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01-22-2013 06:27 AM - edited 01-22-2013 02:25 PM
At the close:
The March futures corn contract closed 1 cent higher at $7.28. The March soybean futures contract finished 22 cents higher at $14.51. March wheat futures closed 6 cents higher at $8.43 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract finished $0.75 higher at $52.43. The March soymeal futures finished $7.20 per short ton higher at $421.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.67 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 36 points higher.
One analyst say, "Soybeans are up on less than expected rains in Arg over the weekend with little in the forecast. Increasing talk about losses there, and I think they are happening. Corn, too, but corn does not seem to want to go. Specs buying beans, seen some Brazil selling on the rally, but not much from here. Some spec profit taking but the big boys seem to want to own it.
Wheat is a mystery to me, it is down hard and I don’t really know why. No winterkill, as temps will not get cold enough far enough south. But, even so, there should be reason to think of losses as there is no real precipitation in the forecast for the plains either. The rest of the world is also with some problems, i.e. Argentina low quality and less production, Russia maybe too cold. No real reason for the selling unless you want to talk weak demand but demand has been ok.
Corn is between the two extremes with little news either way to move prices, so far. Should be doing better, but so far not.
Wheat a real mystery to me. Export inspections good in all markets, especially soybeans but good in all of them. Some trying to talk Russian demand for the wheat rally last week and ideas they will not buy much right away for the selling, but it seems like a lot to me for that kind of news," he says.
The March futures corn contract is trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $7.28. The March soybean futures contract is trading 22 cents higher at $14.51. March wheat futures are trading 9 cents lower at $7.82 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.69 higher at $52.37. The March soymeal futures are trading $7.30 per short ton higher at $421.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.33 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 19 points higher.
At the open:
The March futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $7.30. The March soybean futures contract opened 18cents higher at $14.47. March wheat futures opened 1 cent higher at $7.92 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract opened $0.54 higher at $52.22. The March soymeal futures opened $5.90 per short ton higher at $420.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.10 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points lower.
--USDA announces Tuesday that China purchased 120,000 tons of optional origin soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.
Here is the official announcement:
Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture optional origin sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2013-2014 marketing year. An optional origin contract provides that the origin of the commodity may be the U.S. or one or more other exporting countries.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.
USDA issues both daily and weekly export sales reports to the public. Exporters are required to report to USDA any export sales activity of 100,000 metric tons or more of one commodity, made in one day to one destination, by 3 p.m. Eastern time on the next business day following the sale. Export sales of less than these quantities must be reported to USDA on a weekly basis.
--Russis sells more Intervention Grain Tuesday.
--Russia's grain exports from July-Jan. 9 are down 27% vs. a year ago. The exports total just 13.19 mmt vs. 18.0 mmt in the same timeframe a year ago. The grain exports for this new marketing year are estimated at 15.5 mmt, up from the Ag Minister's previous estimate of 10-12 mmt. So, maybe the export picture, for Russia, is looking up.
--AgResource stated in its daily wire to customers that "Bull flag formations are being formed - with upside price
projections at; $7.70-7.80 March corn and $15.20-15.40 in March beans. Wheat
has already broken through its technical resistance on Friday with a target of
--Japan seeks 118,787 tons of wheat.
--Although the technical signals are neutral, fundamental weather concerns in U.S., Europe and South America have the wheat bulls perking up their ears, this week.
--Speaking of technicals. Here is a chartist's point of view on this week's corn market.
Tom White, a CME Group pit trader says a move higher is in-focus. "The market tested to the daily mid-line area on the Andrews pitchfork as we had suggested last week. We then saw several days of consolidation trade. This is not unusual after a test of the pitchfork, particularly when the slope of the pattern is relatively flat.
We also stopped near the top of a weekly regression trend line. Closing above this line on a weekly basis could generally be considered a bullish sign; we’ll thus monitor to see how the market re-acts this week.
Several pattern(s) suggest the potential for higher price action despite how we held at/near the lines mentioned above. The 60-minute chart shows a market which flattened out after an impulsive move higher. This is generally indicative of a market which is “pausing” before making another move in the direction of the initial move. Secondly, the market turned from higher prices at lower RSI values which is usually a bullish sign on positive reversals," White says.
Early calls: Corn is seen 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 16-18 cents higher, and wheat 5-7cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.03 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening mixed, as investors await a slew of company earnings Tuesday.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mostly lower, and Europe's stocks are mostly lower.
Separately, Agriculture.com covered the annual ADM Investor Services brokerage meeting in Chicago. Here's what we found out: 2013 corn could go to $4 or $9.
More in a minute,
01-22-2013 07:23 AM
I am writing from Porto Alegre, southern Brazil.
Probably what the market has been worried about South America is that the soybean harvest has paralyzed for a while in the Center-western part of Brazil. So far, just four percent of the total soybean crop has been harvested. In the year, the amount of rain was 315 millimeters, but 228 mm ocurred just this weekend.
On one side, the strong rains are stopping the harvest, on the other, the weather was to dry in the last few days. Rain is likely to continue in February.
01-22-2013 07:45 AM - edited 01-22-2013 07:48 AM
Wow! 228 mm equals 8.9 inches of rain in one weekend! That is a lot of rain all at once.
For the year, the area has had a total of 315 millimeters which equals 12.4 inches.
And you are saying the outlook for February is more torrential rains?
Thanks for sharing,
01-22-2013 08:24 AM - edited 01-22-2013 08:57 AM
Your comments, this morning, from southern Brazil were picked up by a Marketeye follower in Paraguay. This contact in Paraguay says:
"Good morning. Small detail about Mato Grosso, where Luis told it rained 228m. Itis too WET for soybeans. Also weather is damaging crops in Rio Grande do Sul because it istoo dry, no rain. Also, in Paraguay it hasn't rained for 15 days. And, Argentina's weather is too dry, damaging crops. The market is starting to disbeleive the "fabulous" figures of super crop."
He goes onto say, "The soil moisture is diminishing....it must rain in the next week or 10 days, otherwise it could start to be problematic.
In Argentina, these figures of a 52-54 mmt crop are a dream. I reckon if we get to 50 mmt it will be great. And here in Paraguay, we started with ideas of 8mmt, it went up to 9mmt, and are back down to 8mmt, if it doesn't rain."
And in a local paper in Paraguay, this morning's headline story reads:
The lack of rain over two weeks in some productive areas is reducing the prospects of soybean yields, mainly from the late varieties, said yesterday the Agr. Rubén Sanabria, president of the Agricultural Coordinator of Paraguay (CAP), a subsidiary of Alto Parana, according to ABC Color newspaper.
"The drought in some cases is now up to 20 days and is worrisome, especially the strong heat that is alternated with southerly winds that dry plots and lead to water stress," he said.
Soybean plots were planted late, which are currently at the stage of pod-filling, are those most affected by the drought, he said.
He added that many of the fractions of soybean were sown late in the colonies Mariscal Lopez, Leopoldo Perrier and other areas required by peasant invasions.
Alto Paraná estimated that some 820,000 hectares were planted to soybeans, whereas nationally it is believed there are about 3 million hectares.
So, and this is Marketeye talking again. It looks like the South Americans feel this weather market has some legs.
01-22-2013 08:26 AM
Intervention Grain is like a reserve fund. I'm told that the more Russia sells from this fund, it signals shortage of grain. But, last week, the Minister signaled that the fund has plenty to get the country through its marketing year. We'll see.
01-22-2013 08:38 AM
Yes. The month of January in Rio Grande do Sul didn't bring many rainy days. Also, the perspective is that we will not see any drops in the next two weeks in the Northeast part of the state, where there are lot of soybeans crops. Not more than 3 mm. Here in the capital and largest capital, Porto Alegre, we would join the rain because was also a dry month.