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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk January 23

[ Edited ]

At the close;

The March futures corn contract closed 7 cents lower at $7.29. The March soybean futures contract settled 14 cents lower at $14.37. March wheat futures ended 4 cents lower at $7.74 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract finished $0.40 lower at $52.03. The March soymeal futures finished $5.10 per short ton lower at $416.50. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.38 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 80 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-day:

The March futures corn contract is trading 5 cents lower at $7.23. The March soybean futures contract is trading 11 cents lower at $14.40. March wheat futures are 5 cents lower at $7.73 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.26 lower at $52.17. The March soymeal futures are trading $4.40 per short ton lower at $417.20. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.58 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 68 points higher.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March futures corn contract is trading 1 cent lower at $7.27. The March soybean futures contract opened 1 cent lower at $14.50. March wheat futures opened 1 cent lower at $7.78 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract opened $0.06 lower at $52.36. The March soymeal futures opened $1.40 per short ton higher at $423.00. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.13 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

 

--Another signal that the U.S. corn 'store' is not alone on "export" street. IGC adds more prices to figure daily index. Read full story here.

--Japan seeks 320,000 tons of feed wheat,  barley. Their regular sources are Canada, Australia, U.S. France.

--Russia sells 64,530 tons of Intervention fund grain.

 

 

Mike

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At 6:25am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2cents higher, soybeans steady, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading slightly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.04 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, with all eyes on the House's debt ceiling vote at noon. The vote is to extend the ceiling until May. Smooth vote means the stock market bulls will run the place, a rough and tumble vote means a possible lower stock market.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mostly higher and Europe's stocks are mostly higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,093
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 23

This soybean market is a rollercoaster.  UP, Down, UP, waiting for the Down in a little bit.

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,093
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 23

Now, we need this Mother to go back up. 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 23

north ia farmer asked the question about what traders think this market will do under a regular planting and growing weather season. Here are two perspectives from floor traders:

 

One trader says, "I am trying to make the case that the underpinnings of the markets have changed a lot. For instance, we are seeing increased cultivation in other lands, aggressive exports out of Brazil Ukraine., FSU etc.. Also, flattening of ethanol mandate growth and recovery from drought shortened crops, all make the case for lower prices next year. If Informa is write on corn acres we will recover above a 10% stocks-to-use in corn supplies, more if yields are normal. Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere gets first shot at recovering bean supplies. So, I am at a $10-$11 bean objective and $5.10 new-crop corn objective. There are others who are more bearish than that. I do think the energy markets and the Chinese can intercede at relatively higher prices. But, that’s why I am not a 9 dollar guy in beans or 4 dollar guy in corn.

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Yet another trader says, "There are a few questions that are raised for the coming year. Obviously, weather is one and demand the other. Demand will continue to be strong. That is probably going to be a given in most circles going forward. As the saying goes, you can take a man in China off his bike and introduce him to a car but it is nearly impossible to take him out of his car and put him back on his bike.
I think the real worry is a nutrient worry.
The yields last year were pitiful in a lot of counties across the country. The nutrients already in the soil and the nutrients added were not really tapped. If we have some decent and timely rains I think that the farming community is beginning to fear a crop on steroids. Those nutrients not used last year plus whatever is added this year could produce a bumper crop, if we get the moisture. That could send us to $4.50 in a hurry, even with decent demand. Obviously, lower prices would probably spur demand, but the size of the crop could be a heavy weight to hold.
But, with no rains we could have another drought year....which makes me think that this year is going to be a really big crop or a really small crop - nothing in between. This will ultimately prove to be a difficult year to hedge, market and trade," he says.

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,136
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 23

[ Edited ]

Mike,

 

thank you for those 2 perspectives...good one, "crops on steroids"........what is sticking with me is the CERTAIN VOLATILITY these markets will express probably through fall (harvest lows or harvest run-a-way conditions)

 

..........being a glass half full kind of trader and analyst, this will equate to MORE opportunity for traders AND farmer/producers alike who have a plan to manage risk, market and when to capitalize on the "all or nothing" uncertainty which will be played out.

 

c-x-1

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,453
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 23

Mike my eye keeps returning to those reports of Russia selling "Intervention fund grain".

Can that be interpreted as Russia choosing to use their own reserves while waiting on the chance that 2013 will bring improved world stocks----(they believe the price will go down in that case----at least some)

There is a lot of potential for improved production in grains in that part of the world if the politicals desire it.

sw
Senior Contributor
too close for comfort
Posts: 222
Registered: ‎05-11-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 23

[ Edited ]

With the recent run up in prices it might be time for China to cancel some more purchases.