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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,127
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk January 20

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March corn futures settled 5 1/2 cents higher at $6.11 1/2. The March soybean contract closed 10 cents lower at $11.87. The March wheat futures ended 4 1/2 cents higher at $6.10 1/2. The March soymeal futures settled $3.80 per short ton lower at $311.90. The March soyoil futures ended $0.63 lower at $50.43.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.19 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 55 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures trade 1/2 of a cent lower at $6.05 1/2. The March soybean contract is trading 10 3/4 cents lower at $11.86 1/4. The March wheat futures are trading 4 1/4 cents lower at $6.01 1/2. The March soymeal futures are trading $0.70 per short ton lower at $315.00. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.94 lower at $50.12.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.34 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 44 points.

 

One floor trader says, "Cheap world feed-wheat has rallied sharply, to where US is competitive. So, feed grains find support. The Former Soviet Union's shallow port capacity and cold weather usually slows export logistics this time of year. Plus, there has been some fear that they have oversold there capacity. Wheat is a record short so it helps to support the market.
Weekend rains predicted with a chance to add back acres and yield in beans. For corn, perhaps it's too late. So, that is bearish beans for now.
Thursday's exports were good but too late. U.S. bean exports remain 405 million bushels behind last year's pace, while USDA has only discounted soy exports by I believe 225. We are three weeks from the main Brazil harvest starting.
 
I have rain in argy this weekend and Southern Brazil Tues-Wednesday  then another system Feb 2 and Feb 3.
Basis push in SA for now suggest a few more meal exports so meal spread short cover a little.
Meanwhile, soy oil market is watching energy slump and is bracing for slower bio-diesel numbers that will be out next week, reflecting the loss of the $1 a gallon tax subsidy."

 

Mike

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At 10:38am:

 

Informa releases 2012 acreage estimates:


Corn=94.748 million acres. Whew!!

Soybeans=74.568 million

Spring Wheat=13.493 million

Winter Wheat=41.947 million.

 

What do you think about that corn number? Is it too high, just right, or below what you think it should be?

 

Thanks for sharing,

 

Mike

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At 10:30am:

Corn has turned higher. Buying has stepped in.

 

Mike

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At 10:20am:

All markets are lower. One floor trader sizes it up like this: " The strong market yesterday had everything to do with the market digesting announcements of corn and bean export sales to S Korea, Mexico( corn) and China (beans). The market was waiting for the sharply lower prices in both commodities to generate interest...and they did. Even though needed rain occurred in SA forecast, there is an opinion in the market that some sales that typically go to SA will end up moving to US if supply concerns in SA turn out to b true. Today, of course, the opposite is occurring, as the market seems to be focusing on good weather, lower oil , hangover from bearish USDA reports etc… Informa out at 10:30 with acreage estimates will move market if out of line."

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures trade unchanged at $6.06. The March soybean contract opened 5 1/4 cents lower at $11.91 1/2. The March wheat futures opened 3/4 of a cent higher at $6.06 1/2. The March soymeal futures opened $0.60 per short ton lower at $315.10. The March soyoil futures opened $0.34 lower at $50.72.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.91 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 56 points.

 

Mike

--------------

At 8:43am:

Early Calls should be changed to higher, probably. It makes you think that even if we start lower, the markets could turn higher fairly quickly, with demand so strong. But, more rain is being called for this weekend in Argentina. So, will the markets trade demand or weather?

 

Also, keep in mind that Informa, the private analyst firm, releases updated 2012 U.S. Acreage Estimates at 10:30am today.

 

Mike

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At 7:31am:

USDA released friendly corn and soybean export sales Friday.

 

Corn=759,900 mt v s. the trade's expectations of 350,000-600,000 mt.

Soybeans= 991,100 mt  vs. the trade's expectations of 500,000-900,000 mt.

Wheat=590,200 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 350,000-600,000 mt.

 

Also, some Early Calls have corn and wheat up slightly and soybeans down 2-4 cents. Could be a choppy opening, be watchful.

 

If you dig deeper into the Export Sales Report, you'll find that Mexico, S. Korea and China, in that order, were the biggest buyers of U.S. corn last week. With China buying the most, U.S. soybean sales were up 95% vs. the four-week average. For wheat, Japan was the biggest buyer last week.

 

Mike

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At 6:40am:

On Friday, a S. Korea buyer purchases 225,000 metric tons of feed wheat of optional origin for April-May delivery. Over 1.0 mmt  of feed wheat has been purchased in January by South Korean buyers.

 

USDA Weekly Export Sales will be out at 7:30am CST. The trade expects corn exports of 350-600,000 metric tons (mt), soybeans at 500-900,000 mt, meal at 50,000-150,000 mt, and wheat at 350-600,000 mt.

 

REMINDER: If you can't stick around your computer until 7:30am to get the export numbers, you can go to our mobile site on your cell phone. Type into your smartphone m.agriculture.com and you can get the Marketing Talk discussion group on your phone. Let me know if you need help pulling it up.

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls: Corn 4-6 cents lower, soybeans 7-9 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.62 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading flat with more company earnings in site and the Greeks meet with creditors.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific higher, while Europe stocks are lower.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,098
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 20

Mike,

 

Don't you think the report about rain and shifting exports to the US from Brazil will affect us positively today?  I know oil is lower and the Greeks are trying to get a deal down but thought this would take more importance.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,127
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 20

It's well known the market is keeping one eye on that whole weather situation in South America. I think the facts that the funds are pouring into the ag commodities this week, combined with fresh export news are helping lift soybeans 36¢ higher on the week, so far.

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,127
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 20

Anybody else hear that ADM paid 30¢ over for corn yesterday? Looks like competition is heating up for U.S. corn, both domestically and globally. What say you?

 

Mike

 

Senior Contributor
teaspoon73
Posts: 210
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 20

  There was some farmer selling before the usda report, that has virtually dried up with the down move in prices based on traders expectations. The reality is the report stated their is very little excess corn, and farmers are holding tight to old crop supplies. The spotty rains in S. A. isn't making a bumper crop simply stalling a disaster. Now  the buyers are coming to the supplier of last resort..  Basis will start to tighten again

Veteran Advisor
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Posts: 2,432
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 20

Selling has probably slowed down - I've quite, for example, but pre-sold grain is still shipping at a pretty good rate.  I wonder how soon the processors will need to get heavily back in the market?

Contributor
werkman53
Posts: 14
Registered: ‎01-20-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk January 20

Illinois basis update:

 

Not sure about +30 yesterday, but Decatur IL ADM was +23 spot as of this morning. Decatur Tate and Lyle is +19 spot. Locally(NW Central IL) we are +10 for delivery in March.

 

The basis for IL ethanol plants has moved 20 cents in just over a month.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,568
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 20

Demand construction.........I like it.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,127
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 20

werkman53,

 

At one point last month, I heard that ethanol plants were sending postcards to central Illinois farmers asking for corn. This is the first time this has happened to central Illinois farmers. Is that still happening?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Contributor
werkman53
Posts: 14
Registered: ‎01-20-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk January 20

I have not received one or heard of it, but that isn't to say it has not happened further south of me where the corn production suffered more and there is a lot less corn than usual. The plants around here are just bidding it up, competing with the local elevators. Most of the local elevator locations with any feed mills are offering free price later deals.