher at $50.23.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $13.60 per short ton lower at $407.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 224 points higher.

Mike

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In early trading (markets turn lower):

At 10:25am:

At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $6.98. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 8 cents lower at $14.10. March wheat futures are trading 8 cents lower at $7.70 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $1.22 higher at $50.38.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $11.00 per short ton lower at $409.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.64 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 224 points higher.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading 8 cents er at $7.06. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 21 cents higher at $14.40. March wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $7.86 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $1.55 higher at $50.71.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.40 per short ton higher at $423.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.49 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 263 points higher.

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$1.23 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher after the U.S. lawmakers passed a bill to avoid the Fiscal Cliff.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[roarintiger1]

Who lit the fuse?    Is it sustainable?  Is it just the beginning?  Or, is it the begining of the end?  Does anyone else feel that export buying will be very common in the next 10 days or so?

Edit.......that was one short rally...........

[Palouser]

I expect hellaciously good wheat sales coming up. US SRW is now cheapest in the world. There are several important insights to be seen in that situation.

[c-x-1]

"weather remains good for South American crops" ??? I feel like Bill Clinton, Mike...clarifying the definition of what "good" is. What the heck, we ask for a definition of "remains", as well....the photos from just six weeks ago or so of flooded fields which looked like oceans....i'm assuming they don't imply "remaining" like that.

[Hobbyfarmer]

In South America, the crop’s planting is almost complete. Yield will

likely be within expectations in Brazil, since the climate in the producing

regions has favored the development of plants. In Argentina,

the initial planting delay was decreased during recent days, and it is

believed that the losses caused by excessive rains may be offset by

acreage increase in drier regions.

ROP DEVELOPMENT – ARGENTINA

Soybean planting advances to the final stretch

in Argentina after the rains gave truce, advancing

by 80.1% of the planned area for cultivation

of the grain. The Cereales Stock Exchange predicts

a loss of 3% in the initially estimated

acreage, due to flooding in the early planting.

For the first week of 2013, climate forecast is

the occurrence of abundant precipitation in

some soybean producing regions, including

central and northern Buenos Aires and Santa

Fé.

This from FC Stone's Jan 2 report

[c-x-1]

Hobby, 2 things:

aren't the area's which were flooded about a MONTH behind schedule...

........and have you looked at th SA Drought Monitor via World Drought Map, particularly 3 and 6 month timeframes? 

[Hobbyfarmer]

2012/13

CROP – FOLLOW-UP

The soybean harvest will likely begin as soon as

January in some regions of Brazil and the crops

are at an advanced stage in most of the producing

areas.

C

ENTER-WEST REGION

Soybean harvest will likely begin during the

first month of 2013 in the states of Brazil’s Center-

West region. The conditions of the plants

may be considered good, with encouraging climate

in recent months. The expectation is that

the yield will be within initial expectations.

Accumulated Precipitation – Center-West Region

December 26

th – January 02nd

Source: Agritempo

S

OUTHERN REGION

In the South, despite the high temperatures

recorded during the day in the producing areas,

bulky and widely spaced rains hit the state last

week, which was conducive to the healthy development

of plants.

Most crops are in the vegetative stage of development.

[c-x-1]

thanks for the details Hobby....i had no idea (now it makes sense that i consider some Brazilian regions are relatively close to equater) that soy was harvested so early - so those regions were planted in Sep...my point being that FC Stone-cone-lone-blone...just one of many companies who amazingly have credibility with forecasting....the facts are always in between the lines and  in the ether for us to see & sniff if we simply know where & how to look.

the other SA factor being logistics - they're not able to "make up" for all end users needs (no matter how much supply they claim they will eventually have in 2013) when they need them, so as time keeps on ticking, the tightness could become parabolic. 

the Jan report for corn is most uncertain...where does most of the risk lay?

Like i mentioned on the "What's your question?" thread, seems to be practically no risk premium in any of the grains currently....it all appears spookily like last Mar-Jun period here where news-wise we still had a bumper crop on the way despite the dryness which was quickly creeping in.

thx, c-x-1